It is impossible to actually grade the players in a draft this early, and even though many outlets do just that, it’s a silly exercise. All you can do the day after the draft is assess the process that went in to making selections, and the value obtained. This past weekend Packer GM Brian Gutekunst and company got off to a fast start, but the back half of the draft left a lot of questions about just what they were thinking.
A Good Start
On the first day of the 2018 draft, Gutekunst got off to a fantastic start. The Packers owned the 14th pick, and as their time approached, they pulled off a coup. The New Orleans Saints sent the Packers the 27th pick overall, a 5th rounder, and most importantly, their 1st round pick in 2019, all to move up 13 spots in the first. The Packers, as we would learn, were focused on upgrading the secondary, and at that point they still had several acceptable players on the board. When the time came, they surrendered a 3rd round pick to move for Jaire Alexander, an extremely athletic corner out of Louisville. This entire sequence of events was reminiscent of Ted Thompson, showing a keen understanding of draft pick value, while also trusting their scouting enough to pounce on Alexander.
They spent their second round pick on another athletic corner, Iowa’s Josh Jackson, shoring up one of the weakest units in the NFL last year. This all made a good deal of sense, and both players have outstanding athletic profiles as measured by the “SPARQ” metric, to bolster outstanding production in their college careers. Alexander and Jackson have the potential to be high-level corners for years to come, and even if they don’t live up to their potential, the process around picking them was sound. They were arguably the best players available at positions of need, and they were shrewdly acquired. I was feeling very confident in the new front office, and the future of the team.
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Big Questions
Coming into the draft, consensus was that the Packers needed an edge rusher or two, a few cornerbacks, a receiver with star potential, and perhaps an offensive lineman. Edge rusher is one of the most important players in football, and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Packers would pounce on one at some point. It’s also true that it’s not wise to draft strictly for a position of need and that you should take the best player available, however the Packers possessed a lot of picks entering the draft which they freely traded to move around and get their guys. Given their willingness to be flexible with their picks, it’s odd that they never once found an edge worth targeting.
Green Bay would instead give up a 4th and a 5th rounder to move back into the 3rd round, which was not itself a bad idea, but spending the pick on Vanderbilt’s Oren Burks was an odd choice. Burks is another SPARQ superstar as he excelled in agility and explosion drills at the combine, but he’s not an edge rusher, and he’s very undersized for the position at just 233 pounds. Burks is adept in coverage, and in going sideline to sideline, but he needs a dominant defensive line in front of him to be productive. The Packers actually have a great defensive line, but it’s odd to take a player who is so reliant on what is in front of him to be productive. He’s athletic enough to possess a high ceiling, but given the Packers needs, its a bizarre, high-risk choice.
It got stranger. The Packers would take J’Mon Moore, a wide receiver from Missouri in the 4th. The Packers do need help at wide receiver, and in a vacuum, this wasn’t a bad pick, but Moore was one of three receivers taken over the next five picks. Moore, South Florida’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5th round), and Notre Dame’s Equanimeous St. Brown (6th round) are all tall and talented, but they will join a crowded group next season that includes Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, Trevor Davis, DeAngelo Yancey and Michael Clark. Moreover, as all of them were late prospects, it is unlikely that any will turn into the next Jordy Nelson any time soon, and Davante Adams and especially Randall Cobb benefit a great deal from another above average outside receiver.
It can be wise, later in the draft, to load up on a position with the idea that your odds of hitting on at least one good player increase, however the Packers will now bring at least nine receivers into camp next season, which means that at least three, and maybe four, will be sent packing. The Packer receiving corps isn’t deep, and if the team wanted to move on from anyone and everyone except Davante Adams I would not be shocked, but it was still a ton of resources to dump into a position when the team still has needs at edge and offensive line.
If the Packers had used their considerable wealth of additional picks to take a few late flyers at positions of need this would all be fine, but the Packers instead wasted a 5th round selection on J. K. Scott, a punter out of Alabama. The incumbent Packer punter, Justin Vogel, was a rookie last season and by most accounts punted quite well. Scouting punters in Green Bay can be difficult due to the weather, but Vogel was almost certainly the best Packer punter in years. Spending draft capital on a punter is never a good idea regardless of the situation, and the team could have at the very least taken a chance on picking up depth at a position of need. They would compound this error later by drafting a long snapper in the 7th round. 7th round picks aren’t worth much, but there’s no reason to spend even a small amount on the position.
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The focus on wideout and special teams left little to support the rest of the team. Cole Madison out of Washington State was a nice pick in the early 5th round. He is likely to play guard at the next level and should provide much-needed depth. That said, the only outside linebackers, or defensive ends picked by Green Bay were Cal’s James Looney, and Southeast Missouri State’s Kendall Donnerson in the 7th. 7th round players are no sure bets to even make the team, and if either is a significant contributor on the edge, it’s likely that something has gone terribly wrong.
Overall
The Packers went for top-level athletes early, and at the very least, Mike Pettine’s defense will have a quick, agile secondary, but the late focus on wide receiver and special teams robbed the Packers of chances to upgrade at true positions of need. Wide receiver was one of those needs, but there are only so many players you can carry on a roster. It’s hard to knock a draft that landed the team an extra first round pick in 2019 for virtually nothing, but the seeming lack of understanding of positional value was troubling. Hopefully these guys all turn into All-Pros and prove me wrong, but it’s one of the strangest drafts I’ve seen, and while it may have a high ceiling, this team still has a lot of work to do before the season starts.
