The fact is that a fully healthy, or even mostly healthy Packer team wins this game rather easily. Every Aaron Rodgers interception would have been a big gain or touchdown if he were healthy, and if Davante Adams wasn’t knocked out on a despicable blindside hit by Thomas Davis, the Packers would have completed the comeback. Instead, the banged up defense couldn’t stop Christian McCaffrey in the passing game or Cam Newton scrambling, and the offense just didn’t have enough to keep up.
Chip On His Shoulder
I do not believe Brett Hundley could have won this game, however it was clear that Aaron Rodgers was impacted by his broken collarbone as his throws lacked zip, and more importantly, distance. Rodgers made smart reads as he always does, but his arm simply couldn’t cooperate, which led to an unusually high number of turnovers as well as several big incompletions on out patterns. This was clearly a surprise to Rodgers as he attempted many throws he simply couldn’t make, and failed to adjust to his limitations with shorter throws or more frequent run calls.
All interceptions are bad, but every one of Rodgers created a huge swing in the game. His first likely should have been a big gain to Davante Adams, who had beaten his man, and his second, a deep shot to Randall Cobb, probably should have resulted in a touchdown.
Jordy Nelson also managed to get behind his man on the third pick of the game, but by the time the ball arrived a few yards short that huge opening became double coverage. Until he is fully healed, Rodgers needs to play to his strengths and keep his throws in the short-to medium range.
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That said, even with all of the turnovers, the Packers still had a very real shot to tie the game in the waning minutes, and they likely would have done so if Davante Adams was still on the field. The incredible cheap shot by linebacker Thomas Davis that landed Adams in the concussion protocol, but did not even result in an ejection for Davis, completely changed the game. Adams, who caught five of seven targets for 57 yards and a touchdown before exiting, dominated the Carolina secondary. He was open on nearly every play, and contributed yards after the catch consistently. Adams would likely have been the target on the final slant pass of the game, which was fumbled away by Geronimo Allison, and based on the spacing on that play there is a good chance that Adams would have taken it all the way.
There’s an even better chance that the Packers would have simply produced enough offense to avoid having to recover an onside kick in the first place.
Carolina played well, but they also received several breaks including a ridiculous call on a touchdown pass to Damiere Byrd.
The play was originally ruled incomplete as Byrd landed half out of bounds, however the replay official inexplicably overturned the call, ruling that half of Byrd’s posterior landed in bounds first. This is simply ridiculous for a number of reasons, and even the on-field official was unable, or unwilling to provide any rationale, stating that Byrd was “down by contact in the end zone.” It is possible the the Panthers would have scored on the this drive anyway, but it’s more likely that they would have settled for a field goal try and in any case, awarding a touchdown was unfair.
Given the state of the defense, the offense needed to come through with more than 24 points, and it simply wasn’t in the cards, and with their playoff hopes dashed, they can begin thinking about the offseason, including how exactly they plan to deal with their defense.
The Capers Conundrum
It is well established that the most important part of any defense is the pass rush, and when you look to understand the issues the Packers have, it’s almost always tied up in pass rush. While the secondary has suffered injuries to key starters for two consecutive seasons, that situation would have been mitigated if the team possessed a consistent pass rush. The best gift you can give a secondary, especially an inexperienced or bad secondary, is time, and a consistent pass rush from your front four is crucial. Capers’ defenses specialize in generating pressure from blitz packages, which leads to a lack of consistency even if it does generate sacks. The result is that when a blitz doesn’t get home, the secondary is hung out to dry, and that was frequently the case against the very mobile Cam Newton.
It is far too easy for opposing teams to neutralize Nick Perry and Clay Matthews, and while Mike Daniels does create some interior pressure, the sum of these parts is lacking. Matthews may have actually changed the game had he not fallen down on more than one occasion.
The bottom line is that Capers, Thompson, luck and the players themselves all share some blame for the Packers’ defensive performance. And given the number of injuries and turnovers by the offense, it wasn’t even that bad of a performance. That said, injuries are the norm in the NFL, and Capers’ system does not cope well with them. It is in some ways a very balanced system, but that balance comes at the cost of specialization upfront. This isn’t the best game to judge the defense on, but the edge rushers had a few chances to steal this one for the team by getting to Newton, or at least speeding up his internal clock. Instead a stretched secondary was unable to deal with tow of the more talented interior receiving threats in Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey along with the wideouts, and Newton had ample time to make simple throws to his run-after-catch specialists.
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