PHOTO CREDIT: Evan Casey
The Brewers would have come into the 2020 season with many interesting questions and, at least for now, we’re still waiting for answers. In the meantime, however, two ongoing simulations provide fans with a glimpse into what they might be missing.
Two well-known baseball simulation games are playing out the 2020 schedule on a day-by-day basis, with Strat-O-Matic doing so on their website and Out of the Park (OOTP) providing results for Baseball Reference. Both projections agree on one thing: Through Sunday’s 48th game they each have the Brewers with a 24-24 record, good for third place in the NL Central. They disagree, however, on how the Brewers got there. Here are some of the Brewers’ biggest questions, and the simulators’ answers:
Who steps up on the pitching staff?
The pitchers who started 109 of the Brewers’ 162 games in 2019 are no longer with the organization, leaving the fate of the team with arms who are either new additions or had lesser roles last season. The two simulations have somewhat different opinions about how that will work out.
Both Strat-O-Matic and OOTP have seen a solid start for Brandon Woodruff in his first season as the Brewers’ ace, although he did miss some time in the former simulation. He has a 3.48 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 31 innings for Strat-O-Matic and a 4.17 mark with 60 strikeouts in 54 innings for OOTP.
The problem, however, quickly becomes everyone else. In the Strat-O-Matic game Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom have all accumulated at least eight starts and all have an ERA over 5.00. Lindblom has been the worst among them, allowing 62 baserunners and nine home runs in 39 2/3 innings on his way to a 7.26 ERA. The starters have largely been saved by an outstanding Brewers bullpen, where eight relievers all have an ERA under 3 and Josh Hader has recorded 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.
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Can Omar Narvaez keep up behind the plate?
The Brewers can’t possibly expect new catcher Omar Narvaez to completely replace the production lost when Yasmani Grandal left via free agency, but he’ll be under pressure to make up some of that difference. In the OOTP simulation Narvaez is having a solid offensive start: He’s hitting .283 with a .358 on-base percentage and .391 slugging through 28 appearances. Baseball Reference estimates he’s been worth more than half a win above replacement level over that time, although his value is overshadowed by the career year Yasmani Grandal is having in Chicago (.264/.408/.552 with ten home runs for 1.9 WAR).
Strat-O-Matic is less optimistic on Narvaez’s offensive value. His .173 batting average in their simulation is the lowest among Brewers who play regularly, and he has just one extra base hit in 104 at bats. Neither of these simulations, meanwhile, answer the question of whether the Brewers can improve Narvaez’s reputation as a weak defender.
What does Keston Hiura do for an encore?
Less than two years removed from being a first round pick in the 2017 Draft, Keston Hiura burst onto the scene with a big partial season for the 2019 Brewers. He batted over .300 and collected 44 extra base hits in 314 at bats. Still just 23 years old, 2020 would have been Hiura’s first full major league season and one of the simulations has him experiencing a massive breakout.
In the Strat-O-Matic simulation Hiura connected for 16 home runs in the Brewers’ first 48 games, which is twice as many as any of his teammates. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate in their scenario, ranking among the league leaders in home runs, hits, runs scored, RBI and slugging percentage.
The OOTP version of the season, however, sees Hiura’s career turn a corner in the opposite direction. He’s only started 33 of the Brewers’ 48 contests in their sample and he’s batting .183 with a .238 on-base percentage. While Strat-O-Matic puts him in the MVP chase, OOTP has him well below replacement level.
Of course, all these numbers will be forgotten and replaced with real data once major league players return to the field. In the meantime, however, the simulations raise more questions than answers about what fate may hold for the 2020 Brewers.
