The Packers Face the End of an Era

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Photo Credit: Evan Siegle

Packers vs. Commanders

The Packers now find themselves in their worst position of the LaFleur era. Given the impending end of the Aaron Rodgers era, this is likely the most dangerous position this team has been in since before the Ron Wolf era. Green Bay is now below .500 at 3-4, and while they’re still alive for the playoffs given the expanded format, it’s much more likely, given the quality of the teams remaining on their schedule, that they’re not going to make it.

Green Bay sits tied with the Bears in the NFC North, and even though the Packers defeated Chicago in their first head-to-head meeting, it’s hard to argue that the Packers are currently the better team. Even though Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been brutal as a passer, he’s managed to make a few big throws over the last several weeks, while turning into a real weapon with his legs. The Bears have only scored two fewer points than Green Bay, while their defense has allowed two fewer touchdowns than the Packers, which is an incredible testament to Bears head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and a huge indictment of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. The Bears drafted well, have gotten immediate impact from their defensive rookies, rely on a stout running game, and attack downfield with field stretching receivers Dante Pettis (23 yards per reception) and Darnell Mooney (15 yards per reception).

The Bears are, in many ways, what the Packers intended to be. They thought their defense would improve in their second year under Joe Barry. Instead, almost everyone outside of Rashan Gary has regressed. The defense was supposed to be good enough to weather the loss of Davante Adams on offense, as the team should have been able to lean on their efficient running game, a few veteran receivers, and field stretching rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Instead, the line has suffered health and performance issues, AJ Dillon continues to suffer a huge sophomore slump, and the rookie receivers can’t hang onto the ball when they’re healthy enough to play.

Muffled Punt, Baffling Penalty

The Packers should have won their last game against Washington. A muffed punt and a baffling penalty that negated an Eric Stokes fumble return for a touchdown kept it close, and Washington’s halftime adjustments to more power running, and more aggressive coverage on defense, were enough to secure the game. Some of this is just bad luck, but more than that, the way the Packers play has always made them more susceptible to bad luck than an average team. They run a very slow offense, and over the course of a season, they run far fewer plays than every other team except the 49ers. Rodgers’ and Davante Adams’ brilliance used to be enough to limit the impact of bad luck, but in their diminished form, that is no longer the case. Their low-octane offense needs to execute nearly perfectly to put up points as they are incapable of hitting on big plays. When they make a mistake, it more often than not turns into a big play for their opponent, and that’s that.

They next face the well-rested Buffalo Bills, in Buffalo, coming off their bye week. Buffalo is easily the best team in the NFL, ranking first in offense and defense by nearly every metric available. They have one of the league’s two best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, and a well-balanced and explosive receiving corps led by former Viking Stefon Diggs. They also possess the league’s best rushing defense, meaning the Packers will not be able to simply lean on Aaron Jones.

If the Packers are to stand any chance against the Bills, they’ll need to drastically alter their offensive and defensive strategies. The Bills have struggled twice this year, against the Dolphins and Ravens, when each team made a concerted effort to take away Diggs. The Packers actually have the ability to copy this blueprint by devoting Jaire Alexander to the task, relying on Rasul Douglas to match up with Isaiah McKenzie, and Eric Stokes to go toe-to-toe with Gabriel Davis. Stokes has struggled this year against shiftier receivers, but he should be able to stick with Davis deep. 

Even if the defense can hold their own for a while, Aaron Rodgers simply cannot be as conservative in this game as he’s been this year. If you attempt to dink and dunk your way down the field against Buffalo, you will quickly find yourself punting, and down by two scores. While Green Bay is likely to be missing receivers Allen Lazard (shoulder), Randall Cobb (ankle), and Christian Watson (Hamstring), they will have former Bill Sammy Watkins, and they’ll need to lean on him as a significant deep threat to have any chance. They should also consider giving more touches to 7^th round receiver Samori Touré, who caught his first NFL pass last week, and who was a dangerous deep threat at Nebraska.

The Packers have failed to properly diagnose and respond to the opponent they are facing every single time this season. Facing a superior opponent like Buffalo requires drastic changes to their existing strategy. This game is their last realistic chance to make the schematic changes necessary to be legitimate contenders this season. If they get blown out like most expect, they should seriously consider selling before next Wednesday’s trade deadline.