MLB Player Development Returns to Normal

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Image via Biloxi Shuckers

For the first time in 610 days, on Tuesday the stars of tomorrow will return to the field for official minor league games.

For nearly two years MLB teams have been forced to take a piecemeal approach to player development across their organizations: With affiliated minor league seasons cancelled in 2020, teams have sent players to independent leagues, winter ball and instructional league camps and conducted a lot of Zoom meetings in an effort to keep their top prospects on pace to play in the majors someday. 

Player development takes a step towards normalcy this week, and so does player evaluation. The lack of official minor league games for the last year has created an unprecedented challenge for the people inside the game and in the media tasked with assigning values to prospects. Nonetheless, most of the game’s most respected public prospect writers have taken on the challenge of ranking the Brewers’ top minor leaguers: Baseball America released their list of the top 30 Brewers prospects in December, with Keith Law of The Athletic unveiling his top 20 in February and MLB Pipeline adding their input in March (a fourth list, from Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, has yet to be published).

There are 18 players who appeared on all three of the aforementioned lists. Here are the top five (by average ranking), and their likely destinations this week:

Garrett Mitchell, OF: Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (High-A)

The #1 prospect on Law and MLB Pipeline’s lists and #2 on Baseball America’s, Mitchell will make his long-awaited professional debut this week in the “High-A Central League,” formerly known as the Midwest League. While Mitchell hasn’t played in an official regular season game at any level, fans have gotten to see him a bit: He was one of the most-discussed players in the Brewers’ major league camp this spring, where he played in 22 games and batted .367 with .567 slugging.

The Brewers are challenging Mitchell in his first professional season by skipping the Low-A level and moving him directly to Appleton. He is an experienced hitter, however, having played three seasons of college baseball at UCLA, and has clearly demonstrated high upside.

Brice Turang, SS/2B, Biloxi Shuckers (AA)

While Mitchell was the top prospect on two of the three major lists, Turang snagged the top spot in the other one (Baseball America) and is the Brewers’ other representative on some of this spring’s list of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball. The lost 2020 season impacted what had been a meteoric rise through the organization for Turang, who reached the High-A level as a 19-year-old in 2019.

Turang is somewhat slight of stature but showed an advanced ability to hit the ball all over the field in his first full professional season in 2019. He also got into 25 Cactus League games this spring and has seen time at both middle infield positions. Turang has never played above A-ball, but the Brewers’ rash of infielder injuries this spring and their decision to trade Orlando Arcia might have made it more likely he will see time at the MLB level this season and creates the possibility that he’ll open 2021 up a level in AAA.

Hedbert Perez, OF, not assigned

While Garrett Mitchell was the most oft-discussed prospect in Brewers camp this spring, a much younger player might have been the second: Perez was just 17 years old when he got into a few MLB games this spring and acquitted himself nicely at the plate and in the field. 

Perez signed as a top international prospect in July of 2019 and has yet to appear in a regular season professional game at any level. Some fans will likely be disappointed if Perez is not assigned to a full-season club, but the Brewers appear comfortable to keep him at their complex in Arizona and wait for rookie ball to start later this summer.

As the Brewers’ top international prospect and one of three in their top ten, Perez will be challenged to overcome a longstanding reality: The Brewers have been active on the international market over the years and have had plenty of those signees appear on top prospect lists, but in the last decade only one international signee who started his career at the Brewers’ Dominican academy has reached the majors with Milwaukee (Orlando Arcia).

Antoine Kelly, LHP, not assigned

While reports about players were at best sporadic during 2020’s piecemeal workouts and instructional league, one player whose name routinely came up was Antoine Kelly. He’ll need to wait, however, to give fans a taste of his progress.

Kelly was a second-round pick in 2019 and reached full-season baseball for just one game that season. By all accounts he made good use of his 2020 season and looked good in fall camp, but in November he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and he’s expected to miss at least the early portion of the minor league season. For other pitchers the results of that surgery have been mixed at best. 

Ethan Small, LHP, Biloxi (AA) or Nashville Sounds (AAA)

2020 should have been a big season for Small, the Brewers’ first pick in the 2019 draft. Small was dominant in short outings in rookie ball and at Low-A late in the 2019 season but his workload was severely limited as he had already thrown 107 innings during the college season for Mississippi State. Small struck out 36 and walked just four in his first 21 professional innings.

Small and fellow lefty Aaron Ashby both made some waves this spring with effective work in Brewers Cactus League games and, as was the case with Turang above, the Brewers’ injury struggles may have accelerated their possible path to the majors. Small and Ashby have both been starting games for the Brewers’ AA team this spring but could see themselves needed in AAA either immediately or soon as the organization continues to churn through arms.

The rest of the top 10, by average ranking between the three lists:

6. Mario Feliciano, C, AA/AAA

7. Aaron Ashby, LHP, AA/AAA

8. Eduardo Garcia, SS, not assigned

9. Freddy Zamora, SS, Low-A

10. Jeferson Quero, C, not assigned