Photo Credit: Evan Siegle
The Packers managed to skate past an undermanned Jacksonville team, but a new, worrisome opponent has come to light: The wind. This is the second game the Packers have played in serious wind conditions this season, both against undermanned secondaries, and left a lot to be desired. The Vikings were able to ride their running attack to victory, while Jacksonville came up just a bit short thanks to the poor play of rookie quarterback Jake Luton, and a late surge by the Packer pass defense.
The good news for Green Bay is that they were able to come away with a victory under poor conditions, but their continued struggles in poor weather are troubling if they want to go deep into the playoffs. Green Bay is built like a dome team. Specifically, they are built like a typical Peyton Manning Colts team, with a great passing offense, good rushing offense, and a defense built to play with a lead. The Packers often have a lead, and when they do, this works fine, but the Colts play in a dome, while Green Bay plays in an often frigid, windy outdoor area, and when the game turns into a contest between running attacks, the Packers are at a disadvantage. That front-running defense just so happens to also be a “good weather” defense.
Jacksonville running back James Robinson is an undrafted free agent out of Illinois State, yet he was able to pick up significant yardage at will, especially in the first half. The Jaguars were playing with a rookie quarterback who was taken in the 6th round, starting his second career game. Without a real threat at quarterback, it should have been simple for the Packers to stack up Robinson. The fact that they still allowed over one hundred efficient yards doesn’t bode well for how they may stack up against a playoff-caliber running attack in January at Lambeau field.
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Fortunately, Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers, and even his poor games are often good enough to overcome the defense’s issues. With the wind howling Rodgers played a conservative game, with plenty of handoffs and short passes. That plan may have made sense on paper, but the Jaguars have the league’s worst pass defense, and it wasn’t until they decided to air it out that they took control of the game. Marquez Valdes-Scantling made his best play of the season on a 78-yard touchdown bomb to open the 2nd quarter to get the offense going, which made for a bit of a theme. Even in the wind, Rodgers was about three times as effective throwing deep (according to Expected Points Added per Play) than throwing short.
The Packer offense can also be excused a bit due to Davante Adams suffering a minor injury during the game, and Robert Tonyan’s ankle keeping him in check. Adams was also blanketed by Jacksonville’s one competent quarterback, Sidney Jones, who has had a few nice games in a row. With the team undermanned at receiver, the Jaguars decided to take away Adams as much as possible, and it paid off until Valdes-Scantling burned them.
The Indy Challenge
Next week will be the biggest test for the Packers since their loss to Tampa. The Indianapolis Colts have the 3rd best defense in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, anchored by a truly immovable run defense. They currently lead the AFC South at 6-3, and while quarterback Philip Rivers can be turnover prone, he has played well, and let his defense do the hard work for him.
Green Bay has had their troubles with good defenses, but they also have a few things working in their favor. They’re expected to get wide receiver Allen Lazard back from core muscle surgery, which should be an enormous boost to the offense. When Lazard was first placed on IR, he was second in the league in DVOA, and his efficiency is the perfect complement to Adams. The Packers will also be in perfect weather inside Lucas Oil Stadium, where their precision passing attack can operate to its full potential. The Packers are built more like a dome team, and while Indianapolis is unquestionably better than the last place Jaguars, they’re weaker when forced to run, and won’t be as well-equipped to capitalize on Green Bay’s weaknesses.
If the Packers are going to have a deep playoff run, they will need to beat teams like Indianapolis. They have feasted on a cupcake schedule filled with poor teams and backup quarterbacks. When they’ve run into a good defense, they’ve been exposed as frontrunners. Until they win a game like this, they should not be considered serious contenders.
To read more Packers coverage by Paul Noonan, click here.
