On my first viewing of the Packers-Bengals game I was extremely unimpressed with the Packer effort. It was a thrilling comeback, but I don’t think much of Cincinnati and while the Packers were obviously banged up, I saw many of the team’s earlier issues declining further. Upon rewatching the following day I realized just how wrong I was. To the extent the Packers struggled it was almost always in the service of covering up injury issues at offensive tackle, and while it was infuriating to see the team get dinked and dunked by Andy Dalton, after some initial struggles the defense tightened up and allowed just three second half points. McCarthy and Capers did what they could with what they had, and Aaron Rodgers delivered a stellar second half, and a marvelous free play bomb to win it in overtime.
What Secretly Went Right
Martellus Bennett was brutal in the loss to Atlanta with at least four drops, and his three catch, 12-yard performance (with another drop) hardly inspires confidence, but with Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari still ailing he was called on to block for the vast majority of the game. Bennett is still an outstanding blocker and that help was instrumental in providing Aaron Rodgers time to throw. In his younger days, Bennett may have still been able to chip his guy and quickly get out into a pattern, but slightly older and a step slow, he’s best served staying at home when blocking. With Randall Cobb and Bennett otherwise occupied the team was a bit thin over the middle, but the Packers did not sign just one tight end this year. They also brought in former Badger Lance Kendricks, and while Bennett was stuck doing dirty work in the trenches, Kendricks had his finest game as a Packer.
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On his one yard touchdown Rodgers executed a beautiful play fake, and Kendricks, at the bottom of the screen, completely sold his block.
More importantly, he disengaged cleanly, and found himself as open in the end zone as a person can be.
It was an outstanding display of veteran savvy. Kendricks also showed an ability to get downfield on his 51-yard catch and run to kick off the second half. On this play, Aaron Rodgers completely bewitched the Bengal Edge rushers, moving back and forth in the pocket and keeping his inexperienced tackles in just the right position. Kendricks was open early, and did a nice job of working back to the ball and shedding his defender for a huge gain. The Packers really benefit from tight end production, and Kendricks showed why he was a worthwhile addition.
Ty Montgomery Struggles
Montgomery has had a sensational season so far, but he may be starting to show some signs of wear. He has out-snapped every other running back in the league, and on Sunday he took some massive hits as the Bengals were well prepared for interior runs and safety valve dump-offs. Montgomery usually explodes through defenders at the end of his runs, but on more than one occasion he turned his back to contact rather than seeking it.
This is troubling, and the Packers would be wise to give him more rest over the course of a game, but with the offensive line in shambles, I also understand the desire to keep him out there. A reliable safety valve is a valuable thing, and while his pass protection still isn’t great, it is very good. No one is going to question his toughness, and he reportedly dislocated (and relocated) a finger mid-game, which may have caused additional worry about fumbling, but even the toughest back can only take so much. As soon as either Bulaga or Bakhtiari returns, they need to start working Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones into the rotation more.
Searching for Charles Woodson
On defense Kevin King has been the big story so far this season, but on Sunday the other rookie defensive back showed up in a big way. 2nd round safety Josh Jones made a statement as the Nitro linebacker, recording two sacks, and routinely blowing up ball carriers. Where King is a tall, lanky speedster, Jones is an imposing monster of a man, with similar measurables to King in a more compact 220 pounds.
Much has been made of the fact that the Packers don’t have an interception yet, but their defense has been stout, and almost every individual part, from the King-House-Clinton-Dix-Burnett secondary, to Matthews and the now injured Nick Perry on the outside, to Blake Martinez in run defense, have made great plays. When they get completely healthy and Mike Daniels returns, this unit is going to shut people down.
The Packers came out of this game having also lost backup tackle Kyle Murphy and long snapper Brett Goode for the year, and on a short week against Chicago. The Bears are coming off a win against Pittsburgh, and on a short week against a banged up Green Bay, the Bears are dangerous. Boring and weird, but dangerous.
Chicago is Annoying
Every season I do an analytics-based preview of the other NFC North teams, and so far my Bear preview is pretty dead on.
They may not scare you, but beating the Steelers is nothing to sneeze at (even in Soldier Field), and if running back Jordan Howard had better hands, they would also own a win over Atlanta. The Bears are a simple team with a simple formula. John Fox and Vic Fangio run the show, and defense is their focus. The Bear defense has been quite good, and has frustrated some excellent quarterbacks in the early going, which is especially troublesome considering the Packers may be starting street free agents at tackle. Linebackers Pernell McPhee and Willie Young have provided a consistent pass rush, and defensive end Akiem Hicks has been solid in all phases of the game. The Bears can stop you, but things get much less interesting on offense.
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BORING
Before we get started, let’s all have a hearty laugh at Marcus Cooper.
With that out of the way, one of my favorite teams of all time is the 1992 Seattle Seahawks. They went 2-14, scored 140 total points, and never scored over 17 points in any game. Their leading receiver was fullback John Williams, who was targeted 122 times, hauling in 74 catches for 556 yards. No other Seattle player caught more than 27 passes. If you’ve ever been curious as to what a John Kuhn-based offense would look like, look no further. Anyway, I mention this because the Bears pulled off a nifty feat in their last win. Mike Glennon completed only one pass to a wide receiver all game, a nine-yard gain to Deonte Thompson. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a thing in a modern football game, especially in a victory. This team is built to run, plain and simple.
Beating the Bears is matter of not making dumb mistakes, and not falling behind. Against Pittsburgh the Bears lead for the vast majority of the game, and they leaned heavily on Jordan Howard and rookie sensation Tarik Cohen, both rushing and receiving, to maintain possession and grind clock. Two weeks ago it was an entirely different story, as the Buccaneers blew the doors off early, running up a multi-score lead, and forcing Glennon to have to throw to catch up. The Bucs won in a laugher as the Bear receivers and quarterback give them almost no ability to come back. But if you get behind or give them a turnover or two, you have to deal with Jordan Howard’s power game:
And more alarmingly, rookie Tarik Cohen’s speed, vision, and agility:
Cohen got a very nice block from former Steeler wide receiver Markus Wheaton on that play, and the Bear skill position players have all shown a willingness to get their hands dirty down the field. They are possibly the least dynamic group of pass catchers in the NFL, but they will get after you on a running play.
Cohen owns the three longest bear plays from scrimmage this year, and he is easily their most dynamic player. He is almost a unique NFL player, extremely small for the position at just 5-6, 179 pounds, but so far, in his early career, he looks every bit like the second coming of Darren Sproles.
Cohen was their 4th round pick, and he has paid huge dividends early, but they have also received nice production from 2nd round pick Adam Shaheen, a monstrous tight end prospect out of tiny Ashland University. Like most Bears, he hasn’t been much of a threat as a receiver, but he has the athletic ability and size to turn into something special eventually. What this Bear team needs right now is a fierce blocker, and that is exactly what he has been. The Bears won their last game on a 19-yard Jordan Howard touchdown run, and on the play it was Shaheen who opened up the hole:
And maintained his block.
Short Weeks Mean Simple Plans
Thursday games don’t leave either team much time for implementing a complicated, opponent-specific strategy. One of the big reasons Thursday games tend to be bad is that everyone runs a fairly vanilla playbook, and that favors defenses. The Bears don’t really do anything that complicated, and will probably benefit from the short week by virtue of health and simplicity. I like the Packers to win as they are simply a better team, and it looks like Mike Daniels will be back, but I’d like them much more if this game were on Sunday, and an upset isn’t out of the question. The good news for Green Bay is that they appear to have some of their best run-stopping personnel in years. I expect Josh Jones to be a big part of that.
