The Many Red Flags of Matt LaFleur

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A quick look at Football Outsiders’ list of the most efficient offensive teams, which, in order, includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots, will tell you why the Green Bay Packers went after a young, offensively minded alleged-wunderkind like Matt LaFleur.

Every one of those teams not only made the playoffs, but are still alive in the playoffs. Their counterparts on defense, the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, have all been sent packing. At the moment, offense wins, and the Packers are built for offense. It makes perfect sense that they would focus on offensive-minded coaches, and eventually hire one.

Everyone is looking for the next Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan, and LaFleur has experience working for both, but there is a great deal of risk in chasing that archetype, and in hiring someone so inexperienced. LaFleur may show some promise, but there are a number of red flags around him as well.

1. LaFleur hasn’t really been in charge of anything substantial.

LaFleur worked as offensive coordinator for Sean McVay before joining the Tennessee Titans, but he didn’t call plays, nor did he call plays while serving under Kyle Shanahan as a member of the Atlanta Falcons. Last season was his first shot at actually running an offense, and it’s hard to categorize that effort as anything but a failure. The Titans were greatly hampered by injuries to quarterback Marcus Mariota, and to other skill position players, but they finished 25th in passing DVOA, and it’s hard to argue that LaFleur made the most out of the few weapons he did have. If you are hiring an offensive coordinator, I think it’s fine to take a chance on a younger coach with some projectability. For a head coach, I would like to see some on-field accomplishment of some kind.

2. Sean McVay let him go.

In the NFL, an organization can block a lateral move, and teams frequently exercise that right. When the Titans hired LaFleur away from the Rams, the Rams could have blocked him from interviewing. Instead they wished him well and sent him on his way. Perhaps more troubling, the Rams offense actually improved without LaFleur, moving from 6th to 2nd in DVOA, while Tennessee declined from 18th to 22nd. I remember when the Patriots bid farewell to Charlie Weiss and their offense drastically improved. I’ve been wary of Patriot coaches since then, and Sean McVay is at least as wise as Bill Belichick in understanding who on his staff is important, and who is replaceable.

3. LaFleur was not hired as head coach of the Titans.

Originally LaFleur interviewed to be head coach in Tennessee, a job that eventually went to former Patriot linebacker Mike Vrabel. The Titans offered him the consolation prize and he took it. That strikes me as an odd and questionable decision, as success was always more certain under McVay, and LaFleur would likely be unable to move up in the Titans’ organization.

4. No one else wanted LaFleur.

Despite the fact that a quarter of the league needed a new head coach, only the Packers interviewed LaFleur. When the other teams do free scouting for you, it’s often wise to listen.

5. The Packer process was weird, and possibly dysfunctional.

The Packers did not conduct a second interview for any candidate including LaFleur, which strikes me as managerial malpractice. For a position as important as head football coach, it’s wise to vet your candidates carefully, and a single interview is hardly enough time to do so, especially considering LaFleur’s lack of NFL accomplishments. Mark Murphy also took time to thank Packer communications director Jason Wahlers as instrumental to the hiring effort, which seems odd.

6. LaFleur is keeping Mike Pettine.

I’m not a huge fan of Pettine, but even if you are, you should still be wary. I would like a new head coach to have his own people, and his own vision. It would be fine if the Packers employed some legendary, or at least highly successful defensive coordinator, but Pettine is neither, and allowing holdovers from the old regime when you are supposed to be implementing a progressive new regime is inconsistent at best.

7. LaFleur’s offense may feed into Aaron Rodgers’ bad habits.

In Tennessee, LaFleur leaned heavily on a vertical passing game with easy dump-off options, often to running backs. Part of the issue with Rodgers this year was too much of exactly that. Rodgers was very boom or bust in either attacking deep or running around searching for what would eventually become a short comeback, or a hopeless dump off. While Sean McVay’s offense is more horizontal, and makes good use of the intermediate routes and the middle portion of the field, LaFleur’s tendencies may exacerbate some already bad habits. Rodgers may like it, but it may not be good for him.

8. Rodgers may walk all over LaFleur.

LaFleur may be a dynamo on the field, but in his press conferences, including his most recent, he comes off as a bit awkward and slightly passive. Rodgers is supremely confident, and understands his own brilliance, a dangerous combination that makes earning respect a very real challenge. This hire is all about Rodgers, and if Rodgers isn’t happy with LaFleur’s gameplans, personality or anything else, Rodgers will win that battle.

9. Buy low, sell high.

With everyone looking for the next Sean McVay, the price of Sean McVays has skyrocketed, while the supply is shallow. Everyone wants offense because, at the moment, it works. But there are not an infinite number of McVays just sitting around. The bargains right now are on defense, and a defensive-minded head coach would have been perfect for the Packers, who could have gambled on someone like LaFleur at OC, while shoring up the weakest part of the team with a new head coach and relying on Rodgers to not let the offense get too bad. Bears’ defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is going to Denver, which strikes me as a horrible fit for all involved. Denvers’ defense is already quite solid already, and Fangio will contribute nothing to the offense. It is a win for the Packers to have him out of the division, but he would have been a nice zag to the league’s general zig and a perfect fit for their specific situation.

I hope Matt LaFleur is a dynamic, creative offensive mind who turns the team around, and given his lack of track record, and the fact that I wasn’t in the interview room, it’s entirely possible he will do so, but what we do know of LaFleur isn’t exactly encouraging. This hiring will serve as a referendum on Mark Murphy and Brian Gutekunst’s managerial processes, and determine the fate of the franchise for years. Given the stakes, the process seemed a little light.