At the quarter mark of the NFL season not much about the Packers seems outstanding, including their conventional and advanced metrics, but early season numbers can be deceiving. When healthy, every single unit on the team has been good-to-great. Against the Bears, Mike McCarthy did an excellent job of protecting his quarterback with quick hitting plays, help in blocking from the TEs and backs, and a surprisingly powerful running game from starter Ty Montgomery and rookie Aaron Jones.
Beating the Bears is not that impressive, but I have been waiting all season for the Packers to blow someone out, and they finally did exactly what they should.
The Packers will now start a two game road trip with a visit to Dallas with a few additional rest days under their belt. If David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga finally recover and solidify the line, the Packers should be favorites. The Cowboys have struggled on defense, and while they remain a threat on offense, McCarthy and company have, over the course of the first four games, slowly turned the Green Bay defense into an absolute strength.
It’s Always the Cowboys
There are a few teams that the Packers just seem to play constantly even though they are not in the division, and the Cowboys are one of them. This will be the third time this calendar year Green Bay has faced Dallas, having most recently knocked them out of the playoffs in the Divisional round in an absolute classic. Aaron Rodgers won a fun shootout behind two Ty Montgomery TDs, an amazing interception from Micah Hyde, and the catch of the year from tight end Jared Cook. This meeting finds a Packer squad much stouter on defense, while the Cowboy defense continue to labor against good offenses.
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The bright spot for Dallas has been DE Demarcus Lawrence, who has already recorded eight sacks in this young season, matching his career high in just four games, but while Lawrence has been outstanding (if a bit fluky) the rest of the defense has been sorely lacking in production, culminating in a 35-point pantsing at the hands of the Rams last weekend. Dallas is extremely top-heavy on defense, and while corner Orlando Scandrick recently returned from an injury, they are still missing several important cogs including linebacker Sean Lee, who is in danger of missing the Packer game.
Last season Dallas was especially susceptible to tight ends, one of the reasons the Packers made excellent use of Jared Cook in the playoffs. Without a fully healthy line, Martellus Bennett has pulled double duty as an extra tackle this season and it has been detrimental to his pass receiving, but if Bulaga and Bakhtiari both return, I expect a big game from Bennett and Lance Kendricks, who should be able to exploit the middle of the field.
The Cowboys have also failed to adequately cover opposing secondary receivers so far, ranking 22nd according to Football Outsiders. In the Packer offense, Davante Adams, who is likely to miss this game after an extremely dirty hit by the Bears Danny Trevathan sent him to the hospital, holds that role. In his place, look for Geronimo Allison to build on his game-winning reception from the Cincinnati game. Missing Adams and possibly Ty Montgomery (ribs) isn’t ideal, but Allison is an adequate backup, and works as a nice compliment to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, while rookie Aaron Jones showed himself to be more than capable if Ty misses time.
I viewed Jones as the steal of the 2017 draft. He is slightly undersized, but he fell as far as he did mostly because of a small school pedigree coming out of UTEP. The fact is that his combine measureables were as good as any back in the draft and he dominated his small school competition. He’s a receiving threat just like Montgomery, and he showed nifty vision and footwork against the Bears in scoring his first NFL touchdown. If the two tackles can go, the Packers should have no trouble scoring.
The Run-Stopping Trio
With Mike Daniels missing a few games, second year player Kenny Clark has stepped up in a major way. Clark isn’t an elite pass-rusher like Daniels, but he is already among the best run-stoppers in the league, and his ability to take on double teams makes things much easier on everyone around him.
On this play, you can see Clark stand up two Bear offensive linemen, with Blake Martinez prepared to plug the hole. Running back Jordan Howard is forced to cut back, but Dean Lowry has also won his battle, and the delay allowed for Morgan Burnett, playing in the Nitro linebacker spot, to come around an end and take down Howard for minimal game. Clark doesn’t show up in the box score much and often goes unnoticed, but he makes plays like this routinely.
Daniels is a true master of all trades, and excels in run defense as much as in pass rush. Together, they’ve helped to open things up for inside linebacker Blake Martinez, who is having an excellent season. Martinez, like most Packer defensive players, struggled mightily last season with an awful secondary behind him. Now that he can focus on playing downhill, he’s turned into a difference-maker in the run game, something the Packers haven’t had in many years.
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Kevin King will face another tall task along the lines of A.J. Green and Julio Jones this weekend against Dez Bryant. Quarterback Dak Prescott has had trouble getting Bryant the ball this season, relying mostly on Terrance Williams, Ezekiel Elliott and the aged Jason Witten for consistent production, but the lack of big plays has hurt the offense overall. They will likely test the rookie corner early and often. Fortunately the Cowboy offensive line has taken a step back, and the Packer pass rush should be able to get to Prescott with some regularity. The second year QB has also had consistency issues in the pocket, and defenses are starting to take away his ability to scramble right, where he is most accurate.
The Packers managed to knock off the Cowboys with a decimated defense last January. Now that they are almost fully healthy, and reloaded in the secondary, they are well positioned to shut down a team like Dallas. The Cowboys aren’t bad, and winning road games against good teams is always difficult, but Green Bay is built to stop a team like Dallas.
Finally, let’s all laugh at Jay Cutler, giving his all as a wide receiver.
