Brewers Make Rule 5 Draft Decisions

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Photo Credit: Jean-Gabriel Fernandez

The Milwaukee Brewers have already taken several steps this offseason to add or maintain roster flexibility, and they continued that trend last week with a minimalist approach to adding minor leaguers to their 40-man roster.

Wednesday was the deadline for MLB teams to add players to their expanded roster to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 draft, where teams are allowed to select players from other organizations that have reached a minor league service time threshold but are not currently in the majors. The Brewers added three players on that day, although perhaps not the three many expected:

• Outfielder Corey Ray was an unsurprising add. The #5 overall pick in the 2016 draft and the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2018, he was added despite a rough year at the AAA level in 2019 where he was limited to just 53 games and batted .188 in an offense-friendly environment.
• From there, the Brewers went off the board a bit by adding reliever J.P. Feyereisen. Acquired in a minor trade in September, he posted a 2.49 ERA across 40 appearances at the AAA level for the Yankees in 2019 but was not included on MLB Pipeline’s list of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects.
• The Brewers went outside the organization for their third addition, acquiring 25-year-old infielder Mark Mathias from Cleveland in a minor trade. Mathias adds both positional and roster flexibility that the organization may need in the absence of Hernan Perez and Cory Spangenberg, who have both left the team this fall.

Meanwhile, one pitcher the Brewers opted to leave available may end up being one of the most intriguing names in the Rule 5 draft. Right-handed pitcher Zack Brown turns 25 next month and was the Brewers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2018, when he had a 2.44 ERA across 22 appearances for AA Biloxi and allowed just 131 walks and hits across 125 2/3 innings of work. MLB Pipeline lists Brown as the #3 prospect in the organization.

Brown moved up from the AA to AAA level in 2019 and had a disappointing season that contributed to the organization’s decision not to protect him going forward. After a year in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, Brown’s numbers saw some major inflation in the extreme offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. Brown worked 116 2/3 innings for San Antonio and allowed a 5.79 earned run average, seeing his walk and home run rates nearly double in his first taste of AAA baseball.

Across the sport teams are facing tough decisions this fall on how to evaluate performances at the AAA level in 2019. The Pacific Coast League has long been an offense-friendly environment but the switch to using major league baseballs and the addition of a new extreme hitters’ park in Las Vegas tipped the scales in a big way this year. San Antonio was perhaps the least affected by this change, leading the PCL with a 4.16 ERA, but the league ERA ballooned from 4.60 in 2018 to 5.49 in 2019. Applying that context to Brown’s season puts him just a tick above league average.

A rule change for 2020 also makes it more likely a Rule 5 pick will get to stay with their new organization. Players selected in the Major League portion of the draft must stay on their new team’s MLB roster or be offered back to their original club, but rosters are expanding from 25 to 26 next season, giving teams extra flexibility. This change could create more activity in the Rule 5 draft, as teams have an extra place to stash away a player they think can help them going forward.

Brown, however, may very well be a talent that doesn’t need to be hidden on the bottom of the roster. As a pitcher with a three-pitch arsenal, mid-90s fastball and nearly 250 innings of experience at the AA and AAA level, he’s someone that could make an MLB impact soon. The Brewers’ decision to leave him unprotected may mean he makes that impact for another organization.