Photo Courtesy of the Brewers
Josh Hader saves the game on Thursday, September 19th, 2019 v the Padres at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Kirsten Schmitt/Brewers
Can a pitcher be finished as an elite bullpen pitcher while also still being his league’s best reliever? It’s a question Brewers fans may have to grapple with this winter.
Josh Hader finished the 2019 season by leaving a bad impression: He blew a save in his final regular season appearance, costing the Brewers an opportunity to tie the Cardinals for first place in the NL Central on the season’s penultimate day. Three days later, he was on the mound again when the wheels came off against the Nationals in the Wild Card Game and allowed three runs that effectively ended Milwaukee’s season.
Despite that rough finish, however, Hader was announced as the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second consecutive season. He’s only the second back-to-back winner of the award, which reflects the votes of a panel of all-time great MLB relievers. Hader wowed that audience by striking out nearly 48% of the batters he faced this year while issuing just 20 walks and posting a 2.62 ERA.
Hader also put up those numbers across an above average workload. Because of the Brewers’ tendency to bring him in to record more than three outs, he was able to work 75 2/3 innings in 2019. That was eight innings more than any other NL closer and 15 more than top competitor Kirby Yates of the Padres.
When it comes to Hader, one glaring figure stands out: He allowed 15 home runs in 2019, six more than he gave up in more innings in 2018. That was tied for the most by an MLB closer (minimum 20 saves) this season. More than one in five fly balls hit against Hader left the park and, by the nature of his role, those homers came at bad times. He allowed a long ball in six of his blown saves and four of the other games where he was the losing pitcher.
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Once he got ahead in the count, Hader was one of the best pitchers in baseball at putting hitters away. He faced 289 batters this season and 142 of those plate appearances ended with more strikes than balls. Opposing batters batted just .101 with a .127 on-base percentage and .217 slugging in that situation. More than two-thirds of those encounters ended with a strikeout.
On the flip side, however, when Hader struggled to gain the early advantage, he was vulnerable. When he fell behind in the count Hader allowed opposing batters to hit .250 with a .458 on-base percentage and .577 slugging. Those numbers got even worse (.250/.563/.643) in a three-ball count, where well more than half of the hitters who faced Hader reached base. Seven batters started an encounter with Hader by seeing three consecutive balls and all of them reached base, going 4-for-4 with three walks and a pair of home runs.
Hader’s struggles when behind in the count were exposed in the Wild Card Game. As Sam Miller noted on a recent episode of the Effectively Wild podcast , Hader threw 30 pitches in the eighth inning of that contest but was ahead in the count for just two of them. He struck out two batters in that inning but also walked one and hit one before allowing the Juan Soto line drive that scored three runs.
As the season went along, opposing batters were also able to take advantage when Hader tried to get ahead with an early fastball. Five of the home runs Hader allowed this season came on the first pitch, including four after the All-Star break. Opposing hitters started swinging early against Hader more often down the stretch and were rewarded: Over a span from July 21 through August 13, all five batters who put a first pitch in play against Hader reached base, including three home runs and a triple.
Despite some concerning trends, however, last week’s awards ceremony was a good reminder that Hader continues to be one of the best relievers in all of baseball. He’ll almost certainly return in a key bullpen role for the Brewers in 2019, and some fans will continue to hold their breath during his appearances, but he remains as an elite dominant force.
