Why Did the Packers Fall Short?

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Photo: Evan Siegle packers.com

Matt LaFleur Dec. 19, 2022

Matt LaFleur

The Packers dominated in the regular season, going 13-4, and winning the one seed in the NFC. However, their playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round was presaged by several immense weaknesses which were eventually exploited. Every team has their strengths and weaknesses, but truly great teams have their weaknesses under control. The Packers were never able to improve their special teams, and their lack of pass-catching weapons made them vulnerable against good defenses, which is an all-too-common theme over the Aaron Rodgers era.

The Packers fielded several elite units in 2022, and their grades reflect that. The Packers never needed to improve on their “A” units, they just needed to move a few Fs to C. Ultimately, they lost out on a Super Bowl opportunity because too many of their players were well below average. Worse, their salary cap situation will make adding depth in 2022 extremely difficult. Let’s get started with the offense.

Quarterbacks: B+

It may seem ridiculous to give Aaron Rodgers anything other than a solid “A.” Rodgers is likely to win the 2021 MVP award, and he leads the league in every advanced statistic including EPA/play, DVOA, and ANY/A. His conventional statistics are nearly as good, as he finished third in completion percentage, first in interception percentage, fourth in touchdowns, and first in touchdown percentage. Rodgers also made several vintage Rodgers throws and played clutch football in key moments.

That said, Rodgers still struggled with consistency against good defenses, and his unwillingness to take risks sometimes led the offense to stall out. In the very first week of the season, New Orleans, which featured one of the league’s best defenses despite a down year, completely shut Rodgers out. It never got quite so bad again, but the offense ran into issues against Arizona, the Rams, the Bengals, the Browns and of course, the 49ers.

Rodgers’ reliance on Davante Adams works much of the time simply because of Adams’ ability to dominate almost any coverage, but it can and did become a liability in certain circumstances, especially when the opposing defense was able to limit checkdowns to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Part of his failure to target receivers other than Adams can be blamed on the quality of those receivers, however at some point Rodgers needed to trust Lazard or St. Brown to make plays.

Finally, a slow pace of play is not necessarily a good or bad thing, but given the Packers’ efficiency on offense, a small increase in pace would have led to more secure leads, fewer delay penalties, and fewer timeouts. Rodgers prefers to take the play clock down in order to gather as much information about the defense as possible and it works for him, but lack of pace also leads to more close games, and allowing games to stay close can be costly.

Jordan Love saw action for six quarters, and showed no signs of significant development. While he possesses some raw athleticism, he is awkward in the pocket and on the move. His accuracy and ball placement haven’t improved since his senior season, and if anything, his mechanics have gotten worse, robbing him of velocity.

Offensive Line: B

The Packer offensive line has been a force throughout Rodgers’ career, and it continued to be in 2021 despite severe injuries to virtually every starter. The line as a unit finished fifth in ESPN’s Pass Block Win rate, and fourth in Run Block Win Rate despite playing without starters David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, and Billy Turner for much of the season. In their stead, Yosh Nijman was good filling in at left tackle, and showed flashes of becoming something more with additional development. Nijman is one of the best pure athletes on the team, and a year of on-the-job technique training will serve him well.

John Runyan held up remarkably well and looks to be another great late round find for Green Bay. Royce Newman struggled with motion and stunts but provided adequate protection. Dennis Kelly had a disaster start against San Francisco facing Nick Bosa without much help, but he should not have been in that position in the first place, and the decision to start him, and not the Turner/Nijman combination is on Matt LaFleur. Kelly was one of the best run-blockers on the line, and he is better in a situational role. Lucas Patrick’s lack of push in the middle allowed for too much interior pressure. He’s not a bad player, and his ability to move between guard and center was useful, but he was occasionally a problem.

The versatility of Elgton Jenkins and Billy Turner allowed the makeshift line to function at a high level regardless of the players around them. Jenkins was easily the best player on the line when healthy, but in run and pass blocking, but Turner was also outstanding, especially in pass protection.

