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Eric Lauer
Eric Lauer
Eric Lauer has been a bright spot for the Brewers’ pitching staff over the past couple of seasons, but the success of his 2021 and 2022 campaigns has not followed him to his first pair of outings in 2023. Lauer has allowed eight runs and 17 baserunners across just 9 1/3 innings in his first two starts, including an outing on Saturday when he allowed six earned runs in four innings against the Cardinals.
He hasn’t drawn the same level of attention as some of his teammates, but over the last two years Lauer has been a steady and reliable contributor to the Brewers’ rotation. He’s made 49 starts combined between 2021 and 2022 with a 3.47 earned run average and slightly under a strikeout per inning. Only Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have logged more innings among Brewers over that span, and only those two and Freddy Peralta have recorded more strikeouts.
Lauer got a lot of attention in 2022 for adding quirky names to his pitches, but more notably he changed by throwing them harder. In 2021 the average velocity on Lauer’s four-seam fastball was above 92 miles per hour for the first time, and in 2022 he gained still more speed and was at 93.3. That faster fastball was his best pitch in 2022, but he hasn’t been able to find it so far in 2023. He’s thrown 89 four-seam fastballs in his first two starts for the Brewers this season and they’ve come in at an average of 90.5 miles per hour, the slowest of his six MLB seasons. According to Baseball Savant, which compiles MLB’s Statcast data, Lauer’s fastball velocity is in the ninth percentile among MLB pitchers.
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At Whatever Speed
“I haven’t paid attention to it a whole lot. I’m comfortable pitching at whatever speed it’s coming out. For me it’s more of a matter of finishing at bats,” Lauer told the assembled media at American Family Field after his start on Saturday. Lauer’s results tell a different story, however: From 2018 to 2020, when his fastball sat around 91, he had a 4.75 ERA across 272 2/3 innings. That’s almost a run and a half more than his ERA combined across 2021 and 2022, when it was above 92.
At one point it looked like the Brewers would be well positioned to mix and match if one of their starting pitchers struggled, but their depth has already been strained a bit this season. Aaron Ashby opened the season on the injured list with a shoulder issue and was originally expected to be back in May, but recently underwent surgery and is now unlikely to be back until September, if he pitches at all this season. Similarly, the Brewers’ starting pitching depth left Adrian Houser projected to be relegated to the bullpen. He left his last spring training appearance due to injury, however, and hasn’t pitched in a game since. He’s on a rehab assignment with AAA Nashville but is not stretched out, so the process of getting him ready to start games would take some time.
From there it’s not clear who the next option to start a game would be: Former first round pick and longtime top prospect Ethan Small is still with AAA Nashville but has been working out of the bullpen in their early games. Right hander Janson Junk, acquired in the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Angels over the winter, has allowed just one run over ten innings for Nashville. He’s on the 40-man roster, so he would make sense as a possible candidate if needed. The Brewers would almost certainly prefer not to tap this far into their organizational depth this early in the season, though.
It’s far too early to panic when it comes to Lauer, of course. It’s only been two outings and it’s entirely possible he’ll make the adjustment that gets both his velocity and results back on track. His early results are concerning, however, as he’s someone the Brewers really need to perform.
