Photo by ronniechua/Getty Images
Baseball stadium
The start of the MLB offseason is imminent and, if nothing else, it’s going to be an unusual one.
As of Monday morning, there are 150 days until Opening Day and about 110 until pitchers and catchers are expected to report to spring training, but the important dates on the MLB calendar between now and then are all written in pencil: Teams’ ability to prepare for (or play) the 2022 season depends on the owners and players’ ability to come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement, and negotiations are not very far along. Last week the Associated Press reported that a work stoppage is “almost certain” to begin on Dec. 2, the day after the current agreement expires. The two sides seem to be very far apart on economic issues and have developed a high level of ill will towards each other over the last few seasons.
It’s possible, of course, that a new deal could come together quickly. A brief offseason work stoppage likely wouldn’t damage the sport all that much, provided the two sides can work something out in time to open the season on time next April. Even in that somewhat optimistic scenario, however, teams like the Brewers that have a lot of work to do this offseason won’t have much time to do it. Dec. 2 is just more than a month away and after that it’s unclear when or if teams will be able to make moves again, or the economic structure they’ll be working under.
Stay on top of the news of the day
Subscribe to our free, daily e-newsletter to get Milwaukee's latest local news, restaurants, music, arts and entertainment and events delivered right to your inbox every weekday, plus a bonus Week in Review email on Saturdays.
At the Bargaining Table
One of the topics that may be discussed in a new collective bargaining agreement, for example, is the sport’s longstanding arbitration system and the way players accumulate service time to qualify for it. As things stand right now the Brewers have 14 players with at least three but less than six years of MLB service time, meaning they qualify for arbitration for the 2022 season. The list includes, among others, stars like Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. Under the sport’s current framework all three of those players would be under team control through the 2024 season. Modifications to the process, however, could change that timetable.
Even under normal circumstances those players are at the point in their careers where many teams would be looking to sign them to long-term contracts to establish some cost certainty and potentially extend the window before they become free agents. This year, provided existing contracts are grandfathered in to a new CBA (likely), having that certainty could be even more valuable.
Furthermore, the aforementioned list of 14 arbitration-eligible players includes a handful the Brewers will likely move on from this winter. It wouldn’t be surprising if many teams make their decisions to tender or non-tender contracts to players early this winter, to establish a bit of roster flexibility and get players that aren’t in their plans off the books before heading into what could be a prolonged transaction freeze.
Work Stoppage?
It’s also unclear how this winter’s CBA negotiations and possible work stoppage will impact what could have been an extremely busy free agent market. Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, Blue Jays infielder Marcus Semien, Giants infielder Kris Bryant and shortstops Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Corey Seager all are due to hit the market this winter, as are an array of talented pitchers. A likely transaction freeze will almost certainly impact their contract negotiation processes, shortening the window to figure something out and leaving some teams uncertain of their budgets for the year ahead.
In the end, the safest assumption is probably that the players and the owners will figure something out in time to avoid impacting the 2022 MLB season. Despite their differences and the animosity between the two sides, both groups have to recognize the danger it would pose to the health of the sport if they let a work stoppage bleed over into next season. The process of getting to an agreement might not be pretty, however, and that leaves teams with a short window to make moves before they might not be able to for a while.
