Photo: Christian Yelich - Instagram
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
It’s a good problem to have, to be sure, but down the stretch this season and in the years ahead the Brewers are going to have an interesting puzzle to solve at the top of their order.
Two of the biggest stories of this season have both been in the Brewers’ outfield: First, 2023 has been a remarkable bounce-back season for Christian Yelich, who has already provided more value to the Brewers this season than in any year since he nearly won a second consecutive National League MVP Award in 2019. Recently, however, he’s been spending most of his playing time working alongside another possible star outfielder, as former first round pick and top prospect Sal Frelick has burst onto the scene. Frelick has only appeared in 21 games at the MLB level, but he’s appeared ready to stick in the lineup, as he has a .402 on-base percentage and .468 slugging and has been involved in several key late-inning moments.
Both players have skill sets that most likely fit near the top of a lineup, where their combination of on-base skills and speed can be best utilized. This season the Brewers have continued the relatively recent development of batting Yelich in the leadoff spot despite returning power numbers that would perhaps suggest otherwise. Yelich has batted first in 95 of his 113 starts and 47 of his last 49 games this season. Over the latter stretch he’s batting .320 with a .399 on-base and .513 slugging, so he’s clearly doing well in that spot even if his performance suggests he could be utilized elsewhere.
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To date the Brewers have opted not to use Frelick in the upper third of the lineup, but his performance may merit consideration there going forward. Across his first stretch in the majors Frelick has been used most frequently as a #4 hitter, and he’s been productive there but not the type of player teams typically slot into that role.
Optimal Arrangements?
Going forward it would make sense for the Brewers to look to get both Yelich and Frelick near the top of their lineup, perhaps as high as #1 and #2 or #2 and #3. In the early 2000s David Pinto of Baseball Musings developed a tool to analyze lineups and identify optimal arrangements, and with his model 13 of the Brewers’ 17 best options involve Frelick batting first and Yelich second (Andruw Monasterio is in one of the top two spots in the others). Pinto’s model ignores a complicating factor, however: Both Yelich and Frelick bat left-handed.
The Brewers have struggled on offense against both right and left-handed pitching this season, but their struggles against lefties have been more publicized: As a team they have a .311 on-base percentage when a lefty is on the mount and a .385 slugging, both well below MLB averages in that scenario. Left-handed pitchers have been especially tough on Yelich, limiting him to a .302 on-base percentage and .336 slugging. Batting Yelich and Frelick back-to-back or even near each other would make it easier for teams to use lefty relievers to attempt to neutralize that duo.
Yelich is under contract through 2028 and Frelick is under team control through at least 2029, so the Brewers will have a while to contend with this question. Keeping lefty-righty balance near the top of the Brewers’ lineup might become an even bigger challenge in future years, however, as at some point Garrett Mitchell will need to slot into that conversation. Like Yelich and Frelick, Mitchell provides value at least in part through his on-base skills and speed that make him a likely candidate to bat near the top of the order. And, like Yelich and Frelick, he’s also a left-handed hitter. Somewhere behind them the Brewers may also have Rowdy Tellez and Brice Turang. Infielder and top prospect Tyler Black, who was recently promoted to AAA, also bats left.
Some of the Brewers’ challenges against left-handed pitching this season have been a bit overblown: As a team their .696 on-base plus slugging against lefties is actually five points higher than the same mark against righties (.691). With that said, their lineup projects to be lefty-heavy near the top in the short and long term and that’s going to create real challenges when facing same-handed pitching.
