The Packers finally got a good offensive performance out of Aaron Rodgers and the passing game, but the defense ran into one of the smartest teams in football, and their flaws were laid bare.
If you need some context to help judge Matt LaFleur’s early exploits, look no further than the Philadelphia Eagles who are at the forefront of incorporating advanced analytics into their play-calling. Research shows QB sneaks on fourth and one are successful about 90% of the time. The Eagles used them to great effect. The Packers, on the other hand, failed to pick up short yardage routinely. Most analysts also agree that when scoring a touchdown to go up by seven, you should try for a two-point conversion to go up by nine, and a full two scores. The downside is just a standard seven-point lead, which is still fine. The Eagles also made the right call in going for two, even though it failed.
More than anything, Carson Wentz and company relentlessly attacked the weak points of the Packer defense, and Mike Pettine was unable to adjust. The Eagles’ offense, which ran primarily out of “12” personnel (meaning two tight ends and one running backs), is essentially what the Packer offense is supposed to look like. Green Bay likes to use nickel as their base defense with an extra safety playing inside linebacker. Oren Burks, who should be returning soon, was slated to start the season in this position. Raven Greene was doing an admirable job before he was lost for the season. Against the Eagles, third stringer Will Redmond spent most of his time there, and he simply wasn’t equipped to bring the necessary run support or cover Philly’s outstanding tight ends.
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Philadelphia coach and former Packer Doug Pederson used his best available receiver, Nelson Agholor to occupy Jaire Alexander, and instead went after corner Kevin King coming off his worst game of the season. King played very well matched up against Alshon Jeffery, but Pederson simply shifted the attack to his tight ends, and a powerful run game, which the light Packer front just couldn’t handle. Eagle running backs Jordan Howard, and Miles Sanders combined to average 6 yards per carry, and the Philly offensive line routinely opened massive holes against an overmatched Packer defense.
While the Eagles picked at weaknesses, the Packers chose to stick to their game. Unfortunately, Philadelphia’s run defense is the strength of the team, and too often, (10 times) Aaron Jones was called on to carry the ball on first down. Jones was stuffed on all but one of those carries, and by the advanced metric EPA (Expected Points Added), those first down runs cost Green Bay about four points. Aaron Rodgers had great success when targeting Davante Adams, but Adams suffered a turf toe injury late in the fourth quarter, and without him the passing game ground to a halt. Geronimo Allison had his best game of the season, almost single-handedly getting the Packers a touchdown at the end of the first half with two sensational catches, but Marques Valdez-Scantling was inconsistent, and while Jimmy Graham had respectable numbers, he dropped several balls that would have made the difference.
The Eagles were one of the worst teams in the league at defending receiving running backs, and the loss of Jamaal Williams to a concussion early in the game made a large dent in the Packers’ playbook. It was unquestionably a dirty hit by Derek Barnett as Williams was being held up, and defenseless, and it caused a very scary moment in which Williams had to be carted off. Aaron Jones is still a work in progress in the passing game, and Williams is a surprisingly important offensive player for Green Bay. He entered the game ranked 5th as a receiving back by Football Outsiders advanced metric DVOA, and the team doesn’t really have an adequate backup for him.
Late in the fourth quarter the Packers had a golden opportunity to tie the game with first and goal from the one-yard line. LaFleur and Rodgers elected to throw four straight passes, even though Davante Adams was out, and all four fell incomplete. While the Eagles do have a strong run defense, short yardage runs (and QB sneaks) are among the most successful plays in football, and not even attempting one is a strange decision. Aaron Jones even powered in for a similar score earlier in the game.
That’s really the difference between the Eagles and Packers in a nutshell. The Eagles ran because the Packers couldn’t stop it. The Packers ran early because running is what they do, and they didn’t run when they should have because, well, I’m not even sure.
Waiting in the wings for the Packers are the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are very similar to the Eagles in that it is very difficult to run on them, and, like the Eagles, they are more than happy to abuse poor run defenses with a good offensive line and running back Ezekiel Elliott. If Matt LaFleur would have coached a tighter game, the Packers likely would have won last week. If he learned from the experience, they will win this week.
