How Far Can Burnes and Berríos Go (Without Risking Injury)?

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On Saturday night Brewers and Twins fans were treated to a pair of fantastic pitching performances, but they may also have gotten a preview of a storyline that will last all season.

For two-thirds of the game Corbin Burnes and Minnesota starter José Berríos were all but untouchable. Combined through six innings neither had allowed a hit or a walk, and 23 of the 38 batters they faced struck out. Only a pair of hit batsmen stood between the two pitchers and perfect game bids.

Their flirtations with history, however, ended early: The Brewers lifted Burnes in the top of the seventh immediately after he gave up a solo home run to outfielder Byron Buxton, the first hit of the game. The Twins didn’t even wait that long with Berríos: They opted not to send him back out for the bottom of the inning, just the third time in that franchise’s long history they had removed a pitcher who had worked six or more innings without allowing a hit. Burnes and Berríos combined to throw just 171 pitches in the game.

In the end, Craig Counsell and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli were faced with a similar conundrum and made the same decision: Their best chance to win that individual game likely involved riding a hot starting pitcher, but they took the long view and opted not to overextend their young arms with a long season ahead.

In both cases, this almost certainly isn’t the last time the manager will have to choose between trying to win in the short term and prioritizing a pitcher’s long-term health and wellbeing. The Twins and Brewers almost certainly have better chances of success in 2021 if they each get 30 starts and 180 innings from Burnes and Berríos, but the two combined to pitch just over 120 in the abbreviated 2020 season. All season long they’re likely to face questions about how far these pitchers can go without overextending themselves and risking injury.

This challenge is not new, of course: The 2003 Cubs sparked a long conversation on this topic when they rode Kerry Wood and Mark Prior to a long postseason run, but neither pitcher was the same after. Later, the 2012 Nationals tipped the scales in the other direction when they shut down young ace Stephen Strasburg in September instead of risking overworking him in a pennant race.

Shortening Careers?

In 2021 this issue is likely to be front and center, however, as nearly every starting pitcher in the sport is coming back from what amounts to a lost season. The teams that are willing to push the envelope when it comes to extending their top pitchers will almost certainly have a competitive advantage, as they’ll still be using their elite arms while other teams are testing their depth and taxing their bullpens. They’ll be doing so at a risk, however, as injuries from overuse could linger into future seasons and shorten some of their top talents’ careers.

As is the case in nearly every aspect of the game, technology will likely play a role in some of these decisions. Compared to even five years ago teams are significantly more capable of quickly detecting a dip in velocity, change in mechanics or reduction in pitch spin that might serve as a red flag for a pitcher that is stretching their limits. In some cases, however, by the time a pitcher shows symptoms of trouble it may already be too late. These indications are also only valuable if teams are willing to follow them, but the temptation to allow tiring pitchers to continue to work will be strong for teams chasing a pennant.

These decisions are likely to continue on both a game-by-game and month-by-month level, as teams have to make decisions on how to balance “going for it” and protecting their long-term health. The teams that err on the side of caution will be doing the right thing for their players’ future, but that’s not going to shield them from criticism if it costs them games in the standings.