While it’s certainly worrying that the Packer pass defense continues to struggle, a healthier offense can cover up many defensive deficiencies, and on Sunday afternoon a virtuoso performance from Aaron Rodgers and rookie running back Aaron Jones did just that. The Aarons rallied the team from a substantial deficit in one of the most thrilling games of the season, but they could be in trouble next week against Minnesota’s superb defense.
The Defense is Not Deep
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Let’s start by giving credit where credit is due. The Packer run defense was excellent, and while Ezekiel Elliott did rack up 116 yards, he took 29 carries to do it. Until the final drive he had runs of over four yards on just three of 20 carries, regularly putting Dallas in tough spots. Blake Martinez continued his outstanding season in run support, and the defensive line held up quite well against one of the NFL’s finest offensive lines. Even the pass rush played well, regularly pressuring Dak Prescott and forcing him to extend plays with his legs. The problem for the Packers is that Prescott is very good at doing so, and even before cornerback Kevin King left the game with a concussion, Dallas tore through the secondary like a hot knife through butter.
No Packer corner or safety stood out, and almost everyone had an embarrassing moment. Quinten Rollins, now in his third season, simply cannot keep up with NFL caliber receivers and often appeared to be standing still. Rollins has always had a questionable athletic profile, and while he had some decent plays in run support, when he found himself on Dez Bryant or Cole Beasley he was simply overmatched. On this play he was singled on Bryant, and engaged him a few yards off the line.
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Bryant easily disengages, and breaks inside.
The gain here was somewhat limited only because Bryant made the baffling decision to cut back, and was subsequently buried, but he should have picked up a first down on the play.
On this play, Cole Beasely easily jukes Rollins for a simple completion.
Rollins can’t afford to bite on fakes as he lacks the speed to recover. He is a willing tackler once he catches up to a play, but it’s too easy to pick up simple yards against him.
Damarious Randall had one of the plays of the game with his third quarter pick-six, however the interception itself was caused by a lucky bounce off of receiver Terrance Williams, and Randall picked up an inexcusable taunting penalty after scoring. Randall didn’t play a terrible game, but high profile mental mistakes continue to be an issue, and on the second-to-last play of the game he very nearly let Cole Beasley get behind him for a 75-yard touchdown.
If not for Dean Lowry, who never quit on his three-man rush, Dak may very well have hit Beasley for a ridiculous, game-winning play.
With King, Davon House and Josh Hawkins, the Packer secondary is capable of holding its own, and believe it or not, the defense didn’t even play that badly. Dak Prescott is just a very good quarterback, and his ability to buy time, especially on third down, can make any secondary look bad. That said, if any one of the House/King/Hawkins group is hurt, opposing offenses instantly know who to target. Randall can be a useful player in the slot, but he seems incapable of stepping up and playing outside. Rollins is taxed almost anywhere and instantly becomes the focus of the other team when pushed into service. Minnesota has a strong group of receivers when healthy, and if Randall or Rollins are forced to match up with Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs, it could be a long day.
Aaron Squared
Aaron Jones exceeded all expectations in his first start, racking up 125 yards on just 19 carried, and hauling in a very difficult nine yard catch that even a wide receiver would have struggled with.
Jones gained seven or more yards on nine of 19 carries, and those big plays were crucial. While the offensive line wasn’t quite back to normal with David Bakhtiari sitting out, they played well enough to give Aaron Rodgers time, and his receivers did not disappoint. Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks both made big plays down the field, and Davante Adams had one of his best games as a professional, catching seven of his 11 targets for 66 yards and more importantly, two touchdowns. His game winning catch was a thing of beauty, and he is now clearly among Rodgers’ most trusted targets. Rodgers sometimes gets too much credit as a one-man show, and while he was superb as usual, this game was a demonstration of just how good the rest of the offense around him actually are. Previous offenses would have struggled with a hampered Jordy Nelson, who pulled a hamstring at some point during the game. This version of the Packers has much more to work with, and it showed.
The Vikings
The bad news for the offense next week is that Jordy Nelson is a much bigger asset against the Minnesota Vikings. The severity of his injury is not yet known, but any time a wideout has a hamstring injury, it’s cause of concern. It is especially important to have a deep receiving corps against Minnesota because, to the extent Minnesota has any weaknesses on defense, it is at the back end of the depth chart in the secondary.
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Xavier Rhodes is one of the best corners in the NFL and has shut down the number one receiver of all Viking opponents so far, including the Saints’ Michael Thomas, the Steelers’ Antonio Brown and Tampa’s Mike Evans. That said, as impressive as Rhodes has been, the Vikings have been vulnerable to slot receivers and secondary receivers. The ideal Packer game plan would likely include sacrificing Jordy Nelson to Rhodes while Davante Adams and Randall Cobb work on Terence Newman, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. If Nelson can’t go, that puts a lot of pressure on Cobb and Geronimo Allison, with Allison coming off one of his worst games of the season.
In week three the Vikings faced Tampa Bay and won handily, but they did struggle with Buccaneers wide receiver DeSean Jackson. Jackson is a very good player, and with Mike Evans across from occupying Rhodes, he was able to beat Trae Waynes repeatedly, as he did here.
With Nelson and Adams playing together the Packers have a similarly talented one-two punch to Evans and Jackson, but the potential step down to Allison is a potentially huge factor.
Fortunately for Green Bay, the Viking offense is in rough shape having lost star rookie runner Dalvin Cook to an ACL tear, and playing backup QB Case Keenum. Stefon Diggs also left the game against the Bears on Monday with a groin strain, and if he were to miss the game, the Viking offense would be severely hampered. The Packers may not be in the greatest shape in terms of health, but this is a good time to catch the Vikings on a short week. If Nelson can go, they should continue their winning ways, and even if he can’t the Packers should still be healthy favorites.
