Brewers’ Bullpen Depth Gives Them Strategic Options

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Photo via Blake Snell - Instagram

Blake Snell

Blake Snell

It’s an unlikely scenario, but halfway through the MLB offseason a free agent market for the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner doesn’t seem to have developed.

In a winter where teams have spent about $800 million on free agent pitchers, including nearly $400 million on imports from Japan, one of the pitchers still waiting to learn his new team was one of baseball’s best just a few months ago. In November Blake Snell became just the 22nd pitcher ever to win multiple Cy Young Awards, collecting a 2023 trophy from the Padres to display next to the one he won in 2018 with the Rays. Snell, who turned 31 in December, has a 3.20 ERA across nearly 1000 career innings, has struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings for his career and has won league ERA titles in each of his two Cy Young seasons. This winter, however, there’s barely been a rumor about him and the teams looking to make a splash have seemed to prefer other options.

Entering the winter MLB Trade Rumors predicted Snell would get a seven-year, $200 million contract while Ben Clemens of FanGraphs had a much more modest five years and $140 million for him. He still might get a contract in that range from a team who needs help once the other top candidates are off the board, but it’s rare for a reigning Cy Young winner to be seen as a fallback plan.

Injury Challenges

Snell has had some injury challenges during his run as one of the game’s best pitchers but the primary concern with him has been that, even when healthy, he doesn’t pitch many innings because he rarely works deep into games. Across his eight MLB seasons he’s averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start. His tendency to try to get hitters to swing and miss around the edge of the plate leads to a lot of walks and, even when he’s not walking batters, drives up his pitch count. Snell had seven outings in 2023 where he threw 99 or more pitches and was done after five innings.

The Brewers are unlikely to offer Snell or anyone else a $100 million contract, but they might be better positioned to find value in a pitcher like him than many other teams would be. While the Brewers have question marks in a few spots around their roster, their bullpen should be one of their strongest points. Devin Williams returns for a second full season in the closer role after posting 36 saves with a 1.53 ERA in 2023. He’s joined by virtually every pitcher who succeeded in the late innings for the team last year: Joel Payamps, Elvis Peguero, Hoby Milner, Bryse Wilson, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill are all back for another season. Those seven pitchers combined to post a 2.44 ERA and strike out 9.7 batters per nine innings last season, and they did so while pitching about two and a half innings per game.

The Brewers’ success finding bullpen depth means they’re more likely to win a game where the starter leaves early. Despite Snell’s 2.25 ERA for the season the Padres lost 15 of the 32 games when he started. On the days when he started the Padres gave up 47 runs in the 180 innings when he was on the mound (.26 runs per inning) and 66 runs in the 108 innings the bullpen had to fill after he left (.61 runs per inning). Snell’s early departures exposed a Padres bullpen that struggled in the middle innings. The Brewers have a group in their bullpen that doesn’t project to have that problem.

Corbin Won the Cy Young

In fact, the Brewers have had success in the recent past with a pitcher with a similar workload. In 2021 Corbin Burnes won the National League Cy Young Award after a season where he posted a 2.43 ERA but worked just 167 innings. Burnes averaged less than six innings per appearance across his 28 starts that season but the Brewers still won 19 of those 28 games, at least in part because the pitchers who worked behind him allowed just 37 runs in the 85 innings they covered after he left games (.43 per inning).

While the Brewers’ bullpen depth could allow them to cover for a dominant pitcher who works short outings, it could also be used as an argument not to invest in starting pitching. If the Brewers have the arms available to get a game across the finish line after a short start, it stands to reason that they could experience success by trying out lots of inexpensive options and simply hoping those starters can successfully navigate two trips through an opposing batting order. The Brewers won 26 games where their starter pitched five innings or less last season.

Either way, the Brewers’ bullpen projects to be one of this team’s strongest assets in 2024. Having the depth of talent they’ve accumulated out there allows them to succeed in ways that aren’t available to all of their rivals.