Brian Gutekunst made a splash this weekend when he moved troubled cornerback Damarious Randall to Cleveland for quarterback DeShone Kizer. The teams also swapped 4th and 5th round picks, with the Packers moving up in both rounds.
Randall has had severe ups and downs in his three seasons. He had an impressive rookie campaign as a big contributor to the last good Packer defense, but due to injuries and mental struggles, he regressed terribly in 2016. Almost every Packer defensive player, especially in the secondary, suffered injuries that season, and the inability to put NFL-caliber players on the field led to a total collapse. For me, that was a “burn the tape” season, and I was willing to cut a lot of slack to any player who rebounded in 2017. Randall did in fact rebound, but the circumstances surrounding that rebound ultimately led to this trade.
In week four against the Bears, Randall got into a high-profile argument with an assistant coach. Randall was bad in weeks one through three, but the subsequent benching for insubordination did wonders for his play the rest of the season. From that point forward he was undoubtedly their best player in the secondary, and a difference-maker on a defense sorely lacking them. Unfortunately, that stint of elevated play was not enough to make amends among the coaching staff and veterans of the team, and they declared him a cancer, and moved on.
This puts the Packers in a bind on defense. Before the trade, cornerback, while hardly perfect, at least had the makings of a decent position with Randall and rookie Kevin King anchoring the starting spots. Now outside of the defensive line, they need a total overhaul. The Packer edge rushers were among the worst at generating consistent pressure in 2017, and without a pass rush, nothing else works. With Morgan Burnett a free agent, the safety position is also in rough shape. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was among the weakest free safeties in football last season, and Josh Jones is unproven as Burnett’s heir apparent.
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All of this was manageable with Randall still around, but it’s unlikely the Packers have enough capital, draft or salary cap-wise, to fill every hole. Randall may have been a locker room cancer, and if the team was unwilling to pick up his 2019 option getting some value for him isn’t the worst idea, but the return on the trade was odd. Deshone Kizer may turn into something; it’s just tough to see that development actually impacting the Packers at any point.
Kizer and Hundley
I have watched quite a bit of tape on DeShone Kizer, and I am personally not a fan. He is definitely talented, he has a good arm, throws a nice deep ball, and moves well in the pocket, but the negative aspects to his game are of the type that tends to stick long term.
Statistically, the most predictive indicators that a quarterback will excel in the NFL are completion percentage and games started, and on both Kizer falls short. He played only two years at Notre Dame, and while his overall 60.7% completion percentage isn’t terrible, it’s troubling that he declined from 62.9% his sophomore years to 58.7% his junior year. Those indicators are certainly not gospel, and there are good reasons to overlook them in some instances, but Kizer’s flaws are troubling. He’s always been prone to committing turnovers with 19 interceptions over two years in college, and a league-leading 22 in his rookie season against just 11 touchdowns. Brett Hundley, bad as he was, threw 9 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in fewer games.
When you watch Kizer, the reasons for his poor production are immediately clear. His footwork is a mess, and the perception of pressure often causes him to sail passes, which leads to easy interceptions. While he is capable of stringing good throws together, he is also prone to the Cutler-esque, mind-numbingly terrible throw regularly.
Interceptions and inaccuracy are two of the toughest things to correct for quarterbacks, and while it would be easy to blame Kizer’s supporting cast playing for an awful franchise, it’s worth noting that a cavalcade of bad quarterbacks played better than Kizer for the 2016 Browns, who went just 1-15.
We also should not ignore the effects that a truly awful franchise can have on a quarterback. Kizer did not take an insane number of sacks, but a 0-16 team is simply not a healthy environment. Even if Kizer was better than the Browns, he still lost a year to them.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is that even the most optimistic take on Kizer still casts him as a developmental project, and that’s not really what the Packers need right now. Aaron Rodgers still has plenty of good years left, and while replacing Brett Hundley isn’t a bad idea in a vacuum, Kizer actually played worse than Hundley last season. For their current needs they would best be served by a veteran backup, and in a best case scenario, Kizer will never play a down for the Packers.
Maybe he will overcome the odds and become a good player in a few years, but for 2018 the Packer defense is now markedly worse than the 2017 version. The Packers are weak across the board, and I am not quite sure they understand just how vulnerable their offense has become outside of Davante Adams. They need a large infusion of talent, and if they don’t become major players in free agency, it’s hard to see where that talent will come from. The draft can only provide so much, and as it stands right now, this is the least talented Packer team in years.
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