Packers Face a Familiar Foe in Divisional Round

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Photo Credit: Mike Morbeck

The Seahawks have several memorable and absolutely crushing victories over the Packers, including the epic Green Bay collapse in the 2014 NFC Championship game, but outside of that and the Fail Mary, the Packers have handled Seattle quite well. They’ll have to do it one more time if they want to advance to the 2019 NFC Championship game, where either San Francisco or Minnesota will be waiting. On the plus side, the Packers match up well with the Seahawks in all important ways, with one exception. Unfortunately, that one is Russell Wilson.

The Badger alum is, to a large extent, the entire Seattle offense. His ability to buy time and throw the league’s most accurate deep ball is trouble for any opponent, but especially for a Packer defense prone to allowing big plays. Wilson would be the obvious choice for league MVP if not for Lamar Jackson of Baltimore, and you can make a decent case he should win the award anyway. While Jackson operated in a brilliant offense specifically tailored to his skillset, Wilson works in one of the league’s most primitive schemes. Seahawks’ head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer remain true believers in the power of establishing the run, going so far as to re-enlist Marshawn Lynch out of retirement. Starting running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were lost to injury over the course of the season, and Lynch will likely see a lot of work against Green Bay. The superior option is probably rookie Travis Homer, as Lynch, unsurprisingly, doesn’t seem like his old self, but Homer will likely be limited to passing downs. Seattle is a fine running team, but they run far too much early in games, and they often put the offense in poor down-and-distance situations, necessitating Wilson’s heroics.

Seattle was comically lucky in one-score games this season, going 9-2, but a large part of that luck was Wilson’s brilliance in digging them out of bad situations. If you let Seattle hang around, they are extremely dangerous as time starts to wind down. If you take your foot off the gas against them, you deserve to lose. 

While their receiving corps isn’t deep, it is good at the top. Tyler Lockett is one of the league’s best and most underrated receivers, and he works well with rookie deep threat D.K. Metcalf, the unquestioned star of their Wild Card victory over Philadelphia. Metcalf is a straight-line burner coming off a 160-yard, one-touchdown performance, who will test the Packers’ deep secondary. 

Seattle’s offense can be great, but their defense is a different story. The Seahawks are just 15th against the pass and 26th against the run, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. If the Packers do get a lead, they should be able to lean on Aaron Jones to control the game, though running too much with a lead can play into Seattle’s hands. In terms of pass defense, usually mediocre squads have a big hole or two in the secondary, but that’s not really the case with Seattle. They struggle against tight ends, but they don’t really excel against any types of receivers, and Davante Adams and Allen Lazard should have plenty of opportunities for success. Seattle’s biggest weakness is the middle of the field, and Lazard, who has seen plenty of time in the slot, and Aaron Jones should hit them there as much as possible.

This is a very winnable game for Green Bay. Teams that lose to Seattle tend to self-destruct. If Green Bay can avoid the big mistake while not getting too conservative, they should be in good shape.

McCarthy to Dallas

Former Packer head coach Mike McCarthy must have had quite the interview down in Dallas, where he reportedly spent the night at the Jerry Jones estate and woke up the next morning head coach of the Cowboys. 

McCarthy has been attempting to reinvent himself over the past year, making a show to everyone about his attempt to incorporate new ideas and analytics into his coaching style. He also walks into a potentially great situation. The struggle for the Cowboys will be in maintaining their core despite a tight cap caused by overpaying running back Ezekiel Elliott. If they can work out new deals with quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver Amari Cooper, McCarthy will have a Super Bowl contender in 2020. 

Dallas was one of the most unusual teams in NFL history this season, winning exclusively by blowing out their opponents and losing exclusively in close, agonizing fashion. The Packers actually handed the Cowboys one of their worst losses of the season in winning by 10. Dallas had the third best point differential in the NFC after San Francisco and New Orleans, and it’s unprecedented for a team that outscored their opposition by over 100 points to go 8-8. Whether those close losses were mostly bad luck or bad coaching, they are unlikely to repeat next season. McCarthy inherits what was essentially a 12-win team in terms of talent, and don’t be surprised if he has the Cowboys back in the postseason immediately.