Christian Watson’s Breakout Boosts Offense

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Photo by Kyle Bursaw - packers.com

Christian Watson vs. Dallas Nov. 13, 2022

Christian Watson vs. Dallas, Nov. 13, 2022

Christian Watson is one of the most athletic players ever to play the wide receiver position, and the most important player on the Packers’ offense going forward. After a disappointing start to his career defined by injuries and high-profile drops, Watson finally broke out with an electric 107-yard, 3 touchdown performance, leading to the Packer’s to a huge upset of Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys. Watson pulled off a backflip to celebrate his first score, a 58-yard bomb that Aaron Rodgers put right on the money for the team’s longest receiving touchdown of the year.

The Packers traded up to nab Watson with the 2nd pick of the 2nd round, betting on his ceiling instead of waiting for more polished prospects like Georgia’s George Pickens or Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce. Until Sunday that decision looked like a mistake, but betting on Watson’s talent was never a short-term investment. The best comparable for Watson may actually be Rashan Gary, the extremely athletic edge rusher who took some time before turning into one of the league’s most dominant defensive players. Watson has similar upside, and similar flaws.

Kent Lee Platte of Pro Football Network created a metric called Relative Athletic Score (RAS) which aggregates NFL combine testing metrics into a single number based on a prospect’s speed, size, agility, and explosiveness. Since 1987, only 11 receivers have better RAS scores than Watson. Many of them, such as former Lions’ star Calvin Johnson, and current Tampa Bay Buccaneer Julio Jones, are Hall of Fame level talents. The most similar player to Watson is former Packer Javon Walker, who had one of the greatest individual seasons in Packer history in 2004 with 89 receptions for 1382 yards and 12 TDs before injuring tearing his ACL the following season. While Watson was considered a raw prospect, no one else in the draft was even close to him as a pure athlete.

That said, athletic ability isn’t everything, and there are legitimate concerns over Watson’s hands, and injury history, both of which have popped up this season. Availability has been an issue, and even in this game, Watson was forced to head to the medical tent for a short period. Hopefully NFL training alleviates some of his health issues going forward. On the hands issue, I wonder if they did themselves a disservice by having such a short leash for Watson after some of his earlier drops. Davante Adams also had poor hands when he entered the league, catching just 55% of targets in his first two seasons despite a high percentage of schemed, easy, short throws. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was even worse, catching under 50% of his targets over his first two seasons.

Both players improved, and both needed targets to do it. Watson is a burner like MVS, but he’s already a much better, and more complete route runner. He had a few drops early on Sunday, but sticking with him paid off in a huge way. While he continues to develop, he will likely drop a few more, but when he does make the catch, he is a threat to score every single time. The payoff with worth some leeway.

On the defensive side, special teams ace Rudy Ford provided a similar boost, and should absolutely figure into the team’s plans moving forward. Ford is a favorite of special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia, and he is on the team primarily as part of their effort to shore up their coverage units. The Packers may have struck gold.

Excellent Break

Ford is unlikely to have another two-interception game any time soon, but on his two picks of Dak Prescott he showed good technique and an excellent break on the ball. Even setting aside the splash plays, he is a clear upgrade from Darnell Savage, who saw some time at nickel corner in this game with Ford playing safety. The move was forced by injuries to starting corner Eric Stokes, but it’s a wonder why the team didn’t make this movie earlier given how poorly Savage has played.

Savage is an outstanding athlete, but he is undersized for a safety, and over the last two seasons, he has become a reluctant hitter. That skittishness has impacted his aggressiveness generally, and he’s often late to the ball for no discernable reason. Savage’s inconsistent play has also impacted Adrian Amos, who is often caught in no man’s land attempting to cover for Savage’s failures.

Ford is about 20 pounds heavier, and a much more aggressive downhill player, which is all that Amos, and this defense needs out of the position. Ford wasn’t tested much on deep routes and if he has some issues with discipline on deep routes and double moves, I wouldn’t be surprised, but Savage already has those issues. In fact, one of the reasons Ford had his interceptions is due to the Cowboys’ scouting on Savage. Normally the Packers’ safety has vacated the zone on those plays, leaving the middle wide open for easy yards. Ford kept to his assignment, which is all a defensive coordinator can ask. No matter what else happens on defense this season, Ford should retain the starting job.

The Packers face a huge uphill battle to make the playoffs, needing to pass Washington to even approach San Francisco, Dallas, or New York, but they finally managed a conference win over a playoff team, they gained an important tiebreaker over Dallas, and they now have a plausible chance to right the ship. They have no margin for error and will need to take care of business against lesser teams, starting with Tennessee, and their number one overall run defense, on Thursday. Hopefully Christian Watson isn’t just a one hit wonder.