Image via Twitter / Brewers
The Brewers’ fortunes have shifted mightily in the last few weeks, and it will be interesting to see how this impacts their internal and external conversations about the trade deadline.
Milwaukee rebounded from an underwhelming road trip to Colorado and Arizona with a key home sweep of the Rockies and now find themselves as winners of five consecutive games.
The streak also came at an extremely opportune time: While the Brewers were taking care of business with Colorado the Cubs lost the final three of their four-game set with the Dodgers, creating three games of separation between the two teams atop the NL Central. The Cardinals also continue to freefall: They were atop the division by 3 ½ games on May 19 but have gone just 12-23 since.
These recent stretches are clearly reflected in the Brewers’ postseason odds: According to FanGraphs their chances of making the postseason have gone from 52.6% on June 18 to 75.5% just ten days later. At that same low point on June 18, they had a 45.5% shot at winning the division, but that’s now up over 72%.
We don’t know and likely will never know, of course, how these figures compare to the Brewers’ internal projections. However, over the span of a weekend the Brewers put some significant distance between themselves and their top rivals, and that cushion may color conversations about their needs in the months ahead.
Buyer’s Market
We’re still over a month away from the July 30 trade deadline, but it does appear likely to be a buyer’s market. As of Sunday night FanGraphs listed 14 teams as having playoff chances below 10%. That group includes teams that were expected to struggle like the Orioles, Rangers and Pirates but also features a significant number of teams that seemed to be trying to win this year: The Twins and Angels both came into the season seeming likely to compete, for example, and the Cardinals, Phillies and Nationals all had reason to believe they could be in that conversation as well. Their surprising down years could create a large group of potential sellers.
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Past experience also suggests that the Brewers will prioritize adding value over having a clear positional fit for the player they’re acquiring, which increases their field of plausible options. At times this has allowed them to capitalize on an available player who wasn’t necessarily a clear fit on their roster, as they did when they acquired Mike Moustakas from the Royals in 2018 despite already having Travis Shaw at third base. For some organizations it would be all but unthinkable to unseat a performing shortstop like Willy Adames by trading for Trevor Story, for example, but for the Brewers it’s possible to make a case for it. Nick Groke and Will Sammon of The Athletic just did so last week.
While the Brewers’ minor league talent pool isn’t as highly-regarded as it once was (MLB.com ranked them 28th out of 30 organizations back in March), they potentially do have pieces available to use to make a trade work for a couple of reasons:
- They still have some top-flight pieces and their high picks in recent drafts have performed well. Infielder Brice Turang, pitcher Ethan Small and outfielder Garrett Mitchell have all impressed in their early pro careers and could be the centerpiece of the right deal.
- Several one-time top prospects who fell out of favor for one reason or another have had nice starts to the 2021 season, including infielder/outfielder Korry Howell, outfielder Joe Gray Jr. and catcher Payton Henry.
While there should be plenty of teams looking to sell this July and the Brewers have the pieces necessary to go shopping, there are two factors that may cause teams to pause before making a deal. First, the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season means teams simply do not have extended scouting reports on many potential targets. Trading high value for a minor leaguer right now means making a significant investment in a player who has played less than two months of professional baseball in the last year and a half.
Additionally, scouting minor league pitchers right now comes with another wrinkle: Baseball’s crackdown on foreign substances at the MLB level has also trickled down to the minors, where pitchers recently started being checked for “sticky stuff.” Scouts already had the unenviable task of trying to identify potential trade targets based on a small sample size, but now they’ll have the added challenge of trying to identify if a sudden change in a player’s performance is simply random variation or a sign that they’ve stopped using something.
All these factors could lead to a lot of interesting conversations in the month ahead. The Brewers almost certainly won’t tip their hand until or unless a deal is done, but recent history suggests they won’t let the deadline pass quietly and the market suggests they should have plenty of options.
