For MLB, it's the Season to Negotiate

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Photo by Kirsten Shmitt, courtesy Milwaukee Brewers

A winter where many MLB teams will look to tighten their belts is going to lead to another wave of interesting decisions in the month ahead.

Teams have until December 2 to make a decision on their arbitration-eligible players, players with between two-plus and six years of major league service time. Teams can and often will negotiate with those players between now and that deadline, but if they’re not under contract by that date their teams either have to offer them arbitration or “non-tender” them, making them free agents. The Brewers have 11 such players.

The arbitration process can be a challenge to manage in normal years, but this is hardly a normal year. The framework of the system makes it impossible for teams to suggest more than a nominal pay cut for players who are underperforming, and there has long been a gap between teams, players and arbiters on what statistics are relevant to consider when setting a player’s salary. That challenge is exacerbated this year by a pair of factors:

First, players heading into the process this winter have a small sample of performance from 2020’s 60-game season. It’s unclear how the process will consider those performances, which is why Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors has three different potential salary projections for each eligible player.

Second, arbitration projections are unlikely to consider the economic state of the game as a whole. With a slowly developing free agent market and reduced spending expected, many teams are likely to limit their early spending and hunt for bargains later. The more they save money by non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, the larger the free agent pool becomes.

Given those factors, teams are expected to non-tender a record number of players this winter. On the pitching side specifically, the list of four eligible Brewers includes a couple of players whose future might be impacted by this unusual winter. They’re listed below in order of projected salary, from low to high:

Alex Claudio, $2-2.3 million

A year after pitching in 83 games for the Brewers as a lefty specialist, there were some questions about how Claudio would fit into the mix under MLB’s new rule requiring relievers to face a minimum of three batters. Claudio was still effective under that new system, however, and pitched in a third of the Brewers’ games in 2020.

It’s unclear how or if that rule will be adjusted for 2021, and where that would leave Claudio on the bullpen’s pecking order. In a normal offseason the Brewers would likely have a tough decision to make here, but this winter’s expected trends make it more likely they could let Claudio go and either re-sign him for less later on or attempt to replace him inexpensively.

Brandon Woodruff, $2.3-4.5 million

Woodruff is just under three years of MLB service time and is eligible for arbitration for the first time as a “Super Two” player, a group of players with enough service time to be eligible for arbitration four times instead of the usual three. As a first-time eligible player Woodruff’s projected salary is still relatively low, especially for a pitcher who has performed as he has over the last two seasons. Woodruff led all of baseball with 13 regular season starts in 2020 and posted a 3.05 ERA across 73 2/3 innings.

It’s almost unthinkable that the Brewers would consider parting ways with a relatively young and very effective pitcher who they could keep under team control for four more seasons. Non-tendering a pitcher like Woodruff would be a clear sign that baseball’s economic model is broken instead of merely troubled.

Corey Knebel, $5.125 million

Knebel’s situation is an example of inflexibility in the arbitration process: He signed for $5.125 million to avoid arbitration in 2019 before missing the entire season following elbow surgery. The Brewers gave him another year at that same amount in 2020 but his comeback went poorly, as he allowed 23 baserunners and four home runs in 13 1/3 innings. If the Brewers offer him arbitration, he’s expected to receive that same salary again as he continues to work to right the ship on his career.

It’s a near certainty that the Brewers will not offer Knebel arbitration, given his performance and the game’s economic climate. He may, however, be a solid candidate to either negotiate a lesser deal to remain with the team or return later for an opportunity to rebuild his value. He would seem to be a solid candidate to work with the Brewers’ “pitch lab” to get back on track, but that’s only if he stays in the organization.

Josh Hader, $4.5-6.8 million

Entering last winter Hader found himself as baseball’s last “Super Two” player, coming into the winter with exactly the amount of service time required to remain above the cutoff. As such, instead of earning slightly more than the $687,600 he made in 2019, he was scheduled to receive $4.1 million in 2020 (although he asked for more and lost his arbitration hearing). Nonetheless, it was a hefty raise for the two-time National League Reliever of the Year.

In 2020 Hader led the National League in saves for the first time. He was slightly more vulnerable than he’s been in past years but continues to be one of the game’s most dominant relievers. The Brewers will likely face questions this winter about his possible trade value, but almost certainly won’t let him walk for nothing.

To read more Brewers On Deck Circle columns by Kyle Lobner, click here.