Packers Grind Out Win Over Bears

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Photo by Evan Siegle/packers.com

Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago Bears 10/17/21

One of the weirdest statistics in the Packers’ win over the Bears on Sunday is the Packers only had three true second half possessions. They managed two touchdowns, a punt, and finished out the final few minutes with kneel downs. This was only slightly slower than their first half in which they only had four real possessions. 

The Packers are methodical almost to a fault. Consider that on a per play basis, as measured by the advanced statistic EPA/play, they rank as the 7th best offense in football, but in terms of points scored, they rank only 14th, just one single point better than the Carolina Panthers. Few teams take longer than the 32.4 seconds the Packers use between every play, and few teams run the ball more frequently, as Green Bay ranks 12th in run percentage. This isn’t all bad as the Packers are smart about running, usually doing so to protect leads, and Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur use every bit of the play clock for adjustments and pre-snap motion. Still, there is a downside, and that downside is the fact that the Packers only won by 10 points despite absolutely dominating every major statistical category. Aaron Rodgers averaged an insane .33 EPA/play while his Bears counterpart, rookie Justin Fields, averaged -.03. The Packers outgained the Bears by 46 yards, had four fewer penalties, and won the turnover battle. Given those splits, and the fact that Aaron Jones and running backs Khalil Herbert and Aaron Jones were essentially equals, the Packers should have won this by several touchdowns.

Instead, the Bears managed to keep the game close until Aaron Rodgers finally sealed it with his late rushing touchdown, and colorful celebration in which he yelled “I still own you” at some of the Chicago faithful. It probably should have been even closer, as the lone turnover, an end zone interception by safety Darnell Savage, never should have happened, as the Packer front jumped offsides on the play. What should have been five yards and another shot at converting 3rd and short, instead turned into a long Packer drive capped off by a one-yard touchdown pass to Allen Lazard. 

This has been a bit of a theme for Green Bay this season. Outside of the first game against the Saints, Green Bay has easily outplayed every opponent, but outside of their 35-17 win over the Lions, they’ve had trouble putting teams away. And while that slow pace has served to disguise some of the offense’s brilliance, it’s also hidden some of the problems with the defense, which ranks 19th in EPA for play, and 20th in DVOA. Despite their somewhat low efficiency rankings, they’re 13th in points allowed with 22.66 per game, and they are just a single touchdown allowed from moving all the way to 8th place. 

After Washington next Sunday, the Packers face the Cardinals and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. Both teams have efficient, high-paced offenses, and both are likely to push Green Bay out of their comfort zone. The slow, methodical nature of the Packer offense serves a purpose, and it will be interesting to see how Aaron Rodgers manages a more traditional high-powered shootout. 

Washington’s Crash

Washington seemed to have an intelligent plan entering 2021. They finished 2020 with the 3rd ranked defense in football, anchored by defensive rookie of the year Chase Young. Along with Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat, the Football Team possesses one of the most formidable defensive lines in the game. They added corner William Jackson III in the offseason to firm up one of their only big weaknesses. 

On offense, wide receiver Terry McLaurin has become one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL, and Antonio Gibson, one of its most dynamic running backs. All they seemingly needed was a quarterback to replace Dwayne Haskins, which they got in veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. On paper, their plan was great. Unfortunately, reality had other ideas.

Fitzpatrick would have been an upgrade, but he’s also 38 years old, and was injured almost immediately. He’s expected to miss about half the season, and backup Taylor Heinicke will be running things until then. But the bigger surprise is the defense, which currently ranks 29th. 

Defense is notoriously inconsistent from year to year, and stable teams tend to build around offense for this reason. The big problem for Washington isn’t a huge change in lack of production. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are still very good. Jackson has firmed up their defense against number one receivers where they currently rank 11th. The problem is strength of schedule. 

Last season, Washington won the NFC East with a 7-9 record. That division was one of the worst of all time, as Dak Prescott was injured for the Cowboys, the Eagles collapsed under injuries and Carson Wentz, and the Giants were their poorly run normal selves. This season, the Cowboys and Eagles are much improved, and the Football Team has already faced the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. Playing poor offenses will make any defense look good but going up against the Bills and Chiefs will quickly expose all of your weaknesses, which is exactly what has happened here. 

Washington isn’t as poor as they have looked, and I expect their defense is closer to above average than terrible, but their schedule is much harder. That includes the Packers, who have, since week one, been outstanding on offense. Washington’s defense is talented, but they have yet to step up against elite opponents. They have another tough task ahead of them on Sunday.