Wide Receivers: B-

Davante Adams is put up an A+ season with 123 receptions, tied for the ninth most single season receptions in NFL history. Adams’ possesses the best release in the league and is almost always open in the second after the ball is snapped. Adams does a lot of the Packers’ dirty work on quick hitters and bubble-screens, which suppresses his efficiency statistics, but he still finished second in Football Outsiders DYAR to Cooper Kupp and had an impressive 17.5% DVOA. Adams was second to Kupp in targets, receptions, yards per game, and third to Kupp and Justin Jefferson in total yards. Adams is a free agent, and as the league’s best receiver, he is likely to cash in (or suffer the franchise tag).

Unfortunately, the rest of the receiving corps took a major step back. Marquez Valdes-Scantling entered the season as the second receiver to Adams, but he saw his catch percentage sink from 52.4% to 47.3%. It is difficult for a receiver to be a net positive contributor when catching fewer than half his targets, even with MVS’ lofty per-catch totals. MVS also missed six games, the first time since he entered the league that he has missed time for an injury.

Allen Lazard is the best blocking receiver in football, which is crucial to the success of outside runs in Matt LaFleur’s offense. That said, Lazard’s primary job is still to catch passes, and an uncharacteristic case of the drops robbed him of efficiency early. To his credit, he rallied late to catch every contested pass after week 12, finishing fifth in DVOA among all receivers. His early season struggles may have cost him some of Rodgers’ trust, and he sometimes had issues disengaging from his blocking assignments, which left him unavailable for targets.

Rodgers lobbied for the addition of Randall Cobb, and for the most part it paid off. Cobb was efficient with his opportunities, leading the Packers with 9.6 yards per target, but he wasn’t targeted much, and a core muscle injury late in the season rendered him ineffective when they needed him most. Equanimeous St. Brown flashed speed and explosiveness and did some nice work in the jet sweep role, but they Packers didn’t use him nearly enough.

Amari Rodgers was a disaster on special teams and showed almost nothing on offense. Malik Taylor failed to make anything out of his limited opportunities. Juwann Winfree is just a guy. The team should bring back late season addition David Moore to return punts.

Tight Ends: D

Robert Tonyan was a huge part of the 2020 offense, catching 88% of his targets and scoring 11 touchdowns. That lofty catch percentage was not sustainable, unfortunately, and cratered to just 62%, robbing Tonyan of essentially all of his utility. He was in the middle of his best game of the season, and a potential rebound game against Arizona when he suffered a season-ending injury. Marcedes Lewis still blocks like a tackle, and he was a nice gadget weapon, showing good power in space. He’ll be remembered for his fumble against the 49ers, but that shouldn’t define his 2021 season as he had a nice all-around year, finishing as the eighth highest graded tight end (of 70) at Pro Football Focus. Josiah Deguara led the team in targets by tight ends but averaged under 10 yards per reception and had some crushing drops. He showed some heft as a blocker, and as an H-back he is perfectly fine. Tyler Davis flashed some speed late in the season and may be worth keeping an eye on. Dominique Dafney is a fine blocker.

No one was able to fill Tonyan’s shoes as a reliable middle weapon and seam-buster, including Tonyan himself. The lack of a decent backup receiving tight end is a limiting factor in LaFleur’s offense and had a major impact on the offense over the course of the season.

Running Backs: A

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were a true thunder and lightning combination, in the best sense of the word. Jones finished with a 9.9% DVOA to Dillon’s 9.8%, but they accumulated value in vastly different ways. Jones had an extreme “boom and bust” season, with a 50% success rate (32nd in the league), but 5 carries of 25 yards or more, and a gaudy 4.7 yards per carry average. Dillon didn’t have the huge runs (just 2 carries over 17 yards), and his short yardage and goal line duties depressed his average a bit (4.3 yards per carry), but he was amazingly consistent, leading the league with a 63% success rate, and excelling in pushing piles, and yards after contact.

