Packers Pitch a Shutout, Dominate Seattle

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Aaron Rodgers Next Gen stats 11.16.21

It’s extremely rare for the Green Bay Packers to pitch a shutout. It’s so rare that it’s happened only 13 times since the merger, and it happened only a single time, against the Buccaneers and Steve Young, in the entire decade of the ‘80s. And when the Packers do shut the other team out, it’s usually against a pretty poor quarterback. Steve Young would go on to a Hall of Fame career, but this shutout occurred in his rookie season for a truly atrocious Bucs team.

The Packers also managed to shutout a Josh Allen-led Bills team in 2018, though that was also Allen’s rookie year, but it’s usually someone more along the lines of Mark Sanchez and the Jets in 2010, or former Badger Brooks Bollinger and the Vikings in 2007. Russell Wilson is almost certainly the best quarterback that the Packers have shut out since the merger.

Green Bay’s defense has now put together outstanding games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Wilson, and should find itself ranked as a top-5 unit most metrics this week, a truly impressive feat considering that Jaire Alexander is still out with a shoulder injury.  I was skeptical of the Joe Barry hire as he failed as a defensive coordinator twice before, but he has been phenomenal in getting the most out of every Packer defender. On Sunday, Kenny Clark was in Wilson’s face constantly, but so was rookie TJ Slaton, which is great to see out of a 5^th rounder. Rookie cornerback Eric Stokes returned from injury to completely shut down Seattle’s Tyler Lockett, who had just two receptions on eight targets. When targeting Stokes this season, quarterbacks have a 78.2 passer rating, the best among all rookie corners.

The biggest story in the secondary is he development of Darnell Savage. Combined with the continued steady play of Adrian Amos, who had a nifty interception in this game, they comprise one of the best safety duos in the league. Reliable safety play is underrated leaguewide as it doesn’t always show up in hard statistics, but it is essential as it allows your corners to have confidence that any mistakes they make will not become complete disasters. Corners need to take calculated risks constantly, and corners tend to struggle when they start to think about those risks. Corners need to react without thinking, and as soon as they start to second-guess their reactions, it’s over. If you’re wondering why Eric Stokes, Rasul Douglas, and Kevin King have played so well in the absence of Alexander, Savage and Amos have a lot to do with it.

Offensively, both quarterbacks struggled in this game, and it’s likely that both were still hindered by health issues. Russell Wilson returned too quickly from a finger injury, which impacted his accuracy, and Aaron Rodgers was likely still experiencing some aftereffects of Covid, as he looked out of sorts. Fortunately, Rodgers, and AJ Dillon were able to do just enough to bury Seattle. Dillon in particular dominated the game, especially after the loss of Aaron Jones to a sprained MCL. Dillon had 66 yards on 21 carries, but those numbers understate just how dominant he was in short yardage, and in driving the ball across the goal line twice.

The Dangerous Packer?

More importantly, Dillon has quickly become one of the most dangerous Packers in the passing game. Dillon has caught 90% of his targets for a booming 12.25 yards per reception this year, which is first among running backs with at least 15 receptions. Dillon seems to pick up an easy ten yards on even the most basic receptions, but his explosiveness was also on full display in this game on a brilliant 50-yard catch-and-run in the 4th quarter where he expertly tiptoed the sideline and used his blocking. Fortunately, Jones isn’t expected to miss much time, but they shouldn’t suffer any loss of production with Dillon leading the way.

Thank goodness for Dillon because the passing game is struggling for two reasons. The first is Aaron Rodgers’ deep ball which has deserted him this year whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling has played or not. Rodgers has suffered with accuracy all year, and even in this game, his 41-yard bomb to MVS on the 3^rd play of the game would have gone for a touchdown with a vintage Rodgers throw. Deep passing is subject to a great deal of randomness, and Rodgers and MVS haven’t had that much consistent time together, so this may improve as time goes on. Still, it is worth monitoring, as deep accuracy can be a sign of decline in older quarterbacks.

Their other big problem is Allen Lazard. Lazard is the best blocking wide receiver in football, and he is valuable in the run game, but he’s having his least efficient season as a receiver. This is almost entirely due to drops and contested catches, and Lazard’s 65.4% catch rate is the lowest of his career. Given that Lazard’s 12.4 yards per reception is also a career low by more than a full yard, there is no excuse for Lazard’s struggles hanging on to the ball. Given that he will be on the field to block, it’s imperative that he improve as a receiving threat.