Packers Fall to Jets in Worst Performance of the Season

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Photo: Evan Siegle - packers.com

Packers - Jets at Lambeau Oct. 16, 2022

Aaron Rodgers and Royce Newman (70) against the Jets at Lambeau on Oct. 16, 2022

The Packers now have a major problem, and most of it can be traced back, in some form or another, to starting guard Royce Newman. Newman was a supplementary fourth round pick in the 2021 NFL draft, and put together a rough, but somewhat promising rookie season. Unfortunately, 2022 has been an absolute disaster as he’s allowed pressure on Aaron Rodgers at an unsustainable rate.

It’s not unusual to have a few lesser players on any given team, but the Packers seem to be oblivious to this specific problem. Their best five linemen surely include tackles Yosh Nijman, and almost certainly requires Elgton Jenkins moving over from tackle to guard. Unfortunately, there are politics at work as Jenkins is a free agent soon and would probably like to be paid as a tackle, while the continuing recovery of David Bakhtiari still requires Nijman as a backup left tackle, limiting his practice reps at right tackle, where he has far less experience. On the line, it looks like off-field concerns are dictating personnel usage, and it’s not the only area.

Jaire Alexander, who is much more suited to slot corner than Rasul Douglas, finally saw some substantial time there this week, but it took weeks for it to happen when it was fairly obvious from week one. A more permanent switch would increase the value of both players. It’s also strange that running back AJ Dillon continues to out-snap Aaron Jones, who has gained 123 more yards than Dillon on three fewer carries.

Head coach Matt LaFleur can call a good play, and he has been fairly successful at managing personalities, but this season it appears that players are having too much influence on coaching decisions, to the detriment of the team. Drastic changes need to happen, and those changes are unlikely to make veterans happy.

Pressure up the Middle

The other problem with Royce Newman is the specific type of bad play he brings to the table. He consistently allows pressure up the middle, robbing Rodgers of his ability to step up and deliver a strong ball. In his younger days, this may not have been as much of a problem for Rodgers, as the rest of the line tends to hold up quite well, and his mobility used to be sufficient to work around a lesser blocker upfront. That is no longer the case, as Rodgers’ general mobility has clearly taken a hit, and where he used to be one of the NFL’s best under pressure, this season he has been one of the worst, by any metric.

This impacts the entire offense, as, without a healthy Christian Watson or Sammy Watkins, the team lacks a plausible deep threat, which permits opposing defenses to play with more pressure, and more aggressive man-to-man coverage in the secondary. More defenders closer to the line makes things harder for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the run game, and for Dillon in particular, as he tends to be the back on obvious running downs, and tends to face heavy fronts more often.

Outside of receiver depth and injuries, most of this is fixable with some simple personnel shifts, but it will take some backbone from Matt LaFleur, and while LaFleur brings a lot to the table, he doesn’t always have a stern hand when one is needed. In this case, the good of the team would be served by certain veterans playing something other than their favorite positions. It would also benefit from Rodgers running the highly schemed, high-motion LaFleur offense, rather than the more static shotgun-based offense that the quarterback prefers. At some point, the coach has to be the coach.

The silver lining to this game is that the defense actually played quite well, especially in the first half. Most of those plaudits should go to the secondary, which held Jets receivers to just four catches for 66 yards. Unfortunately, as the offense repeatedly failed, and the Packers suffered uncharacteristic special teams breakdowns, the defense eventually buckled, and once again was gashed on the ground by the New York running game. Backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter, and receiver Braxton Berrios collectively ran for 177 yards and averaged over 6.5 yards per carry. Linebackers Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell continue to struggle in the run game, and lineman Den Lowry just cannot be allowed to play on run downs.

Nothing’s Unfixable

There is a lot to fix, but nothing unfixable. The problem is that each and every problem requires some serious self-scouting, and critical assessment of what the issues really are. That analysis needs to come from coaches and players who have struggled with self-reflection in the past. Joe Barry seems as inflexible with his scheme ever, when most Packer defensive issues can be solved with more sub packages, more man coverage, and more creativity upfront. Barry’s scheme is from the Vic Fangio school of defense, and Fangio would be horrified to see what a mess he’s made of it. LaFleur needs to push Elgton Jenkins inside to guard, at least until he’s fully recovered from his ACL, a process that is more likely to take 18 months than nine. He needs to bench Royce Newman (and Jake Hanson, who is no better), and either play Nijman at right tackle, or try rookie Zach Tom or Sean Rhyan on the inside.

More than anything, Aaron Rodgers needs to take a look at his own play, and stick with LaFleur’s scheme, at least until he has his full complement of receivers available. Rodgers constantly thinks of himself as the smartest person in the room, but as we have seen, that is often not the case. I have no faith that he will make any concessions to his head coach, but if they want to get back to their 2019 and 2020 levels of production, he needs to learn to like pre-snap motion, run proper RPOs (which currently make up a ridiculous 27% of the offense), and stop throwing ill-advised shot plays to double covered receivers, especially on 3^rd and short. Pride goeth before the fall, after all.