Packers Open 2021 with a Look into Their Future

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Photo by Evan Siegle from Packers.com

After a tumultuous offseason featuring a holdout by their star quarterback, the Packers kick off the 2021 season knowing that this will likely be their last and best opportunity to win a championship for the foreseeable future. They’ll face the Saints in Jacksonville Florida, due to the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Ida in New Orleans, and in many ways, the Saints are a vision of what may be coming next season for Green Bay.

The Saints are in their first season of the post-Brees era after a 2020 in which they finished first overall in the advanced statistic DVOA but lost to the Buccaneers in the divisional round of the playoffs. Last season, the Saints featured a star-studded defense that actually ranked ahead of the Bucs, and a dynamic offense built around Brees, and a bevy of excellent receivers.

With Brees gone and the salary cap finally catching up with them, New Orleans will be rolling out a completely different look. Gone from last year are Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders, along with Brees on offense. On defense, the Saints were unable to retain starters Malcolm Brown and Janoris Jenkins, as well as breakout star Trey Hendrickson and his 13.5 sacks. Several key role players are also with new teams, and there are not exactly ready-made replacements available. 

Insult to Injury

In addition to all of their salary cap losses, the Saints will also be without star receiver Michael Thomas, who will miss the first six weeks of the season on the PUP list, recovering from ankle surgery. Adding insult to that significant injury, the Saints are unhappy with Thomas for waiting so long in the offseason to have ankle surgery, and Thomas is now unhappy with the team for leaking that information. It’s an ugly situation all around, and without Thomas things will be very difficult for new starting quarterback Jameis Winston.

Winston isn’t a bad quarterback and is underrated by many due to his catastrophic 2019 campaign where he threw 30 interceptions, but that season was a significant outlier, and over his career, he’s been about a league average quarterback. That said, he finds himself in an impossible situation with few weapons at his disposal. 

Offense

While the Saints are likely to struggle in this game, and all season, the Packers are all in, after having resolved their dispute with Aaron Rodgers, they traded a 6th round pick to Houston to bring Randall Cobb home and placate their disgruntled star. Cobb can still be a productive player when healthy, and with Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Robert Tonyan, the Packers should have one of the better receiving corps in the league.

The biggest question mark on offense may be on the line, where left tackle David Bakhtiari will start on the PUP list, missing the first 6 weeks of the season. Elgton Jenkins will be stepping in at left tackle, and two rookies, Josh Myers and Royce Newman, will be key to ensuring the interior of the line remains stout. Chemistry and continuity are the two biggest keys for adequate line play, and any major shuffle on the line can cause issues.

In addition to one of the league’s best passing attacks, the Packers should also continue to dominate on the ground with Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and 7th round rookie Kylin Hill. Hill fell in the draft after opting out of the 2020 season, but his talent was never in question. Hill showed off his advanced receiving skills in the preseason, and he may be the most complete back on the roster. 

As long as Rodgers is healthy, the Packers should have no worse than a top five offense. The big question for this team is whether the defense can hold up their end of the bargain.

Defense

On defense, the Packers are still as unsettled as ever. Mike Pettine is gone, replaced by retread Joe Barry, who served unsuccessfully as defensive coordinator in Detroit and Washington previously. Barry left the Rams, where he was assistant head coach and linebackers coach to come to Green Bay, and the hope is that he has refined his style and strategy since his earlier days. Even if Barry is an improvement, personnel may still be an issue, as the Packers failed to address key weaknesses in the offseason.

While Jaire Alexander is among the best corners in the league, he will still be starting opposite Kevin King, who the team inexplicably brought back after his high-profile failures in the NFC Championship Game a year ago. While the team spent a high draft pick on Georgia’s Eric Stokes, he was unable to beat out King to start the season and seemed to struggle in camp. While Alexander, and safeties Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos are a solid trio, depth is lacking in the secondary, and an injury to any of them will cascade through the defense. 

More troubling though, is the pass rush, where Za’Darius Smith, already coming off a down year, has been experiencing back problems. The Packers also brought back Preston Smith in hopes he can recapture his 2019 form, though he has worked for Joe Barry before in Washington, and it did not go well. The drop off from 2019 to 2020 was significant, as the Smiths saw their combined hurry total drop from 101 combined hurries in 2019 to just 41 last season. Barry will need to find a way to drastically improve on these numbers, and to get Rashan Gary more involved, if the defense is going to take a step forward. 

If the Packers can get bounce back performances from the Smiths, better game planning from Barry, and stay healthy, they will be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. This defense only needs to be average in support of Aaron Rodgers, and that should be achievable. Against New Orleans this weekend, it should be more than enough.