Lorenzo Cain: Then and Now

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Courtesy of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Lorenzo Cain

While the Brewers spend the MLB season’s final month trying to climb back into postseason contention, that’s not the only thing they need to accomplish between now and October. They also have just a few weeks left to evaluate many of their key players in game situations, and one of the players they’ll likely be watching closely is Lorenzo Cain.

2019 is the second of five years on Cain’s $80-million contract, but it’s been a significant step back from his MVP-caliber first season. Cain’s batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have each fallen 50 points or more from his big Brewers return a year ago. Two of the major calculations of player value disagree significantly on his value, but they both agree it’s down significantly: Baseball Reference has him at 1.8 Wins Above Replacement, down from 6.9, and FanGraphs has him at 0.9, down from 5.7.

As the Brewers front office works to determine what to expect from Cain going forward they might find some good news in the analytics. David Adler of MLB.com recently identified Cain as the unluckiest player in all of baseball when it comes to making outs on hard hit balls, noting that over 100 of the (at the time) 165 balls Cain had hit hard were turned into outs. He batted .530 in those events last season, and he’s a glaring outlier in this field across MLB in 2019. Adler notes that simply getting league average production in that situation would give Cain 25 extra hits this season and a batting average around .300.

Meanwhile, some of Cain’s offensive struggles have been overshadowed by his continued stellar defense. He’s made countless highlight reel plays in 2019 and has been a Gold Glove candidate since the first day of the season, when he single handedly saved a win with a home run robbing catch in the ninth inning. The defensive metrics suggest that Cain has been one of, if not the most valuable center fielders in the game on defense, ranking right alongside defensive standouts like Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays.

Behind the scenes, Cain also provides some level of value in a less tangible way. He commands a significant amount of respect as a veteran in the clubhouse and has been credited with making positive contributions as a leader. These contributions are impossible to quantify, of course, and as such they won’t show up on any of his stat pages, but it’s likely they’d be missed if Cain were gone or his role diminished.

Getting maximum value out of Cain going forward may also require some effort to alter the management of his health. Back in August Cain told Robert Murray of The Athletic that growing up he modeled his game after longtime Twins outfielder Torii Hunter, someone who “went out there and played every day through pain.” That philosophy has been readily apparent in 2019 as Cain has had several moments where he struggled to get back to his feet after a tough defensive play but remained in the contest at less than 100%. It seems unlikely that Cain will ever ask for time off, but physically he would almost certainly benefit from a little more rest and an effort to ensure he’s not hampered by nagging woes.

When the Brewers signed Cain to his five-year deal they almost certainly had to expect him to decline somewhat over the course of his time in Milwaukee. He was about to turn 32 when he signed the contract and the current era of baseball hasn’t been kind to older players: As of Monday morning there are only three outfielders age 34 or older that are qualified for the batting title, including Cain’s teammate Ryan Braun; 2019 will be Cain’s age 34 season.

Lorenzo Cain remains under contract for three more seasons, and he’ll almost certainly play a prominent role for the Brewers both on and off the field for much of that time. His challenging season, however, means the organization will have to make a difficult evaluation of his long-term projections while developing their plan for 2020.