Bet on the 2019 Brewers

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Photo Credit: Ian D'Andrea, Flickr

With the stateside portion of the 2019 MLB season scheduled to get underway this week, we’re in the heat of prediction season. On March 19, BetOnline sent out a list of 18 Brewers-related proposition bets for the 2019 season that provide a good jumping off point for discussing the year ahead. Last year there were 20 lines to consider, and I guessed right on exactly 10 of them.

Christian Yelich: .300 batting average; 26.5 home runs; 92.5 runs batted in.

How much of a difference does one year make? At this point in 2018 Yelich’s over/unders were .290, 19.5 home runs and 84.5 RBI, and he cruised past all three en route to the National League MVP award. If there was such an award, Yelich might have claimed the Cactus League MVP this spring as well. He led all Brewers with 18 hits in the desert, including five doubles and four home runs, and batted .474 with a .487 on-base percentage and .921 slugging. He appears poised for a hot start to the regular season in his second year as a Brewer. With that said, Yelich has some room to take a significant step back from his 2018 career year and still clear all of these bars. I’ll take all three overs.

Lorenzo Cain: .290 batting average; 14.5 home runs; 26.5 stolen bases.

Cain’s average and home run lines are down only slightly from 2018, when they were set at .295 and 15.5. My prediction that Cain’s offensive game would diminish with age didn’t match with reality in 2018, but at some point it has to be true. 2019 is Cain’s age 33 season, and only three players that old or older qualified for the batting title and hit above .290 in 2018: Braves outfielder Nick Markakis, Cubs utilityman Ben Zobrist and Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel.

Meanwhile, Cain has never hit for big power numbers and his improved plate discipline in 2018 came with a small setback in homers, as he went deep just ten times. He’s only hit 15 home runs twice in nine MLB seasons. The stolen bases might be the most interesting possibility. Cain has repeatedly shown the ability to run relatively often and pick his spots well, going 126-for-151 in steal attempts over the last five seasons. He was able to run 37 times out of the leadoff spot for the Brewers in 2018 and, barring injury, there’s really no reason to expect that number to drop in 2019. So I’ll take the under on average and home runs and the over on steals.

Jesus Aguilar: 24.5 home runs; 87.5 runs batted in.

Aguilar’s breakout season in 2018 was largely fueled by a hot start, as his slugging percentage fell to just .426 after July 20. This season he’ll be challenged to prove that his gaudy numbers from 2019 are the new norm and not just a side effect of an extended hot streak. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ extensive organizational depth will probably cost Aguilar a few opportunities at times. Craig Counsell will have plenty of opportunities to sit Aguilar for a day or two to either get his slugger a day off or keep someone else’s hot bat in the lineup. Based on those two factors, I’ll take both unders for Aguilar.

Travis Shaw: 27.5 home runs; 92.5 runs batted in.

Back in November, I noted that Shaw’s 2018 step back in offensive production might have been impacted by luck: Shaw was still routinely hitting the ball hard last season but batted just .242 on balls in play, over 50 points below the MLB average. Even if his luck doesn’t even out, however, Shaw still has several other factors in his favor for 2019. He’s back at third base, a position he frequently gave up to Mike Moustakas down the stretch last season. With a dedicated spot in the field should come an uptick in playing time, following a season where he logged just 498 official at bats. Given those additional opportunities, I’ll take the over on both of these counting stats.

Ryan Braun: .265 batting average; 23.5 home runs; 72.5 runs batted in.

For years now attempting to predict counting stats for Ryan Braun has meant trying to guess on his health status and how often he’ll play as he continues to age. He turned 35 in November, so we’re likely due for another reminder that most players see their contributions slow with time. There is, however, the added factor of Braun’s reported swing change. Braun had extended stretches in 2018 where he was hitting the ball hard but not seeing results, at least in part because of a low launch angle preventing his solid contact from turning into extra base hits. Even if Braun’s adjustment does pay off, however, these lines are all above his 2018 performance and it’s difficult to justify predicting notable improvement for a player in his mid-30’s. I’ll take all three unders.

Yasmani Grandal: 20.5 home runs.

There are so many questions about how Grandal will fit into and/or improve the 2019 Brewers, but BetSports asks just one. Grandal has hit more than 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons and the Brewers, who control his rights for just one season, have little reason to give him any more time off than necessary. This seems like a clear choice for over.

Mike Moustakas: 24.5 home runs; 78.5 runs batted in.

Moustakas hit 28 home runs between his two teams in 2018 and 38 in 2017, so there’s definitely a precedent for him reaching this mark. Assuming he continues to handle playing time at second base, he should get plenty of trips to the plate to justify an over here. The RBI question, however, likely depends on where he ends up in the Brewers lineup when he plays. Despite his prestige and past success, Moustakas’ typically-low OBP (just .307 for his career) make him a candidate to bat sixth or lower relatively frequently. That could impact his opportunities to drive in runs. I’ll take the over on homers and under on RBI.

Jhoulys Chacin: 12.5 wins.

It’s a big year for Chacin for a variety of reasons: He’s getting the ball on Opening Day for the third time in his career and is the only clearly established member of the Brewers rotation at this point. He’s also entering a contract year, so a big season could have major ramifications for his next deal. With that said, the Brewers’ tendency to lean on the bullpen early and often makes it tough to expect anyone to rack up a significant number of pitcher wins. I’ll take the under.

Chase Anderson: 10.5 wins.

This one has probably already been taken off the board with the news that Anderson will not open the season in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. The Brewers will likely need Anderson to start at some point, but his stock has slipped significantly since his Opening Day start in 2017, and he’d need to reestablish himself as a permanent member of the rotation to accumulate enough starts to approach this line. I’ll take the under. All told, that’s eight overs and ten unders for me in eighteen opportunities. Happy prognosticating!