Bryan Hudson and the Volatility of Relief Pitching

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Photo via Bryan Hudson - Instagram

Bryan Hudson

Bryan Hudson

Brewers reliever Bryan Hudson’s breakout first half lost some of its luster on a rough west coast road trip last week, but it still stands out as relatively remarkable.

Before the road trip Hudson had appeared in 29 games as a Brewer this season and allowed just four earned runs across 44 innings for a 0.82 earned run average. Opposing hitters were batting just .129 against him and he struck out 51 of the 159 batters he faced. When the Brewers boarded the plane to Colorado he had a chance to be just the second pitcher in franchise history to make at least 30 appearances before the All Star break with an ERA under 1.00.

Hudson’s success did not follow him on the trip, however: In three outings against the Rockies and Dodgers (his former team) he doubled his season total by allowing four more runs, including three home runs in Los Angeles. Even with those rough outings, however, Hudson’s ERA rose to just 1.54. Baseball Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement estimates he’s been more valuable than top stars like Willy Adames or Freddy Peralta this season.

The fickle nature of relief pitching, however, makes it virtually impossible to use a pitcher’s past results to predict future performance. Here are a few examples of pitchers who have dominated in the first half across recent Brewers history:

Josh Hader, 2021

It’s probably not fair to refer to Hader’s 2021 season as a “breakout.” He was already a two-time All Star with a career 2.54 ERA and 62 saves across his first four MLB seasons. 2021 was, however, the year he transitioned from being a very good closer to one of the game’s elite in that role: Hader struck out nearly half of the batters he faced before the All Star break that season, posting a 1.49 ERA and going all the way through the month of June without a blown save. Hader was even better after the break that season and remains one of baseball’s top relievers.

Jeremy Jeffress, 2018

If you take away situational lefties Mike Myers and Zach Duke, then the best ERA for a Brewers reliever in the first half in franchise history belongs to Jeremy Jeffress with a 1.34 mark across 46 games (also a club record for a righty) in 2018. Like Hader, Jeffress had already been a big leaguer for some time and experienced significant success before his big year: He had pitched in 271 MLB games across eight seasons and four franchises before having his best run in his third stint with Milwaukee. Jeffress was the rare non-closer to earn an All Star bid for his performance, however, and carried that success on to the second half with a 1.21 ERA after the break. 

Michael Blazek, 2015

Perhaps best known for being the pitcher the Brewers acquired for John Axford in 2013, Blazek had made just 18 MLB appearances before he burst onto the scene with a big first half in 2015, where he allowed just eight earned runs across 45 2/3 innings and was one of a small handful of bright spots on a team that went 38-52 before the break. Unfortunately, that success did not linger: Blazek pitched in just ten games in the second half with a 6.30 ERA and would only make 50 more MLB appearances.

Derrick Turnbow, 2005

Perhaps the ultimate cautionary tale about the volatility of relievers, Turnbow emerged from obscurity with a blazing fastball and had one of the best seasons by a closer in Brewers history in 2005, where he tied the franchise single season saves record with 39 and posted a 1.74 ERA. He moved into the closer role just three weeks into that season despite just 39 games of prior MLB experience. Turnbow got off to another hot start in 2006, was an NL All Star and had his own bobblehead, but by the time of that game things had already begun to unravel for him. He posted an ERA over 6 across his final three MLB seasons (including his 2006 All Star campaign) and was done in the majors by 2008.