You could be forgiven if you missed it, but it’s been a big weekend for Keon Broxton.
Broxton only started two games in the Arizona series but reached base eight times (in eight consecutive plate appearances), homered, doubled and stole two bases. His combination of speed, power and the ability to play center field really showed through, and he made a bit of history in the process.
You see, five of Broxton’s six hits this weekend all came on Saturday, making him the first Brewer to record a five-hit game this season and only the seventh to do it in the 2010’s (it had been more than two full years since Elian Herrera became the last Brewer to do so on July 13, 2014). Broxton’s feat was perhaps still more impressive because he did it out of the seventh spot in the lineup.
The typical #7 hitter rarely gets five plate appearances, much less five hits. Broxton, Herrera, Kevin Seitzer and Scott Fletcher are the only four Brewers who have ever had five hits in a game while batting seventh or later, with the latter two doing it in the same 22-2 win over the Blue Jays in 1992. Broxton was also only the second Brewer with five hits and a stolen base in the same game in the Miller Park era (Mike Cameron did it in 2008).
Unfortunately, I’m concerned that Broxton’s recent hot streak won’t change many fans’ opinions of him, for a couple of reasons: First of all, the majority of his weekend highlights came in a Saturday night game on the west coast, which most fans probably didn’t see.
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Second, however, is the fact that many fans likely made up their minds on Broxton when he batted .125 with a .253 on-base percentage and a paltry .188 slugging during his first couple of stints with the team. The fact that he’s hit .387/.487/.742 since getting called back up in late July doesn’t fit with that narrative and will likely escape their notice.
There’s a cognitive fallacy that comes into play here, and has had a significant impact on both the perception and careers of many recent Brewers. It goes something like this:
- A player who opens a season or career on a hot streak will still be seen as hot and/or effective for an extended period of time after the streak is over. They’ll get more playing time and any subsequent cold streak will, at worst, be viewed in context with their overall performance. At best, it’ll simply be glanced over as fans and pundits alike continue to remember their hot start. Jean Segura’s 2013 All Star season is a perfect example of this: He continued to play and bat in the upper third of the lineup nearly every day down the stretch that season despite hitting just .249/.285/.315 in his final 68 games.
- A player who opens a season on a cold streak will see the memory of that cold streak linger in the eyes of the fans and commentators. Even their later successes will be portrayed in light of their struggles, with comments like, “and with three hits today, Rickie Weeks is almost back to .200 for the season.” Even if they do get hot or their performance rebounds, they’ll remain mired in poor context.
When we get stuck in the latter perception, we do everyone involved a disservice. Keon Broxton has been given a new opportunity to receive recent MLB playing time recently and has shown flashes of true potential value in that role. Hopefully he keeps getting opportunities, and everyone involved can look past his early struggles if he’s able to provide consistent results.
