Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr CC)
At first glance, the move doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Brewers came into the winter with a glut of major league outfielders, but they didn’t really address that problem by trading Domingo Santana for another outfielder, former Mariner Ben Gamel (and minor league pitcher Noah Zavalos). A variety of factors below the surface, however, add some context to the decision.
It’s not surprising that the Brewers would opt to sell low on Santana, a player who doesn’t particularly fit what they’re trying to do as an organization. Santana was a major offensive contributor in 2017 but struggled to stay effective as a part-time player early in the season, earning a demotion to the minors after hitting just .249 with a .313 on-base percentage and .354 slugging in his first 62 games.
Despite a rough year in 2018, Santana is still likely to be a better offensive player than Gamel, and he’s a few months younger. Santana, however, gives back a fair amount of that value on defense. FanGraphs estimates he’s been worth about -15 runs in right field over the course of his MLB career. Moving to the American League might improve Santana’s value slightly as he’ll be able to get into the lineup as the designated hitter, although the Mariners also have Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion vying for at bats in the same role.
Gamel, meanwhile, gives the Brewers a player with notable experience in both left and right field and a few appearances in center. He’s not a defensive superstar, but swapping Santana for Gamel allows the Brewers to follow the trend of “positionless baseball” they established in 2018. On any given day in 2019 Milwaukee could have Gamel, Keon Broxton and Hernan Perez available to play any spot in the outfield, adding to the flexibility available for Craig Counsell.
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The Brewers also established a trend this year by heavily utilizing their roster flexibility, routinely shuttling players to AAA Colorado Springs to call up a fresh player. Santana was out of minor league options and could not be utilized that way in 2019, but Gamel has an option remaining and that likely added a bit more to his value for the Brewers.
Santana’s power is arguably the most valuable part of his game and the Brewers maximized its value off the bench down the stretch in 2018, but his tendency to swing and miss made him vulnerable to prolonged slumps and rough days during his time in Milwaukee. In Gamel the Brewers are getting a player who puts the ball in play much more often, striking out just 22% of the time as compared to Santana’s 32%. Gamel’s selectiveness paid off with a .358 on-base percentage in 2018.
If Gamel sticks in Milwaukee, he’ll also be available to the Brewers for an extra year. He has just more than two seasons of MLB service time and won’t be eligible for free agency for the first time until the end of the 2023 season at the earliest. Santana is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and will be a free agent following the 2022 season. Swapping an arbitration-eligible player for a pre-arb player will also save the Brewers around $1.4 million in 2019.
It’s entirely possible that Santana will get an opportunity to play every day in Seattle and thrive in his new environment, joining names like Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis on a list of players who improved their offensive game after leaving Milwaukee. In the short term, however, Santana’s skill set and situation made him a difficult fit in the Brewers’ plans and they found an opportunity to swap him out for someone better positioned to help them.
