The Packers Advance in Impressive Fashion

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Jim Bievers/ Packers.com

Last week I wrote an optimistic preview of the Green Bay – Washington game, and thankfully, most of what I wrote came to pass. Washington’s lackluster defense allowed the offense to get going, and the Packer defense continued to dominate especially considering that offense and special teams put them in several bad situations early on. It was a great win and a fun game to watch, certainly the most entertaining game of the weekend. The problem is, there’s really no reason to think there will be any carryover effect into next week (with one possible exception). To explain why this is the case, it’s instructive to look at what did work against Washington, and examine whether or not the same things will work against the Cardinals.

Twelve Frustrated Men

The Packers started this game terribly, with the offensive line getting manhandled, Aaron Rodgers missing receivers, and Micah Hyde making every wrong decision possible on Special Teams, but at the start of the second quarter we saw the return of one of the early staples of the Packer offense: Rodgers inducing a defensive penalty and taking a shot.  His first crack at this resulted in an incompletion to Quarless, but it served the dual purpose of frustrating the Washington defense, and seemingly getting Rodgers some confidence. On the next play he hit James Jones, who was covered by former Packer Will Blackmon, for 34 yards and eventually capped off the drive with a 12-yard strike to Randall Cobb on another free play.

I usually like to avoid discussing abstract concepts like confidence as they relate to professional athletes, and this is just speculation, but I think this drive was important for Aaron Rodgers. The number of hits he has taken, and the poor line play this season has done a number on Rodgers’ internal clock. Over the last several games it is clear he has panicked, and he has been seeing pressure whether it is actually there or not. Rodgers is typically a master of keeping his eyes downfield and waiting for the big play to develop, but that element of his game had been destroyed by the poor line and receiver play this season. In this game, receivers were actually getting open, and Rodgers was either not seeing them or airmailing throws off his back foot, until this drive.

I suspect that once Rodgers got a look at some tape over on the sidelines and saw receivers running open everywhere and saw that the pressure was actually quite manageable, that he managed to snap himself back into shape. Having a twelve-men-on-the-field penalty is the perfect catalyst for this kind of thing as it is a pressure-free throw where you don’t have to worry about making a mistake. After his bomb to Jones he seemed like a different player. He hit receivers on short routes coming out of their breaks, he threw another good deep ball to Davante Adams, who impressively caught everything thrown his way, and all of this efficient passing got the running game going.

Up 24-18 near the end of the 3rd quarter, the Packers started running, and running, and running some more. Washington isn’t really able to defend the run any better than the pass and both Starks and Lacy (and even Randall Cobb) were able to capitalize for several big gains. They were especially adept at running left, as various backs had runs of 22, 30, 11, and 9 yards behind the left side of the line leading up to the drive that essentially iced the game. It was a fantastic all-around performance. The Packers got consistent production and big plays from all facets of the game.

The Problem

Here’s a question: What do you think tells you more about the Packers’ ability to beat the Cardinals; the game against Washington, or the game they played two weeks ago against the Cardinals? The Cardinals are still one of the NFL’s best, most complete teams, and unfortunately it’s hard to pick out much that has changed since the Cardinals destroyed the Packers.

The Packers ran well against Washington mostly because everyone runs well against Washington. It’s a huge weakness that makes the entire defense weaker overall as they have to devote extra resources to stopping the run and can be fooled by play-action. But where Washington was just 22nd against the run this season, Arizona was 2nd.  Those easy yards won’t be there to take pressure off of Rodgers and the passing game next week.

Washington is also just 19th against the pass, and the Packers made a lot big plays off an old friend. Will Blackmon was targeted on 10 of Rodgers 36 throws, by far the most of any Washington DB or LB. Rodgers completed 6 of those passes for 88 yards and a touchdown, good for a 122.2 passer rating. Against the rest of the secondary Rodgers completed just 15 passes for 122 yards. There are a lot of weak links in the Washington secondary to pick on, but even absent the excellent Tyrann Mathieu, this isn’t true of Arizona. The Packers will never have a plus matchup next week against the Cardinals like they did this week with Blackmon, and this type of game plan isn’t reproducible. I’m sorry to say that any positive trend that you may see coming out of this game isn’t likely to carry over to next week, and the most likely result is very similar to what happened last time the Packers played the Cardinals. They are simply a much better team led by an extremely intelligent coach, and there is not a lot about them that a team like the Packers can exploit. But I don’t want to leave on a down note, so here are a few things to give us all just a small shred of hope.

Hope Springs Eternal

1. The Cardinals are weak on defense against pass-catching running backs. In fact, you may recall that last game the Packers’ lone touchdown came on a 28 yard pass to Eddie Lacy. You may also recall that James Starks was a very small part of the game plan, partially due to yet another fumble. Starks can be a major weapon against the Cardinals if the Packers trust him, and since he actually out-snapped Lacy on Sunday, and since it was Lacy, not Starks who put it on the ground this week, we may get a healthy dose of Starks.

2. It is at least possible that the team will have David Bakhtiari back, and if they don’t, JC Tretter was at least competent at left tackle. Last time these two teams faced each other a completely overwhelmed Don Barclay allowed four sacks at left tackle. This is not all Barclay’s fault as he is decidedly a backup and the Arizona pass rush is excellent, but it’s likely that the line is healthier next week, and consequently, it’s likely that Aaron Rodgers has more time to throw.

3. If the team can keep Aaron Rodgers clean in the pocket it’s at least possible that some of the issues he’s been having with imagined pressure go away, and a fully functioning Aaron Rodgers is capable of just about anything.

4. The Packer defense is still quite good in its own right, and the one thing that can keep you in a game against a superior opponent is turnovers. While Aaron Rodgers was getting beaten and battered last time, the Packers defense did manage to sack Carson Palmer twice, hurry him seven times, and pick off a pass. A lot of luck goes into creating turnovers, but the Packers have the kind of defense that makes turnovers more likely, and if they can win the turnover battle, they can be in this game.

5. With Sam Shields out, Micah Hyde and Demetri Goodson have occasionally seen a lot of action. Hyde was absolutely abused by Jordan Reed on Sunday as the Redskins looked to exploit this matchup early and often. Damarious Randall and Quentin Rollins both suffered minor injuries during the game which normally would have meant a healthy dose of Demetri Goodson. Goodson just isn’t an NFL-caliber player and this could have been a major issue. Fortunately, the team gave 31 snaps to Ladarius Gunter instead. Gunter was a bit of a pre-season all-pro, and as luck would have it he managed to flash that talent again on Sunday, this time in a playoff game. If Sam Shields can finally return from his concussion, and Randall and Rollins are both healthy, and Gunter can maintain this level of play, the Packers will enter the Arizona game with a secondary capable of matching up with the Cardinal receivers as Goodson and Hyde are pushed down the depth chart.

6. Don’t look now, but in his last 6 games Tim Masthay has actually been much better than usual. His 42.4 net yards per punt ranks 7th among punters in that time, and is a significant jump from his 38.1 mark from the first 11 weeks of the season. Masthay has only allowed 28 return yards in that time period, good for fourth among punters. If he can keep this up, what was a weakness early might just be a hidden strength next week.

7. Even with all of this going for them, the Packers are still overmatched here, but the last potentially positive factor is luck. No amount of luck was going to help out the Packers in their last meeting with the Cardinals, the deficit was just too great. This time I’m at least confident the game will be closer, and if the Packers can keep it close, who knows what might happen?