Packers Final Grades Show Promise and Concern

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PHOTO CREDIT: KEITH ALLISON

The Packers were extremely successful in going 13-3 and securing the number two seed and a first-round bye before finally bowing out in the NFC Championship game. That said, their record reflected a team that succeeded well beyond the sum of its individual parts. While the roster took a huge step forward from last season due to Brian Gutekunst’s aggressive foray into free agency, there is still much room for improvement, especially at the sport’s most important positions.

Quarterbacks

Grade: B-

Aaron Rodgers is still a very good quarterback who still occasionally shows off the brilliant play that once made him an MVP. Unfortunately, the current version of Rodgers has far too many games where he is the team’s biggest problem, as was the case against Detroit, Washington and San Diego. He has developed too many bad habits, and the book on stopping him is widely available and understood by most defensive coordinators.

Rodgers is conservative to a fault, and he refuses to make any risky throws, even in situations where taking a risk is warranted. His tendency to hold onto the ball (he ranked 34th out of 38 qualifiers in Next Gen Stats “Time to Throw” metric) leads to unnecessary hits and additional sacks, and while he remained healthy this season, the hits take their toll. Holding onto the ball can be fine if the quarterback produces big plays as a result, but Rodgers opted for checkdowns or comebacks far too frequently, and he ended the season ranked just 17th in yards per attempt and 18th in yards per completion among qualified quarterbacks. Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic, he was a pedestrian 13th, behind both Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins within the division.

That doesn’t mean Rodgers is a worse quarterback than either, but it does mean Green Bay is getting less production from the position than their division rivals, which is concerning. Green Bay managed to move some of Rodgers’ 2020 cap hit up into 2019, which will keep his salary more or less in line with his production, but he’s slated for a $15 million raise in 2021. It is incumbent upon the front office to put better weapons around their star to stave off further decline. If they struggle to do so, the position could become an actual problem in short order. 

Offensive Line

Grade: A

Despite a down year from starting left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was clearly injured most of the season, it’s impossible to give this unit anything short of an A. Eighty percent of Bakhtiari is still a top 10 tackle, and combined with the efforts of those around him, this unit was nothing short of dominant, leading the league’s seventh best rushing attack while leading the league in pass block win rate as a unit. While the Packers give up far more sacks than an average team, the blame for that falls almost exclusively to Rodgers, who almost always attempts to buy additional time and runs himself into sacks. The fact is that his line also provides him more time than any other.

Bryan Bulaga was the star of the 2019 unit, locking down the left side in dominating fashion, while staying healthy for essentially the entire year. Rookie Elgton Jenkins was nearly as good on the inside and may already be one of the five best guards in football at a young age. He figures to be an interior fixture at the position for years. Corey Linsley was well above average at center, and while Billy Turner is perhaps the least heralded of Brian Gutekunst’s 2019 free agent class, he still provided an enormous upgrade over what they had in 2018. Alex Light’s play may have knocked this grade down a peg, however Gutekunst’s midseason acquisition of Jared Veldheer provided quality depth, relegating Light to emergency duty. Lucas Patrick performed well when called upon to do so.

Offensive line was the team’s best unit of 2019, and they are set up well to continue to produce at a high level going forward.

Wide Receiver

Grade: D

Davante Adams wasn’t himself after suffering an injury against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he was still the unquestioned star of the receiver corps. Unfortunately, the offense was too reliant on his ability to make people miss at the line as Aaron Rodgers often settled for quick bubble screens or flat throws to Adams, rather than including him as a normal part of the offense. The result was his least efficient season of his career, ranking 43rd in DVOA, failing to crack 1000 yards and putting up as many sub-60-yard totals as 100-yard totals. Adams routinely scouts better than he produces, and this was largely a wasted season for the talented vet. 

As much as Adams struggled, he was positively brilliant compared to Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). After catching 21 balls in the first seven weeks of the season and providing a legitimate deep threat opposite Davante Adams, MVS caught only six passes the remainder of the season, including the playoffs. He seemed unable to master the route tree outside of the “go” route, and he looked a step slow down the stretch. It’s possible he played injured for stretches this season, but that doesn’t change the fact that he simply isn’t a complete receiver. He caught fewer than 50% of his targets, which is poor even for a deep threat, and as he offers virtually nothing on special teams, his future with the team is uncertain. Football Outsiders ranked 81 receivers by DVOA in 2019, and MVS finished 73rd.

