Image via Brewers.com
The Brewers have successfully turned things around following a long May cold streak, and it’s happened at least in part due to another long-awaited turnaround.
When the calendar turned from April to May it was a welcome development for Avisail Garcia, who had a forgettable first month of the season. From April 19-30 Garcia played in ten games and went 2-for-30 with 16 strikeouts and no extra base hits. Near the end of that span his batting average dipped to .190 and his slugging bottomed out at .329.
In a small sample like April it’s possible for bad luck to noticeably swing the numbers, but the analytics suggest that’s not what happened here. Baseball Savant uses MLB Statcast data to produce a statistic called “Expected wOBA” or “xwOBA,” an attempt to estimate a player’s expected value based on the exit velocity and launch angles of their batted balls. In their line chart it’s pretty easy to spot where Garcia’s performance bottomed out:
Garcia’s slump was all the more damaging to the Brewers due to its timing: A rash of early injuries meant that Garcia batted either third or fourth in the lineup through the duration of this cold stretch, where he struggled to put the ball in play and did not hit for power when he did. Around the time Christian Yelich returned to the Brewers’ lineup in early May, however, Garcia moved back a couple of spots and his performance rebounded.
Garcia had 14 hits in his first 27 at bats in May and on May 8 against the Marlins he connected for a home run, his first in over 60 plate appearances. That kicked off a stretch where he homered eight times in his next 21 games, including a 464-foot blast on Thursday. Over a span of 29 games from May 1 through June 4 Garcia batted .292 with a .352 on-base percentage and .583 slugging, hitting the aforementioned eight home runs and driving in 22. He’s making significantly more contact, striking out just 24 times in those 105 plate appearances, and he’s hitting the ball for power when he connects. The Brewers have won 11 of the last 13 games when he’s in the lineup.
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Nearly a decade ago Garcia came to the majors with extremely high expectations: He was promoted to the majors for the first time as a 21-year-old and quickly nicknamed “Mini Miggy” after Tigers’ teammate and future Hall of Fame infielder Miguel Cabrera. Through his first five seasons in the majors, however, Garcia rated out as a below-average hitter who did not walk often and struggled to tap into his prodigious power. He’s spent 10 seasons in the majors but his career highlights come almost exclusively from two of them, his 2017 All Star campaign with the White Sox and 2019, his lone season with the Rays. In the former season he also had a pretty remarkable hot streak, batting .434 with a .483 on-base and .585 slugging in 28 games from August 19 through September 16.
A Lot on the Line
Garcia’s inputs, however, have always suggested that he could be a breakout candidate. Baseball Savant’s data shows that his maximum exit velocity has ranked in the top 7% of all major leaguers in each of the last six seasons, the entirety of the sport’s “Statcast Era.” This season they have him at the 78th percentile or better in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, hard hit percentage, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging, barrel percentage and sprint speed. Over the last month he’s been extremely successful at turning those strengths into solid results.
There’s also a lot on the line for Garcia personally this season: As Will Sammon of The Athletic recently noted, Garcia’s two-year contract contains a $12 million club option for 2022 that becomes a mutual option if he comes to the plate 550 times this season, a number he’s on pace to reach. A month ago that option seemed unlikely to be exercised given Garcia’s struggles at the plate across two partial seasons with the Brewers, but that math has likely shifted given his recent performance. Furthermore, the value of the buyout on that option escalates based on Garcia’s playing time (per Cot’s Contracts).
Avisail Garcia’s performance is a big part of the reason the Brewers have gained four games on the field in the NL Central in recent weeks and climbed into a tie for first place. If he continues to perform at this level, he might also be a big part of the reason they stay in contention.
