Photo Credit: Evan Siegle, packers.com
The first game of the post-Mike McCarthy era wasn’t much different than what came before. While the Green Bay Packers won and put up an impressive point total, many of the bad habits that plagued the team all season remained. The Atlanta Falcons have the worst defense in football, and that, more than anything, was the reason for Green Bay’s success. Even the defense chipped in seven points.
The Packers next face the polar opposite of the Falcons in the Chicago Bears. Green Bay already has a victory over the Bears as part of an electric fourth quarter rally in week one with Aaron Rodgers playing on one leg. That injury showed everyone the secret to beating the Bears. While they have the number one defense by most metrics, and they are coming off a truly impressive victory against the Los Angeles Rams, there is still some reason for skepticism. More importantly, there is a recipe for taking them down. The Packers’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread (between 4-6%), but if they can knock off their biggest rival, the playoffs will suddenly become downright plausible.
The Lesson No One Learned
The Bears are superbly talented in the defensive front seven and at one corner position, but they also have enormous holes all over the roster. The Packers exposed those holes in week one during their comeback, but since that strategy was based more on dumb luck than on any strategic insight by McCarthy, no one paid attention and no one has copied them. My biggest worry about this game is that the Packers don’t figure it out themselves.
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The Bears will hit your quarterback if you let them, and Kyle Fuller, their best corner, will mostly take away your best receiver. A smart team can work around these issues pretty easily, and in week one the Packers did just that. The Bears dominated Rodgers in the first half of game one, sacking him twice, knocking him out of the game and sacking backup DeShone Kizer twice more for good measure. Rodgers came back unable to move, which forced him to alter his game. To compensate for his inability to buy time with his legs, he instead started throwing the ball quickly, on time and in rhythm. His quick releases meant that the explosive and highly paid Bear pass rush was unable to get close, and the Packer receivers were up to the task of exploiting the Bear secondary.
One of the biggest problems for Green Bay is the importance of a number two receiver against Chicago. Prince Amukamara is a bad corner who benefits immensely from the pass rush in front of him, and Geronimo Allison had his way with Amukamara in the second half of game one, catching four of five targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. Amukamara was also on Davante Adams for a 51-yard strike from Rodgers. The Bears have struggled with their opponent’s number two receiver all season, where they rank only 14th by Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Without Allison, either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Equanimeous St. Brown (or Jake Kumerow) will need to have a big game.
More importantly, Rodgers is going to need to adjust his game. If Rodgers tries to buy time with his legs, he’s going to get killed and the offense won’t score, but if he can deliver the ball quickly enough to render Khalil Mack a non-factor, they should score points, and they don’t need to score many, because the Chicago offense is awful.
The Chicago Offense is Awful
The Bears are having a good year, and deserve praise for it, but I would caution them against getting too confident. Much of that success is based on 25 interceptions, six more than Miami, which ranks second in the category. Their 34 takeaways overall also lead the league, and it’s unlikely to remain consistent going forward. They need that defense to be successful because they have a big albatross hanging around the offenses neck, named Mitch Trubisky.
Trubisky is often talked up as one of the bright young stars at his position. In reality, he’s been average at best, ranking 16th in DVOA. He’s thrown multiple interceptions in four games, and he’s extremely inaccurate. Trubisky does some damage with his legs which helps to prop up his numbers, and he benefits from scatback Tarik Cohen’s catch-and-run ability, which lets him pile up big numbers with simple throws, but Trubisky is a weakness, and when your quarterback is a weakness, you are vulnerable. The Packers are banged up on defense, but a healthy Jaire Alexander and Bashaud Breeland should allow the team plenty of shots at turnovers. Staying ahead is key, as the Bears are adept at protecting a lead, but if you can make them chase, you can bury them.
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Why It Won’t Happen
The problem for the Packers is that they have shown no ability to actually change their ways. If the offense plays they often do, they will expose Rodgers to the Bear pass rush. If Rodgers forces passes to Adams, they end up targeting Kyle Fuller. And if they let themselves get behind, they will expose their own porous run defense. If the Packers are smart they can keep their season alive, at least for one more week. If they play their normal game, they’ll have a fitting end to their playoff hopes. I suspect this is exactly what happens.
