The Bets Begin Despite Uncertainty Over the MLB Season

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PHOTO CREDIT: KIRSTEN SCHMITT/BREWERS

As the long-delayed start of the 2020 MLB season lurks just around the corner we’re constantly reminded that, even on the field, this is no normal season.

The latest reminder came late last week from BetOnline, which sent out a series of proposition bets for the 2020 MLB season. This isn’t unusual, but the numbers are: This year, for example, prospective bettors are being asked to choose whether several players will reach or exceed a total of eight home runs.

I’ve attempted to predict the outcomes of proposition bets as a preview for the upcoming season each of the last two years and 2019 was a rousing success, as I went 12-6 overall and 8-1 on predictions involving Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar and Yasmani Grandal. This year BetOnline has 17 potential bets involving nine players to consider, and I’ll try to repeat that level of success despite a shorter season where anything could happen.

Christian Yelich: .315 batting average, 15.5 home runs, 38.5 RBI, nine stolen bases

Attempting to make predictions for the 2020 season requires factoring in a lot of unusual or unprecedented variables. For the purpose of this exercise we’re assuming the full 60-game schedule will be played, so that removes one.

Starting at the top of the list: Yelich has batted .327 over two seasons as a Brewer, so his recent history alone suggests he should be projected to clear .315. In addition, he should benefit from an abbreviated summer camp and pitchers having limited opportunity to get ready in game situations before facing him in the early weeks, and a compressed schedule should mean teams will have to turn to weaker options more often to face him. So that’s a clear choice for over.

The counting statistics require some translation: 15.5 home runs, 38.5 RBI and nine stolen bases are roughly the pace equivalent of 42, 104 and 24, respectively, and Yelich had 44, 97 and 30 in 2019. I’ll take the over on homers for some of the reasons listed above, as a compressed schedule should mean teams’ best pitchers are available less often and could give Yelich a chance to feast on weaker opponents. I’ll take the under on RBI, as Yelich’s frequent role in the second spot in the batting order diminishes his opportunities to drive in multiple runners. Finally, I’ll take the over on steals, as Yelich has demonstrated the ability to steal in bunches when he sees the opportunity.

Lorenzo Cain: 4.5 home runs

Home runs are a weird choice for a single stat to predict for Cain, whose primary source of value has never been his power. 4.5 is the pace equivalent of about 12 over a 162-game season, and he’s averaged 12.3 over the past three years. Cain turned 34 in April and a compressed schedule may limit his ability to be at his best every day through this sprint of a season, but a few months off should also have given his nagging injuries an opportunity to heal. I’ll take the over and guess that even if he struggles, he’ll get five opportunities to “lean back” on a pitch.

Ryan Braun: Eight home runs, 30.5 RBI

This is a pace equivalent of 21.5 home runs and 82 RBI for Braun. He’s been below that mark in two of the last three seasons for homers and all three for RBI, making it a challenge to project he’ll do much better after turning 36 years old. In addition, the Brewers will likely be careful with Braun’s playing time (although having the DH available should help him), so he’s an unlikely candidate to rack up a lot of opportunities. I’ll take both unders.

Keston Hiura: .302 batting average, 12.5 home runs, 34.5 RBI

Hiura batted .303 in 314 at bats in 2019 despite striking out 107 times, meaning he batted an other-worldly .402 on balls in play (As a team the Brewers hit .296). Hiura’s ability to hit to all fields will always give him a bit of an advantage as it’s harder for teams to effectively shift against him, but it’s unlikely he continues to be a .300 hitter unless he’s able to dramatically cut down on strikeouts. I’ll take the under on .302.

Hiura’s power is an interesting question. 12.5 home runs are the pace equivalent of 34 in a full season and Hiura hit 38 between MLB and AAA in 2019 despite missing significant time. Before 2019, however, Hiura’s career high for homers was 13, and there’s an ongoing question of how much of his power surge was the result of a development in his game and how much was related to the homer-friendly MLB baseball. The latter may or may not stay the same for 2020, so I’ll take another under here.

Then there’s the question of RBI, where 34.5 is roughly the pace for 93 in a full season. RBI is extremely context dependent and it’s hard to tell what Hiura’s context will be this season. He batted fourth a lot in 2019 but that was on a roster that included Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal, among others. I’ll take a third under based on the uncertainty here, but it’s worth noting that Hiura could have an incredibly valuable season while coming up short of all three of these numbers.

Justin Smoak: 9.5 home runs, 27.5 RBI

As was the case with Jesus Aguilar a year ago, predicting Smoak’s performance requires an answer to two questions: How well will he perform, and how often will he play? The DH may help keep Smoak’s bat in the lineup a little more often, but reaching 10 home runs (the pace equivalent of 27) likely requires him to be in the lineup a lot and that’s hardly a guarantee given the Brewers’ crowded roster. I’ll take the under on both numbers.

Omar Narvaez: 7.5 home runs

The “how often will he play?” question also applies here as Narvaez will have to contend with questions related to both his ability to hold up to the grind of a compressed season and his ability to play defense well enough to keep the Brewers from expanding Manny Pina’s role.

The DH could help Narvaez a lot, however, giving the Brewers an opportunity to keep his bat in the lineup against right-handed pitching (where he’s a career .287 hitter with .358 on-base and .431 slugging) even when he’s not behind the plate. I think he’ll play enough to go deep eight times, so I’ll take the over.

Brandon Woodruff: 4.5 wins, 64.5 strikeouts

These are the full season pace equivalent of 12 wins and 174 strikeouts, respectively. When healthy (and to date there’s been no indication he’s not) Woodruff is the pitcher the Brewers are most likely to allow to work deep into games and qualify for wins. He racked up eleven to lead the team despite being limited to 22 starts in 2019. He also struck out 143 opposing batters in 121 2/3 innings to clear the strikeout pace listed above. If he makes 12 starts (every fifth day for 60 games) he should clear these numbers, so I’ll take the over on both.

Brett Anderson: Four wins

While the Brewers have demonstrated a willingness to let Woodruff pitch deep into games, they have rarely given that privilege to anyone else in recent years. Anderson seems like an unlikely candidate to break that trend, and it’s far from a given that he’ll spend the full season in the rotation either. I’ll take the under.

Josh Hader: 12.5 saves

Hader racked up 37 saves in 2019, an impressive total for a pitcher the Brewers have been relatively careful not to overwork. Hader is unavailable more often than the traditional closer because of the Brewers’ tendency to have him work multiple innings, which he did 23 times in 61 appearances in 2019.

Hader could be a major factor if the Brewers are successful in 2020, but the compressed schedule will limit his availability a bit if the organization continues to give him days off after pitching multiple innings. As such, it seems like a stretch to predict he’ll get into enough games to convert 13 saves (the equivalent of 35 over a 162-game season). I’ll take the under, to complete a slate of seven overs and 10 unders.

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