The Clock is Ticking on Mark Canha

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Photo via Mark Canha - Instagram

Andruw Monasterio and Mark Canha

Andruw Monasterio and Mark Canha

While the Diamondbacks and Rangers face off for a World Series trophy this week, the Brewers are one of 28 teams waiting for them to start the offseason clock.

The first deadlines of the 2023-24 MLB offseason and the official opening of the free agent market happen five days following the conclusion of the World Series, which could wrap up as soon as Wednesday if either team sweeps the next three games. Even if they stretch the series out, however, sometime next week teams will be required to make decisions on their contract options for next season. The Brewers have one of the more interesting choices to make on that front.

He only played in 50 games as a Brewer this season but Mark Canha’s arrival in Milwaukee clearly correlated with their turnaround. He batted .287 with a .373 on-base percentage (the best of any Brewer who batted more than 25 times) and hit five home runs, including an eighth inning go-ahead grand slam in September. Along the way he’s reached out to Brewers fans on multiple occasions and generally done everything a player could do if their goal was to stay in Milwaukee.

And, for what it’s worth, Canha has roughly 11.5 million reasons to want to stay. The two-year contract Canha signed with the Mets will expire in November unless the Brewers exercise his $11.5 million club option for 2024 (they’ll owe him a $2 million buyout if they don’t). The Mets covered almost all of Canha’s remaining 2023 salary when they dealt him at the trade deadline, but the Brewers are on their own for this decision and its associated costs.

Easy Choices?

On the surface any decision on Canha looks like an easy one. He was a highly productive player at the end of last season, seems to be a good clubhouse influence, was popular with the fans and is available on a one-year commitment. As a patient right-handed hitter he slots in nicely in a top of the order that otherwise projects to be lefty-heavy. Furthermore, letting him leave would send a risky message to fans who already feel the organization isn’t spending enough.

A deeper look, however, does raise some questions. While Canha was excellent as a Brewer in 2023, he struggled as a Met before coming to Milwaukee. In fact, Canha’s .800 on-base plus slugging as a Brewer was higher than the mark he’s posted in any of the last four seasons and the second-highest of any of his nine MLB seasons. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections, which take his past performance into account to reasonably estimate future production, have him in line for a .734 OPS next season. 

In addition, there’s a strong likelihood that Canha’s offensive production will decline in coming years as part of baseball’s normal aging curve. Canha will turn 35 in February, and the modern game hasn’t been kind to players in the late years of their careers. Baseball Reference’s league splits data divides players into four groups by age, and their 2023 data shows a few things of note here:

• Players in the age 26-30 window appeared in more than twice as many games and batted more than twice as often as players in the 31-35 group, and players in the 31-35 group played in almost ten times as many games as the 36+ group.
• Players who make it into the 31-35 group and especially the 36+ group were almost certainly better players throughout their careers, or they wouldn’t have played in the majors so long. Even so, players in the 31-35 group had 13 fewer OPS points than the 26-30s (.727, as compared to .740) and the 36+ group lost 17 more points (.710).

Perhaps rewarding Mark Canha for his strong finish to the 2023 season is the right thing for the Brewers to do. It would keep a right-handed bat with good plate discipline in their lineup and, perhaps also importantly, it would start the offseason with a positive statement to the fans about the organization’s commitment to winning in 2024. If the Brewers do bring him back, however, they need to be prepared for the possibility that he’ll struggle to repeat his success from 2023.