I am almost always in favor of having an offensive-minded head coach, but given recent trends in the NFL, I’m not sure that’s necessarily the best idea. Offenses are so good, and the rules favor them so much, that being able to play good defense is now more important than ever. As the Green Bay Packers search for a new head coach, I think going after Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio makes a lot of sense.
Offenses can get stale quickly. We saw this with Mike McCarthy, who was innovative until the moment he wasn’t. While the offenses of the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs get a lot of the headlines, there’s something to be said for the defensive approach, especially if you have a legendary quarterback setting your offensive floor. I think Aaron Rodgers does need to be reined in a bit and won’t be sad if an offensive coach ends up taking over, but Fangio, specifically, offers a lot of upside.
The Packers, Quarterbacks and Defense
It’s hard to imagine the Packers having a defensive-minded head coach given their recent history. Offense has been the focus since Brett Favre took over, and changing things up would, I suspect, rub some people the wrong way. But given the immediate needs of the team and the tenor of the NFC North and the league in general, it makes a ton of sense.
Fangio’s coaching has proven effective over a long period of time with multiple teams, and most recently with the Bears and San Francisco 49ers. His style is likely to continue to be effective, and likely to age gracefully. The Bears experienced a turnaround almost instantly when they brought on Fangio. After putting a league-worst defense on the field the year before, they put together some talent to go with his coaching, and now no defense is better than the Bears. The team ranks first in defensive DVOA overall, first against the run and first against the pass.
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Fangio has stated his interest in becoming a head coach, and the Packers were interested in bringing him on as defensive coordinator after they fired Dom Capers. The Bears, smartly, retained him, but they would not be able to block a promotion to head coach.
Fangio is also a good fit because while Rodgers is still very talented, he is getting to the age where he will have trouble dominating like he used to. He can still lead an above-average offense, and if they provide him with some explosive receivers, maybe even a bit better. But the salary cap, and his salary, will make that difficult. The best place for the Packers to get bang for their buck going forward is on defense. If they can put together a dominant unit on defense, a less-than-spectacular Rodgers will be good enough to win championships, just as Peyton Manning did with the Denver Broncos late in his career.
I do think the Packers need a shot in the arm on offense as well, but they may be better served doing so by changing the offensive coordinator position instead of the head coach. Many of the best offensive minds coming up through the college ranks are younger and would be better served spending some time as coordinators, both for seasoning and vetting. If the Packers go for offense at head coach, they are more likely to go for a safe retread, and less likely to pick up a progressive upstart. If a new system fails, it is also much easier to move on from a coordinator.
Breaking the Bears
The single best reason to steal Fangio may be that it hurts the Bears. Chicago is set up well for sustained success, but not if their defense falters. While the Bears feature an outstanding defense and a well-coached offense led by Matt Nagy, there is some evidence that Mitchell Trubisky may not be the franchise quarterback they’re looking for. He ranks 21st according to DVOA, and on tape he is generally inaccurate and slow to make decisions. His mobility adds some value and has kept the offense above water, but the Bears also seem to understand his limitations, and have installed a conservative passing offense relying mostly on checkdowns and easy throws.
Robbing Chicago of Fangio would undermine a burgeoning rival, stripping them of one of their core strengths, and forcing them to put more responsibility on their young signal-caller. In the NFC North, the Bears are the most likely team to own the division for the foreseeable future, and hurting them provides an immediate long-term benefit. The Packers have some good defensive players in place already, and if they could plug a few small holes at linebacker and safety, their defensive turnaround could be immediate.
Mike Pettine has done a fine job in his first year as Packer defensive coordinator, and if they retain him I think that would be fine, but I also don’t think the organization should allow Pettine’s presence to dictate their search, and I believe it was a mistake to make so many hires without completely cleaning house first. Fangio is the surest bet to provide instant improvement for a team with a small window, and hurting their biggest rival is the icing on the cake.
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