Photo credit: Evan Siegle
Minnesota Vikings running Back Dalvin Cook carries the ball during the Vikings' 28-22 victory over the Packers on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020.
In ideal conditions the Packers probably would have won this game. Unfortunately, the Packers played Sunday’s contest against the Minnesota Vikings in gale force winds. With both passing games limited, the Vikings were able to ride Dalvin Cook on the ground and score the upset.
The Packer run defense continues to be a problem against any team willing to exploit it and against one of the best backs in the league, Mike Pettine had no answers. At this point it’s fair to wonder if he ever will, as his game plan didn’t change enough when it became clear Minnesota would be content to run all day. Cook is the best back in the league by conventional statistics, as well as Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and there’s no shame in allowing him yards. That said, there is plenty of shame in allowing him 5.4 yards per carry over 30 carries, mostly into heavy boxes. Minnesota’s running attack was so good that it outperformed their passing game on a per play basis according to Expected Points Added (EPA). That is unheard of in today’s NFL, and inexcusable over so many carries.
Pettine did adjust slightly as the Packers ran out of base personnel more often than in any game this season, but he still made several curious decisions. One of the biggest was only playing Montravius Adams for six snaps. Adams has not had much success this season, but he is among the team’s best run defenders. If he is going to remain on the roster at all, this is exactly the type of game to use him in. Pettine also continues to make bizarre use of Preston Smith, who found himself in coverage far too often, and in one instance, out on an island as a cornerback. Smith has had a down season, and one of the reasons for his struggles is the consistently bizarre assignments he gets from Pettine. Against Houston last week he had a bounce back game while serving as a spy on quarterback Deshaun Watson, but he’s not a versatile player, and taking him out of his comfort zone hurts him.
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Matt LaFleur had taken issue with the defense’s aggressiveness and predictability in his post-game press conferences lately. Given that Pettine was a holdover from the McCarthy regime, don’t be surprised if his tenure is almost at an end. Former Rams’ defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is currently a free agent and he’s worked with LaFleur before. If Pettine can’t slow down an extremely undermanned San Francisco team on Thursday, don’t be surprised if Phillips gets a call.
Covid-19 and the 49ers
Packer running back AJ Dillon became the first Packer to test positive for COVID-19 during the current season, and the team is now in the NFL’s protocol. Inside linebacker Kamal Martin and running back Jamaal Williams had close contact with Dillon and are in isolation as well, awaiting evaluation. With a short week ahead of them, it’s possible the Packers will only have Dexter Williams available at running back if they don’t make a move.
As banged up as they are, the Packers are the picture of health compared to San Francisco, which has lost almost every star player from a year ago including tight end George Kittle and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in their most recent game. As a result, the 49ers will be led into battle by backup quarterback Nick Mullens and a cast of fourth stringers. The test for the Packers will be a still formidable offensive line and running back JaMycal Hasty. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is not afraid to take advantage of the Packers’ run defense, it’s just a matter of whether Hasty is up to the challenge of a full workload.
On offense, Green Bay should theoretically have no problem with a banged-up 49ers defense, but they will need to go against their tendencies a bit and attack deep, frequently. While they are banged up, the 49ers still excel at tackling and taking away yards after the catch. Their weakness is in defending the deep ball where they are one of the worst teams in football. If Aaron Rodgers isn’t afraid to air it out, they should score enough to win the game. Even if beleaguered deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to struggle, Davante Adams and Bob Tonyan should pose enough of a threat.
To read more Packers coverage by Paul Noonan, click here.
