The Otherworldly Potential Of Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo has already come a long way in his NBA journey. When the Milwaukee Bucks somewhat unexpectedly selected the young forward with the 15th pick in the NBA Draft , he was an unproven, skinny, raw NBA prospect. In the two seasons since, he’s grown two inches, added nearly 30 pounds of muscle and demonstrated a tireless work ethic that will help him to achieve his massive potential.

If you compare Antetokounmpo's early years and development with the NBA's best who have similar physical tools, it's clear that he's on track to blossom in the 2015-2016 season. The unusual and intriguing thing about Antetokounmpo is that his skill-set for his size is almost unprecedented. If he's able to minimize the amount of mistakes he makes, the amount of positive contributions he can make on both ends of the court is longer than his last name. With his combination of size, quickness, willingness to learn and the fact that he's only 20 years old, Antetokounmpo has a chance to develop into the single best player in the NBA (with close competition from Anthony Davis at every step along the way, but more on that later).

The Measuring Stick for Greatness

The criterion on which to judge a player’s value is not completely cut and dry, but there is a scientific method to breaking down overall performance. PER (player efficiency rating), is a statistic developed by ESPN columnist John Hollinger. It is a mathematical equation which assigns value to a player’s positive contributions and subtracts their negative contributions to create a comprehensive stock of the player’s overall performance, and an effective way to complete players to those who only excel in specific areas. The players who top the PER rankings every season are the ones who contribute on the offensive and defensive end, guys like Paul George, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and, as of recently, Davis.

During the 2014-'15 season, the aforementioned Anthony Davis ran away with the category, with a 30.89 PER despite Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook averaging a near triple-double over the last two months of the season, which resulted in Westbrook boasting a 29.12 PER. Prior to Davis’ spectacular 2014, James and Durant had ruled the NBA in player efficiency since 2008. James' highest PER was a 31.76 in 2008-2009, while Durant's was a 29.90 in 2013-'14. 

The reason for Davis, Durant and James’s high level of efficiency? Their ability to have a profound impact on the game offensively and defensively. Antetokounmpo is cut from that same cloth. Many of the NBA’s stars are surrounded with good defensive players so that they don’t have to waste too much energy on the defensive end (we’re looking at you, James Harden) which limits their PER. On the other side of the coin, players like Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah and Draymond Green are defensive anchors who make limited contributions on the offensive end.

Let's compare Antetokounmpo's career trajectory with the two most comparable NBA stars: The Oklahoma City Thunder's Durant and the New Orleans Pelicans' Davis. When Antetokounmpo becomes a fully developed NBA player, his game will be a sort of a hybrid between Durant and Davis, so contrasting his abilities with those of Davis and Durant is the closest thing to an apt comparison in gauging his future.

A High-Brow Comparison

Suffice it to say that Davis is a phenomenal talent and sets the bar of competition extremely high. With players who are as physically imposing and innately gifted as Davis and Antetokounmpo, coaching is what separates the cream of the crop from the role players. For every Anthony Davis there are fifty Jonathan Benders.

Antetokounmpo will undoubtedly have the best season of his young career in 2015-'16. He'll be turning 21 this season and has only spent one full season under strong tutelage. He didn’t play college ball and, as a rookie, saw his development stagnated by poor coaching (not to name any names) during the Bucks’ atrocious 2013-'14 season. He's also experienced a different style of coaching playing for Fotios Katsikaris as a member of the Greek national team

In comparison, Davis is now 22 and has already played under a number of the best basketball coaches in the world. He played under John Calipari at Kentucky, has played at the Olympic level for Team USA under Mike Krzyzewski, and has three years of above-average NBA coaching under his belt with the underrated Monty Williams in New Orleans.  Davis' game is more refined than that of Antetokounmpo, but look for Antetokounmpo to catch up as he continues to be challenged by good coaching.

The Durantula and the Greek Freak

Now let's see how Antetokounmpo's first seasons measure up against Durant's. Although they are very different players in terms of what they're asked to do by their team, they possess similar physical tools and should have a similar impact on the floor.

