What Will the Brewers Gain through Offseason Trading?

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Photo via Blake Holub - Instagram

Blake Holub

Blake Holub

In the first days of the offseason the Brewers have already found some financial flexibility. Now, the question becomes what they’ll do with it.

The first few days following the World Series are generally pretty quiet from a transaction perspective, but Matt Arnold and company were busy. They made one of the first trades of the offseason over the weekend, dealing veteran Mark Canha to the Tigers for minor league reliever Blake Holub. Holub has a mid-90s fastball and late inning experience but is not a highly regarded prospect: Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs left him off his list of the top 34 prospects in the Tigers organization this spring, but did mention him among 21 honorable mentions.

What the Brewers also got in the deal, however, is further financial savings. Before the deal they were going to have to make a decision on Canha this week, either exercising his $11.5 million club option for 2024 or paying him a $2 million buyout and allowing him to become a free agent. Now they’ll owe neither: The Tigers presumably will exercise Canha’s option, and either way the Brewers are out from under the obligation.

While it wasn’t the news they wanted to hear, the Brewers likely also saved some money when Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery days after the end of the season. Woodruff is scheduled to be eligible for arbitration one final time this winter before becoming a free agent a year from now, and MLB Trade Rumors projected his 2024 salary at $11.6 million. Now that Woodruff will be unavailable to pitch for most or all of the season it’s likely the Brewers will not pay him that much. They may look to negotiate a smaller contract or a multi-year deal, but they could also consider non-tendering Woodruff and allow him to become a free agent instead.

Saving Millions

Canha’s departure and Woodruff’s likely salary cut may have saved the Brewers as much as $23 million on their projected Opening Day payroll for 2024. At present Cot’s Contracts projects their Opening Day payroll at just under $111 million, but that includes $12.5 million for Woodruff. Even at $111 million they’d be down from $118 million in 2023, which was also down from $131 million in 2022. The Brewers’ Opening Day payroll hasn’t been in the top half of MLB teams since 2012.

Of course, the offseason is far from over and the Brewers could still look to make moves that will add salary. Those moves likely won’t include a major addition on the free agent market, however: The market is light on potential high impact talent behind Shohei Ohtani and Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of whom will likely be well outside the Brewers’ price range. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com did list the Brewers as a potential fit for two of his top 25 free agents: Former Mariners outfielder Teoscar Hernández and former Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins. 

The 2023 season reminded everyone that higher expenditures don’t always correlate with a successful season. The Mets, Yankees and Padres, three of this year’s top six Opening Day payrolls, did not reach the postseason while the Brewers (21st), Marlins (22nd), Diamondbacks (24th) and Orioles (27th) did. It takes more than a boatload of cash to build a winning MLB team, but the teams that are willing to spend certainly have options that others do not. It’s extremely unlikely, for example, that the Rangers would be celebrating a World Series win this week without recent free agent additions Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi. 

While no one expects the Brewers to spend on that level, there are certainly gaps on their roster that could be addressed this offseason. Opportunities to improve are out there, and the Brewers would appear to have freed up some resources to pursue them.