The Packers’ offense is a mess, suffering from a combination of poor quarterbacking, stale coaching and youth in the receiver corps. It has been trending downward consistently for years now, and at the end of the 2018 season the one thing we can be sure of is that there will be many, many changes.
The Packer defense has been almost as inconsistent, and almost as bad as the offense, but that’s about the only similarity between the two. The defense has been beset by injuries for years now, and it was often an excuse for Dom Capers in his latter days. The difference under Mike Pettine is that when the bodies have been there, so has his defense. While the offense is struggling in all circumstances, the defense clearly works, and that’s something to be optimistic about. In fact, the defense is probably far better than the numbers indicate, due to the offense and special teams unit consistently making life hard for them. In what is a lost season, Pettine and company are worth getting excited about. If new leadership at the top can squeeze another MVP-caliber performance out of Rodgers it will not be a long rebuild.
Pettine’s Tactics
Most defenses start with the pass rush, counting on pressure to assist their secondary. This is the platonic ideal of a defense in the minds of many, but it has its costs. On the defensive side of the ball, great edge rushers are expensive and tough to come by. It’s easy to get into a situation where you overpay someone like Nick Perry out of pure desperation, as Ted Thompson did, and Perry’s deal has been one of the worst in team history.
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Pettine’s past defenses have relied first, on corners, most notably Darrelle Revis. He works backwards, creating a secondary that can cover without compromise or extra help, and uses the freedom they provide to bring the pass rush from a variety of positions. The Packers don’t quite have the personnel to make this work consistently right now, but you can see how it will work in the future. The Packers entered the weekend leading the league in sacks, and even after a lackluster performance against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, they still rank third. Pettine’s blitzes and pressure packages can put a lot of pressure on a secondary, but the good news is the secondary has its anchor in Jaire Alexander.
Alexander has been one of the best corners in football despite his rookie status, and he’s already capable of sticking with elite receivers. He’s excelled in coverage, as a tackler and his attitude matches his play.
With Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark collapsing pockets on the defensive line, it hasn’t really mattered that Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are washed up. At least, it didn’t matter until people started getting hurt.
The Packers have a fair number of elite starters on defense, but several poor drafts have left them with almost no depth and injuries have undercut a promising turnaround. The team briefly ranked in the top 10 in pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic, and their pass rush has been far better than it was last season. Pettine’s scheme is solid, and with another injection of talent, don’t be surprised if the Packer defense is carrying the offense next season and beyond.
When Offense Kills Defense
This season, when the defense gives up points, the offense has often been at fault. While the defense got off to a tough start against Minnesota, allowing full field drives to open the game, they tightened things up after that despite the fact that they were ravaged by injuries. It was still 14-14 in the third quarter when Mike McCarthy decided to go for it on fourth and one, running Aaron Jones pointlessly into a stacked box. I agree with the decision to go for it, but the play call was terrible and that failure resulted in the Vikings taking over in Green Bay territory.
They would score on a short field goal, and the Packers were unable to respond, punting from their own 13. JK Scott would hit the ball just 43 yards, and the brutal Packer special teams unit would allow a 20 yard return, forcing the defense to defend a short field again as Minnesota took over at the Packer 33 yard line. Four plays later the Vikings scored their 24th and final points. Given how long they were on the field, their injuries and bad special teams play, the defense was actually quite impressive. It’s been a recurring theme this season.
Fourth and One
As I said before, I thought Mike McCarthy made the right decision to go for it on fourth and one in the third quarter, and the stats agree, but the play McCarthy called was representative of some of his worst tendencies. Running power into a line that knows power is coming is a recipe for failure. Power runs work best against spreads, and vice versa.
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But, what works even better is the quarterback sneak. Sneaks have a phenomenal success rate, and it’s strange that teams, and especially the Packers, are reluctant to run them. Not converting on fourth and one is literally a turnover, and when you have a play available that is successful between 75% and 90% of the time, it’s criminal not to use it.