Their profiles followed them as receivers where Dillon caught all but 3 of his targets and ranked sixth in DVOA as a pass catcher. Jones took a great deal of dump-off duty which depressed his per-play value, but he was also a threat downfield as we saw against San Francisco as we saw near the end of the first half.

Patrick Taylor didn’t get on the field much, but he showed balance and power comparable to Dillon. Green Bay simply excels at finding valuable running backs.

Defense

Defensive Line: B+

Kenny Clark is one of the best interior defenders in football when healthy, and he proved it this year. A force in on run defense and as a pass rusher, he is the most important defender of the front seven, and at least partially responsible for great seasons from De’Vondre Campbell, Dean Lowry, Rashan Gary, and Preston Smith. Clark’s 4 sacks were fourth on the team, his 6 TFL’s were third on the team, and the attention he demands from opposing offenses ensures that everyone else remains free.

Dean Lowry set a career high with 5 sacks, and played an active, athletic defensive end chasing down ball carriers, and pressuring quarterbacks. Lowry can still be wiped out by heavy personnel, but as a pure pass-rusher he is quite good. Tyler Lancaster is fine as an anchor, though he’s also as mobile as one. TJ Slaton flashed mobility for a big man, but he’s still a work in progress. Kingsley Keke’s late release was a surprise, after a decent year as a run-stopper.

Linebackers: A

It’s hard to remember a season when the Packer linebackers win the highest grade on the team, but in 2021 they absolutely deserve it. On the edge, Rashan Gary broke out as a bona fide star. His 9.5 sacks led the team, but more importantly, he finished third in the NFL with 87 pressures, and harassed quarterbacks constantly. Gary can be overaggressive, and sometimes loses the edge, but it hardly matters. Gary creates splash plays, and ends drives single-handedly.

Preston Smith was almost as good, finishing with nine sacks, and playing well in all facets of defense, including pass coverage where he had two passes defended. Smith is at his best on passing downs, but he brought solid effort to the run game as well. Whitney Mercilus had a nice run until he was lost with a bicep injury.

On the inside, De’Vondre Campbell was simply incredible. As a downhill tackler he rarely missed and was maneuvered expertly through the gaps created by Clark in front of him. Campbell was also the rare Packer inside linebacker to excel in coverage, earning an elite 83.9 grade from Pro Football Focus, and cashing in with five passes defended and two picks. Campbell finished the season as PFF’s second overall linebacker behind only the outstanding Micah Parsons of Dallas. It’s rare to see a player break out in his sixth season but Campbell was a perfect fit in the Joe Barry offense, and one of the best signings Brian Gutekunst will ever make.

Krys Barnes was a capable second fiddle in heavy packages, and a game special teamer, as was Oren Burks. Fortunately, the Packers don’t use multiple off-ball linebackers often, and Campbell is all that matters.

Secondary: B+

Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry did a nice job working around some high-profile injuries. The edge rushing group was barely impacted by the almost season-long absence of Za’Darius Smith, but the biggest feather in his cap is the outstanding play of the secondary with Jaire Alexander, who was lost to a shoulder injury for the regular season after week four.

The midseason acquisition of Rasul Douglas, poached from the Arizona practice squad, was a big reason. Douglas, who finished the season ranked 17th of 120 corners in PFF’s grading, proved any-and-all doubters wrong. His lofty PFF grade understates his value, as he doesn’t get adequate credit for the clutch nature of his interceptions, including two pick-sixes, and a game-sealer against the Cardinals. He led the team in picks with 5, he was second in passes defended with 13, 5^th in tackles, and a solid run defender to boot. At the time of his acquisition Stephon Gilmore was the hot name among available corners. Douglas was far more valuable.

