The Packers may not be as bad as their record indicates, but they are also clearly nowhere near an elite team as they continue to prove week in and week out. Aaron Rodgers played his worst game of the season, and a series of mistakes, injuries, and undisciplined play gave the Patriots too much to work with.
In the first half, Aaron Jones was the bright spot of the team as the young back outgained Aaron Rodgers on a per attempt basis, but Jones would also give away a crucial fumble in the second half, leading to a New England touchdown. Mistakes like Jones’ fumble were the theme of the game, as for every brilliant play, there seemed to be a counteracting terrible one, including a baffling unsportsmanlike conduct call on Jermaine Whitehead, which resulted in his ejection, and a roughing the punter call against Robert Tonyan. Sometimes Green Bay can overcome mistakes like this, but not against a juggernaut like the Patriots.
This is unfortunate because New England, and Tom Brady, didn’t play well and the game was there for the taking. Brady frequently missed open receivers and took unnecessary hits. Without injured tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots’ offense was no better than average, but it simply didn’t matter, as the Packer defense would stymie the Patriots, only to have the Packers’ offense or special teams snatch defeat from the jaws of victory time.
Safe Inefficiency
In the first half, Rodgers completed a high percentage of his passes, but for almost no yards. The Packers were taking the old school route of playing conservative on first and second down to create manageable third downs, which is how they almost always operate. Rodgers is famously one of the most careful quarterbacks in terms of throwing interceptions, but that comes at an ever-increasing cost, as Rodgers’ throws a ton of screens, and a ton of outside throws. The Packer offense doesn’t run a great deal of crossing routes over the middle, where traffic can sometimes create turnovers, and this is becoming an issue, as it results in receivers frequently coming back to the ball and failing to generate yards after the catch (YAC). YAC is in many ways the engine of the modern offense.
Stay on top of the news of the day
Subscribe to our free, daily e-newsletter to get Milwaukee's latest local news, restaurants, music, arts and entertainment and events delivered right to your inbox every weekday, plus a bonus Week in Review email on Saturdays.
Tom Brady is very likely the greatest short passer of all time, and much of that success is based around his ability to hit a player in stride, allowing for easy YAC. he did so early and often against Green Bay, and he is especially adept at hitting his backs going forward.
For the Packers, the preferred method for delivering the ball to Jimmy Graham and Davante Adams is for them to make a cut and come back to the ball. They do this all the time. It presents Rodgers with an easy target, and often a safe throw, but it also ends the play at the point of reception.
Yes, the Packers do throw down the field, sometimes to Adams, and often to rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the bread and butter Packer play is barely more efficient than a run, and it’s been that way for years, starting, to some extent, with the advent of the “back shoulder throw.” All teams have comebacks in their arsenal, including the Patriots, but because Rodgers relies so heavily on broken plays, and because it’s such a core concept of their basic scheme, true, lateral, “West Coast” routes are far too rare. In this game alone, Davante Adams caught all but one of his passes (a slant) on a comeback or bubble screen. The Packer route tree has been pruned to a shrub.
What Could Have Been
Even though Green Bay played an uninspiring game, the defense kept them in it, and they still had a chance to win until two separate disasters occurred. The first was an inexcusable roughing the punter penalty on Robert Tonyan with four minutes remaining in the third quarter on fourth-and-21. The game was tied, and the Packers would have taken over with good field position. New England would still punt on the drive, but this time they would bury the Packers at the seven, where Green Bay would once again give the ball back to New England on a careless fumble from Aaron Jones. Without those two mistakes, it’s entirely possible that the Packers win the game and remain alive in the playoff hunt. As it stands, they’re running on fumes, and third place in the NFC North.