Imagine that Antetokounmpo's mediocre rookie season equates to what would've been his only year in college, and let's treat last year as his rookie season. When Antetokounmpo entered the NBA in 2013-'14, he was undisciplined and was playing for a disorganized team. From the 2013-'14 to the 2014-'15 season, Antetokounmpo's PER increased dramatically, from a 10.82 PER with .3 estimated wins added in 2013-'14 to a 14.89 PER and 5.1 estimated wins added in 2014-'15. If we're discounting the 2013-'14 season, Antetokounmpo's 2014-'15 numbers are very similar to those that Durant put up in his rookie season, with better defensive stats, lower usage and fewer turnovers.  The advantage that Giannis has over a young Durant is that he plays for a much more cohesive team, and he doesn't have to play hero ball.

Durant had a 15.87 PER in his rookie season and saw it climb to a 20.85 in his second year, followed by a big leap to a 26.2 in his third season. Durant has a much more refined offensive game than Antetokounmpo, particularly in his mid-range and long-range shooting, but he also struggled in those areas early on in his career. Durant only shot 43% in his first NBA season, including 28% from three-point range. Antetokounmpo is a lower-usage, higher efficiency scorer than Durant, which we'll detail in more depth below. This year, Antetokounmpo's shooting and ability to get to the free throw line will improve and he should see a similar growth in his scoring numbers that Durant did between his first and second seasons. Look for Antetokounmpo's PER to make a similar jump in his third season as Durant's did in his second.

Kidd's Kid

Since the Jason Kidd era began in Milwaukee last season, the mental and technical elements of Antetokounmpo's game have grown by leaps and bounds. Kidd's staff is adept at developing young players and Kidd himself is a tremendously effective leader.

For example, when Kidd was unhappy with Antetokounmpo’s lack of effort in a game last season, he benched his young star for a game. When Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup the following game, he responded with a fiery performance, a game against

the New York Knicks in which he debuted his Super Saiyan-esque mean mug. ("His power level is too high!")

Shooting Pains

One of the Bucks' biggest areas of concern going into the 2015-'16 season is the departure of Brandon Knight, Jared Dudley and Ersan Ilyasova. They will have difficulties spacing the floor on offense. The success of the Bucks' offense in 2015-'16 will partly hinge on Antetokounmpo's ability to hit jump shots, because otherwise defenses will be able to sag off of him to prevent his dribble penetration.

Outside and mid-range shooting is Antetokounmpo’s Achilles heel and has always been the single weakest element of his game. Bucks fans can frequently be heard saying, "Just wait until Giannis has a jumper." Last year, when asked what his biggest fear is on the NBA court, Antetokounmpo replied “the 3 point line.” This was evidenced by his drop from 2.2 three-point attempts per 36 minutes in his rookie season to only .6 attempts per 36 minutes last year. Antetokounmpo's shooting form and confidence has been an area of focus for the Bucks coaching staff over the course of last season and this summer, and he’s worked with Bucks shot-doctor Josh Oppenheimer on raising and quickening his release.

Last season, Antetokounmpo's shot was just 7-44 from three point range on the season. Over the summer, while playing with the Greek National Team, he made more three-pointers (12) over the course of ten games than the entirety of last season, although to be fair the international three-point shot distance is shorter than that of the NBA. Nevertheless, his form appears to have drastically improved over the summer.

He showed off his improved form while playing for Greece this summer:

Low-Post Highlights

One of Antetokounmpo's biggest strengths is that his size, quickness, footwork and ball-handling ability make him a match-up nightmare for opposing defenses in the low-post. If the opposing coach elects to have a guard or small forward defend him, he can overpower them or use his length to shoot over them. If he’s defended by a power forward or center, he can use his quickness and growing array of dribble moves to get past them and to the rim.

Those who watch the Bucks on a game-by-game basis have seen a marked improvement in his low-post offensive abilities over the course of his young career. As running isolation for Antetokounmpo becomes a growing part of Kidd’s offensive game plan, Antetokounmpo will begin to demand a double-team and will be able to use his court vision to find the open teammate when the help defender moves over.

Below, he utilizes his above-average ball handling on a power post move to get by the much smaller Jamal Crawford. Small guards ending up defending Antetokounmpo are the types of mismatches that Kidd's movement offense will frequently create, as almost every Bucks player possesses an abnormally large wingspan and the Bucks like to run a ton of screens and pick and rolls.

Here Antetokounmpo uses his left hand to finish on a baby-hook shot after effortlessly backing down a larger defender, Portland's Thomas Robinson. With Antetokounmpo's length, he can shoot that baby-hook with either hand over almost any defender.