The most amazing thing about MVS is he wasn’t the lowest-ranking Packer. That honor belongs to Geronimo Allison, who finished 80th out of 81 qualifiers. He made one of the most important catches of the season against Seattle on a key 3rd and long, but outside of that, he was a disaster, averaging only 8.4 yards per reception (almost unfathomable for a wide receiver), fumbling twice, and committing three penalties. That’s five crushing plays on only 34 touches. The 2020 wide receiver draft class is said to be among the best ever. The Packers should take full advantage as even average receivers would provide a colossal upgrade over Allison and Valdes-Scantling. 

After Adams, the lone bright spot was the late-season emergence of Allen Lazard. Lazard was crucial to winning several close games, and for a young, unheralded player, his route running was superb. Lazard isn’t a burner, but he has well above average agility for a big receiver, and he was able to leverage his size and agility when creating separation. Lazard was not without his faults, and at times he was confused by the play call and ran the wrong routes altogether, but that’s to be expected from a player who didn’t get starters’ reps until halfway through the season. Lazard is also the best run-blocker among the wide receivers, as well as their best special teams coverage man. Former undrafted free agents need to do the little things to stick around and get their chances. Lazard has done so brilliantly, and while he may be stretched a bit as a No. 2 receiver, he would be a phenomenal 3rd. With a full season of real reps, there’s even some star potential there.

Jake Kumerow is nearly as good in run-blocking as Lazard, but not as dangerous when asked to catch the ball. He does occasionally manage to make a big play and he was featured on a few successful gadget plays this season, but this is probably his ceiling. He’s a try-hard guy, perfect for the end of a bench. He’s also completely expendable if better options come along.

Running Backs

Grade: A

Aaron Jones established himself as one of the NFL’s premier running backs. For the bulk of his career, Jones has graded out as one of the most efficient backs in the league, but his use was limited due to injury and coaching preferences. He also used to struggle in the passing game, both as a receiver and in blitz pickup. This season, all came together as he finally became the featured back many imagined he could be. While his yards-per-carry numbers did drop from 5.5 to 4.6, this is largely attributable to his work grinding clock against stacked boxes late in games. He was one of the NFL’s best after contact, he put several crushing blocks on film, and while he still occasionally struggled as a safety valve, his ability to stretch defenses down the field as a receiver was invaluable. 

According the advanced metric “Expected Points Added” (EPA), when Jones was on the field, the Packers were the league’s best offense. Jones finished seventh in rushing DVOA, adding another top 10 finish to his young career. 

Jamaal Williams ended up with a lot of the dirty work while Jones got the glory, but don’t sleep on Williams’ contributions. While Jones improved in the passing game, Williams is still the better blocker, and, according to DVOA the better receiver as he finished eighth among running backs. Williams isn’t as flashy, and as a pure rusher, Jones is clearly superior, but he served as Aaron Rodgers’ protector and safety valve on most 3rd and long plays; as long as he continues to keep 12 clean, he’ll have a role. 

Danny Vitale was a nice gadget player early before succumbing to injuries. Matt LaFleur is a Kyle Shanahan disciple, and his offense often makes use of more traditional blocking fullbacks. Vitale is a glorified 3rd down back, and he is expendable. 

Tight Ends

Grade: F

The tight end position was an unmitigated disaster. The LaFleur offense functions best with well-rounded tight ends, who can block and receive at an adequate level. The Packers’ tight ends were well-rounded only in the sense that they excelled at nothing in particular. 

Jimmy Graham has always been a big wide receiver more than a tight end. He’s lost several steps at this point, and when called on to block, he seems both incapable and disinterested. He will not be returning next year. 

Bob Tonyan should have developed into a seam-stretching downfield threat by now. He struggles as a blocker, and while he has the raw tools to be a dangerous receiver, it hasn’t come together for him.

Marcedes Lewis is as good a blocker as ever, but he never had a step to lose, and he’s lost it. Lewis can still be useful, and his elite blocking allowed him to leak out into the secondary wide open on more than one occasion, but he can’t do any real damage with the ball in his hand. He’s still a useful player—and the best of a sad bunch.

Finally, Jace Sternberger flashed potential late in the season, but he spent most of the year on IR and while he may develop into a true weapon, he isn’t one yet. With Sternberger, there is at least hope, but Green Bay should attempt to upgrade the position as soon as possible.