When is it Time for Prospects to Play?

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Photo: Jeffrey Hyde via Wikimedia Commons

Monte Harrison

Monte Harrison

Depending on which day fans have watched the Brewers this spring, they might have gotten a very different impression on the Brewers’ short-term future in their lineup.

In their Cactus League Opener on February 25, for example, the Brewers filled their outfield with top prospects. Garrett Mitchell led off and played center field, flanked by fellow top prospects Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer in left and right. All three are 24 years old or younger, but they’ve all reached the highest levels of the minors and are waiting for an opportunity to take the next step.

The next day the Brewers went in a completely different direction, putting three outfielders in the lineup that were all new or returning to the organization. Monte Harrison, Skye Bolt and Tyler Naquin were in the lineup from left to right. That trio is an average age of 29 and a half, and together they’ve logged nearly 700 major league games across seven organizations.

The six of those players and several others are all in Brewers camp competing for playing time in the outfield alongside Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker. There won’t be room on the Opening Day roster for all of them, so in the weeks ahead the organization will have to choose. The decision is at least in part both practical and philosophical as it requires them to wrestle with the question, “When is the future?”

Numbers and Superlatives

The outfield prospects in camp have done nothing but perform at every level of the minors. They’ve accumulated numbers and superlatives from scouts, and the Brewers in turn have made sure fans see those performances and taken the opportunity to get excited. At some point all of that needs to lead to an opportunity to live up to the hype in the major leagues, however. It’s not easy to determine when a player is ready to make the jump to the sport’s highest level, but until they do there will always be a question mark around what they could be.

Meanwhile, the alternatives in camp all offer something different. Harrison is an elite athlete, and the Brewers may know that better than anyone, as they’re the organization that drafted and developed him before sending him to Miami in the Christian Yelich trade. Bolt is a career .313 hitter with a .399 on-base and .526 slugging in three seasons in AAA. Naquin has more MLB experience than everyone else in this conversation put together and was a productive everyday major leaguer just two years ago.

In the infield, another longtime top prospect is engaged in a similar battle this spring. Brice Turang was a first round pick in the 2018 draft but he’s had to wait for his turn to play in the majors, logging 175 games at the AAA level over the last two years. When the Brewers traded Kolten Wong this winter it seemed to open the door for him to play at second base, but that requires the Brewers to make the decisions to keep him on the roster and in the lineup over longer-tenured players like Abraham Toro and Mike Brosseau.

There’s also a long-term factor at play here. Bringing a young player to the majors allows him to accumulate service time and starts the clock until he’s eligible for arbitration and eventually free agency. This creates a challenge at times as teams have an unfortunate incentive to keep their top prospects in the minors until they can maximize their value. In the past the Brewers have also placed a high value on maintaining organizational depth: Young players often still have options remaining and can be sent to the minors without having to be exposed to waivers, while veterans are more likely to either have to be exposed to waivers or to have a clause in their contract allowing them to opt out.

This year more so than any other in recent memory the Brewers have roster decisions to make that all follow the same theme: Would they rather have the reliability and low risk of a veteran, or is it finally time to see what the prospects can do?