Photo credit: Keith Allison/Wikimedia Commons
Ervin Santana
Welcome to the On Deck Circle, Brewers writer Kyle Lobner's weekly look at the team's week to come and beyond.
If you enjoy watching the Milwaukee Brewers face off against high quality opponents, this may not be a good week for you.
After four consecutive series against teams that finished over .500 in 2015 (and three that made the playoffs) to open the season, this week the schedule takes a sudden turn as the Brewers will play their annual home-and-home with the seemingly hapless Twins before hosting the rebuilding Phillies for a three game set.
Coming into the year most observers saw every indication that this likely wasn’t the Phillies’ year but the Twins have somehow been still worse to in the early going, starting 0-9 before sweeping the Angels over the weekend to bounce back to 3-9. Before this season, they had never lost more than four consecutive games to open a season, and had only done that three times since relocating from Washington in 1961.
The only thing saving the Twins from complete and utter ignominy at this point is the fact that the Atlanta Braves are somehow worse. They also opened the season 0-9, prompting David Schoenfield of ESPN to say they “are shaping up as one of the most depressing teams of all time.”
Brewers fans can almost certainly relate to the pain of the Twins’ awful start, because a year ago they were in a similar place. Through 12 games in 2015 the Brewers were 2-10, losers of five straight and in the middle of a 4-17 start that would later cost manager Ron Roenicke his job. In fact, they’ve seen worse. Here’s another small bit of comfort for Twins fans: Somehow, despite an awful start, on paper they’re still pretty clearly better than the 2015 Brewers.
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Despite playing in the American League and having to face a designated hitter in place of the opposing pitcher in each day’s lineup, this Twins pitching staff is more than a full run per game better than that Brewers team. Through 12 games in 2015 the Brewers had a team ERA of 4.76, buoyed by a disastrous first three starts for Opening Day hurler Kyle Lohse (15.2 innings pitched, 18 earned runs)
Following Sunday’s 3-2, 12-inning win over the Angels, Minnesota’s team ERA is down to 3.44. That puts them in the top third of the American League. Unlike the 2015 Brewers, this Twins team’s veteran starters are pulling their weight: Ervin Santana has posted back-to-back quality starts after having to leave early on Opening Day, and noted aging albatross contract Ricky Nolasco has pitched seven solid innings in each of his first two starts. The Brewers will see Santana on Tuesday afternoon and Nolasco on Thursday afternoon.
At the plate, this underachieving Twins team also wins a tale of the tape against last year’s depressingly slow-starting Brewers. Minnesota is hitting .224 with a .301 on-base percentage and .343 slugging through 12 games, ranking eleventh in the American League in OPS (on-base plus slugging). The 2015 Brewers were worse through 12 games in every category, batting .215 with a .264 on-base percentage and .301 slugging. The 2016 Twins have seven home runs through 12 games, compared to the 2015 Brewers’ three. Somehow, however, the 2015 Brewers did a slightly better job of stringing their bright spots together: They had 30 runs through 12 games, as compared to this Twins team’s 28.
Continuing the Twins’ theme of veteran players pulling in the right direction despite their team’s poor results, we have Joe Mauer. Mauer has played in all 12 of Minnesota’s games to date and is hitting .372 with a .472 on-base percentage and .512 slugging. Mauer turns 33 this week but his numbers to date reflect a significant improvement over his work in each of the last two seasons.
Hopefully it won’t ruin anyone’s Monday morning if we acknowledge that the Brewers probably won’t win all four against the Twins this week. If in fact they do drop a game, please remember that this Twins team isn’t actually that bad—especially as compared to some of the teams we’ve seen recently.