Last season, Antetokounmpo adopted Dirk Nowitzki's patented one-legged fall away jumper, which he goes to when posting up a larger player. The move is effective because it initiates as a post up to get the defender back on his heels, and that maneuver is followed up by a quick step-back. Below he uses that move to take advantage of the larger defender, Tristan Thompson of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

When faced with a smaller defender, Giannis is adept at using his size and length to overpower them to create an easy basket or draw a foul in the post. His ability to finish in the paint is above average because of his great body control and his enormous hands, but the remarkable thing is that he can overpower larger defenders while being quicker than smaller defenders (you'd think it'd be the other way around.) Here he is using his left hand when finishing after backing down a larger defender, power forward Thomas Robinson of the Portland Trail Blazers.

If Antetokounmpo couples his low-post game with a new-found ability to hit the outside jumper, he will have a very similar offensive repertoire to Davis in the half-court. But he also possesses the basketball I.Q. to create easy looks for himself off the ball.

The First Cut is the Deepest

If Antetokounmpo were not an NBA player, he could be an exemplary wide receiver in the NFL. He has become one of the league's best at receiving the ball in traffic and presents a huge target for passers when he makes his quick cuts toward the hoop. His body control in the air and ability to finish contested shots will make this facet of his game a dangerous and efficient offensive weapon that will keep his usage down and buoy his shooting percentage.

This year's Bucks starting five is made up of five great passers. New center Greg Monroe will demand double-teams in the post against many opponents, which will enable Antetokounmpo to get a lot of easy layups and dunks from making quick cuts or moving off of screens. 

It also doesn’t hurt that Antetokounmpo is frequently matched up with the opposing team’s power forward. Below he catches the L.A. Clippers’ Blake Griffin watching the ball and makes his move like a lion hunting a gazelle:

Antetokounmpo moves extremely well off of teammate penetration. Below, Kendall Marshall breaks down the defense and as they momentarily lose track of the Greek Freak, he makes his quick move to the rim.

The Defense Does Not Rest

The thing that sets players like Bryant and James apart from their peers is that they take the responsibility of defending the opposing team’s best players night in and night out. As Antetokounmpo's offensive game improves, he will also continue to develop into a defensive stopper and that combination will greatly improve the team playing around him.

Here Antetokounmpo uses quick footwork to shut down the New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony on the perimeter down the stretch in a Bucks win last season:</p>

Antetokounmpo’s 7”4 wingspan and added muscle will allow him to defend the opponent’s best player almost every game, whether they be a guard, forward or all but a handful of centers. The challenge for him will be to avoid getting called for fouls against opponent’s best offensive players, as he was second in the NBA in fouls committed in 2015.

One reason for his high volume of fouls is his struggle to block shots cleanly without contact. Shot-blocking is a difficult skill to hone at the NBA level, as it requires impeccable timing. Antetokounmpo has shown he possesses a propensity for generating blocks out of help-defense or chasing down opponent players from behind on the fastbreak, two situations where he's able to control the timing of the play. His ability to block shots as a help defender will prove an exceedingly valuable skill to his team playing next to Monroe and Parker, who are both sub-par shot-blockers.

Here's an example of Antetokounmpo's excellent ability to recover as a help defender:

Cleaning Up the Glass

Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard will be the top rebounding small

forwards in the NBA for years and years to come. In 2014-'15, Antetokounmpo had the third best rebounding numbers of any small forward, at 6.7 per game, up from 4.4 per game in his

rookie season. With his added strength and increasing confidence playing inside, look for Giannis to overtake Draymond Green and Leonard as the best rebounding wingman in the NBA this season.

This summer, Antetokounmpo showed off his improved rebounding prowess with the Greek National Team, as he pulled down 17 rebounds against the Spanish National Team, many of which were in traffic over the Chicago Bulls' Pau Gasol.

Antetekounmpo has a rare combination of a tireless work ethic and extraordinary innate physical gifts. Kidd summed it up recently when he told Charles Gardner of the Journal Sentinel, “Giannis has the total package…It’s just a matter of him understanding what can take place because of all of the skill sets he has.” He's a player who can achieve legendary feats as all of his skills coalesce. The key for Antetokounmpo to becoming the best of the best will be developing into the type of player who is able to dig his heels in and refuse to allow his team to lose, and he's well on his way.