Rookie Eric Stokes struggled early in the season, but by the time the second half started it was clear that the Packers had something special on their hands. Quarterbacks completed just 49.5% of their targets when going after Stokes, while putting up a 71.3% passer rating. The most exciting thing about Stokes is that there is still some projectible room for improvement. His technique is a work in progress, but he made significant strides over the course of the season in reading routes and taking proper angles. Stokes relied too much on his elite speed early, but by week 10 against Seattle, he was using his speed as a weapon instead of a crutch. He will never be a great tackler, and his hands need work, as he dropped a potential game-winning pick-six against San Francisco in the playoffs, but he has the makings of a shut-down outside corner.

Chandon Sullivan struggled in the slot, and while he did have three timely interceptions, he was also the obvious target of opposing offenses. Kevin King was a good sport about his demotions, and while his talent has been sapped by injuries, his effort is still evident.

Adrian Amos did what he does every year, which is to play the safety position, in all aspects, as well as it can be played. Amos does not have a single down year on his resume, and continues to be a model of consistent tackling, above-average coverage, and great hands, should a quarterback challenge him too closely. He was second on the team with 93 tackles, contributed two picks, and cleaned up any mess the secondary happened to make.

Darnell Savage, on the other hand, suffered a bit of a setback. While Eric Stokes transformed his raw speed into great coverage, Savage still let’s his considerable athletic gifts take him out of position far too frequently. He was frequently abused in coverage by the league’s better tight ends, who capitalized on his small stature, and against deep throws, he would frequently let himself wander. Savage ranked 72nd of 94 safeties graded by PFF, and that seems about right. Savage’s technique, and attention to detail should be better by this point. Henry Black was a major liability in pass coverage and made several key errors in special teams.

Special Teams: F

Simply awful. It’s almost hard to catalog all of the various ways in which the Packers’ special teams failed this season. They suffered near constant breakdowns in kickoff and punt coverage, and routinely allowed huge returns, as they did against Jakeem Grant of the Bears, and Deebo Samuel of the 49ers. Their blocking units routinely made basic errors resulting in blocked kicks and penalties.

Corey Bojorquez struggled with his holding, which was certainly a factor in Mason Crosby’s terrible season in which he made only 73.5% of his field goals, and just 96% of his PATs. You can’t put it all on Bojorquez though, as Crosby has clearly lost some leg strength, and should be replaced on kickoffs going forward, should he continue in the NFL. His inability to reach the end zone in the playoffs was a key factor in allowing the 49ers to keep the game close.

Bojorquez started the season well, averaging about 48 yards per punt through November, and rating as one of the five best in football, but when the temperatures crashed, so did Corey. His average from December through the playoffs crashed to 43 yards, including an absolutely dreadful 33 yards per punt in January.

The Packers replaced struggling long snapper Hunter Bradley with Steven Wirtel in early November in an attempt to fix their snapping issues, and it’s hard to grade Wirtel as anything other than a disaster. His snapping was not noticeably better than Bradley’s and neither were helped by Bojorquez, but Wirtel’s blocking technique was noticeably worse. Against San Francisco he failed to get proper leverage on defensive end Jordan Willis and was effortlessly walked into the backfield. Long snappers aren’t asked to do much, but there is a minimum level of blocking acumen one must have, and Wirtel did not have it.

The Packers ended the season with only 10 men on the field against a game-winning field goal, which is their season in microcosm, as they left the rest of the team to try to win games with only two phases. Special Teams cost the Green Bay Packers a trip to the Super Bowl.

Coaching: B

The LaFleur offense is a thing of beauty when properly executed, however, personnel limitations sometimes limited the playbook, and left Aaron Rodgers playing hero ball. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen every year, and this season, it happened at the worst possible time. Adam Stenavich deserves and will get a raise for his work with the offensive line, as he was promoted to offensive coordinator with Nathaniel Hackett (Denver) and Luke Getsy (Chicago) moving on. Joe Barry brought much-needed competence to the defense, and most importantly, made solid strides in developing younger players.

Maurice Drayton took a poor special teams unit and somehow wound up with an even worse unit by orders of magnitude. They need a total rebuild of their special teams.