Chalking Up the Percentages

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Photo: Luis Urías - Instagram

Luis Urías

Luis Urías

While the All Star break, traditionally used to divide the season into two halves, is still a couple of weeks away, the mathematical second half of the MLB season starts on Monday: Sunday’s game was the Brewers’ 81st of 162 scheduled contests this season, putting them exactly 50% of the way through their campaign.

The first half of this season has already seen plenty of highs and lows for the 2022 Brewers. They won 26 of their first 40 games for the first time in franchise history and have led the NL Central by as many as 4 ½ games. They’ve also endured a seven-game losing streak and placed 17 different players on the injured list, including Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Willy Adames and Kolten Wong.

Across the first 81 games of this season, we’ve also seen some all-time great individual highlights. Here are the top five moments of the first half, as sorted by Win Probability Added (WPA):

5. Luis Urías’ seventh inning home run on May 30 (Video)

In the first game of a Memorial Day doubleheader at Wrigley Field the Brewers dug an early hole, allowing the Cubs to put up multiple runs in the third and fourth innings to take a 4-2 lead. The Crew battled back to tie the game against rookie starter Matt Swarmer, however, before breaking it open against former Brewer Daniel Norris in the seventh inning. Urías’ two-out, three-run shot gave the Crew a 7-4 lead and they held on to win 7-6 in the front end of a doubleheader sweep.

4. Andrew McCutchen’s ninth inning single on April 28 (Video)

Not every clutch hit is a home run. Sometimes all you need is a line drive that just clears second base.

On a Thursday afternoon in Pittsburgh McCutchen got the Brewers started early with a leadoff home run in the top of the first inning, but from there the bats went quiet. The Pirates connected for two runs in the seventh off Brad Boxberger and took a 2-1 lead to the top of the ninth inning before the Brewers were finally able to string some hits together. Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong and Omar Narvaez all singled to load the bases for McCutchen, who hit a ball just out of the reach of Pittsburgh second baseman Josh VanMeter. Two runs scored, and the Brewers held on to win 3-2.

3. Kolten Wong’s ninth inning triple on May 18 (Video)

There are only a handful of closers in the history of Major League Baseball more prolific than longtime Dodgers and Braves reliever Kenley Jansen, who is currently tenth on the all-time list in saves and has struck out 13 batters per nine innings across 13 MLB seasons. On this day, however, the Braves called on him to protect a 4-3 lead in the ninth inning and he walked Jace Peterson, the first batter he faced, then allowed him to steal second. The Brewers were down to their final strike when Kolten Wong swung at a high fastball and lined a triple down the right field line, scoring Peterson and extending the game. The Brewers had a 15% chance to win when Wong came to the plate, but those odds improved to 63% on that single swing.

2. Keston Hiura’s eleventh inning home run on May 18 (Video)

Wong’s triple, as it turned out, would only be the second biggest hit in that game. The Brewers and Braves traded single runs in the tenth inning and the Braves scored again in the top of the eleventh, setting the stage for Keston Hiura in the bottom half. Hiura, leading off the inning with Jace Peterson on second base, hit a 1-2 pitch off the scoreboard in center field to give the Crew a 7-6 walkoff victory. Hiura’s home run traveled an estimated 447 feet, the second-longest by a Brewer so far in 2022.

1. Jace Peterson’s ninth inning triple on June 2 (Video)

Across Major League Baseball teams that enter the bottom of the ninth inning trailing by three runs only come back to win about four percent of the time, or roughly once every 25 games. On June 2 the Brewers found that unlikely win.

They were trailing 4-1 heading to the bottom of the ninth when Padres reliever Taylor Rogers, at the time was the MLB saves leader, came in to attempt to slam the door on a relatively easy opportunity to collect one more. He gave up a single to Keston Hiura, however, before hitting both Kolten Wong and Victor Caratini with two-strike pitches to load the bases for Jace Peterson. Rogers fell behind 3-1 before Peterson lined a ball to right center that hit off the angled wall at American Family Field and got by Padres center fielder Trent Grisham, clearing the bases. The Brewers’ odds of winning increased by 61% with that single swing, a value the Brewers have only matched three times in the last two seasons.

Peterson went on to score the walk-off run on Andrew McCutchen’s single, and the Brewers plated four runs in the bottom of the ninth without recording an out.