What is a "Bad Win"?

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Paul Bievers/ Packers.com

In many ways the Packers’ victory over the Chargers was a “bad” win. You can certainly make a compelling argument that they didn’t deserve to win, as they were out-gained by 178 yards, they allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 503 yards, and they were helped by some fairly dubious penalties, or in a few cases, a lack of penalties. 

The offense struggled mightily for the second week in a row, especially after the loss of Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Rodgers had a very hard time finding any open receivers against a very lackluster Charger defense. On the surface this all seems worrisome. Sometime in a win like this you worry that previously undiscovered weaknesses have been exposed and that opponents down the line will be able to take advantage of them.

But this was not that game. Most of what went wrong on Sunday can be easily explained, and most of it is unlikely to repeat itself. The biggest takeaways:

The offense will get better

The offensive struggles are almost entirely attributable to injuries, and the injury situation will improve soon with the impending return of Davante Adams. Hopefully Ty Montgomery’s ankle injury isn’t that bad as well, but the return of Adams should be a godsend to Randall Cobb and James Jones as he forces teams to devote serious defensive resources to account for him. Montgomery was starting to grow into that role, but Adams has a full year and the trust of his quarterback under his belt, and they should take a quantum leap forward once he is back and fully healthy. 

Opponents aren’t really doing anything special to slow down the Packer attack. The offensive line was actually pretty good on Sunday, Rodgers actually made several very good throws which were dropped, and James Starks dominated in the running game. 

The Packers are deep enough to absorb the loss of one and even two receivers, but they have their limits. Once they are back to a full complement of NFL talent at the position, they will roll, and given that they have a bye next week to provide some extra rest and relaxation, that will be very soon indeed.

The Chargers are extremely well-designed to attack the weakest part of the Packer defense

The Packer defense was both better and worse than it looked on Sunday. It was worse in the sense that it easily could have allowed two additional touchdowns as the Chargers failed to convert 4th down plays twice near the Packer goal line, one of which ended the game. In that sense, the Chargers were essentially two plays away from scoring 34 instead of 20.

On the other hand, the Packer defense actually played a very similar game to what they usually play. Mike Daniels, Datone Jones, and Mike Pennell played extremely well and maintained a consistent pass rush throughout the game. Daniels’ game will be slightly overshadowed by a baffling encroachment penalty which gave the Chargers a first down, but he was an absolute terror in both run and pass defense, and he continued to show why he is the Packers’ best defensive player. Mike Pennel probably had his best game as a member of the team. Damarious Randall had a very good game including on the final Charger pass attempt, and Casey Hayward looked better than he has in weeks.

The problem for the Packers was in the linebacking corps where tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green, and running backs Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver, dominated the middle of the field. The play of those four often had Clay Matthews out of position, and took safeties out of deep coverage which is partially why Sam Shields had so much trouble with Keenan Allen.  Linebacker, and inside linebacker in particular has been a troubling position for the team all year, and when the Chargers made the Packers adjust personnel to cover this weakness, it opened up plays down the field as well.

Compounding everything, few, if any quarterbacks get rid of the ball as quickly as Philip Rivers. He has one of the most unusual and fast throwing motions in football and few quarterbacks are as quick and accurate. Rivers is playing behind a poor offensive line, but his ability to anticipate his receivers’ routes almost makes it a moot point. The Packer pass rush was in his face all day, but he still managed to deliver precision pass after precision pass. 

Most teams do not have one, let alone two tight ends the caliber of Gates and Green, and the same can be said of Woodhead and Oliver, at least in the passing game. Rivers is one of the few elite quarterbacks this year who is both healthy, and has his full complement of skill position players intact. The Charger offense had an excellent game plan against the Packer defense, but fortunately almost no other team will be able to replicate it.

Two Final Notes

1. Eddie Lacy looks out of shape. 

I understand that people have been saying this about him forever and that he consistently proves them wrong, but I think there is genuine reason to be concerned at this point. Power has always been a part of his game, but this year he has been far less elusive than in any previous season. Lacy has had an ankle injury this year and he is almost certainly still suffering the effects of it, but Lacy himself has said his ankle is “all right” and the team has downplayed any injury.

It’s also possible that the lingering injury is responsible for Lacy not being in proper football shape.

What is clear is that the team has also noticed. James Starks got the majority of work in the game and he clearly deserved it. On the season he’s averaging 4.6 ypc to Lacy’s 3.9 behind the same offensive line, and looks much better on the field. Lacy’s biggest moment on Sunday was getting popped for a fumble that could have been disastrous. Lacy rarely was squared up by defenders like this last season unless he was the one inflicting the punishment. It is a problem worth watching. Hopefully the bye does him some good.

2. Jeff Janis had two huge plays against the Chargers, but it was telling that both came off of broken plays where Rodgers had to improvise. 

Other than that, the young receiver was still frequently out of position and could not be counted on to run proper routes. Janis can be explosive with the ball, but he is still showing a lack of football awareness, and he is still an easy cover for NFL defensive backs. Don’t get too excited.