The Packers’ Unsurprising Loss to the Titans

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Photo: Evan Siegle - packers.com

Allen Lazard vs. Titans Roger McCreary Nov. 20, 2022

Allen Lazard vs. the Titans' Roger McCreary Nov. 20, 2022

Two Sundays ago, the Packers knocked off Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys, and they did it in a very Mike McCarthy way. Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay ended specifically because he never adjusted his offense either to his personnel, or to the new reality of football defenses in the NFL. McCarthy doesn’t have a lot of input on the defensive side of the ball, but it’s worth noting that Aaron Rodgers’ kryptonite is the two-high safety shell, where both safeties take away essentially all deep passes, and force the quarterback to make throws in front of them. Dallas plays less of this than any other team in the league. Even though they absolutely have the personnel to do so, and it works against the Packers every time, they instead decided to stick with their normal defense. Aaron Rodgers tore it apart, as he does. Mike McCarthy is going to Mike McCarthy.

The problem for Green Bay this year, and against Tennessee on Thursday, is also that they Mike McCarthy-ed a bit too hard and failed to adjust to obvious matchup problems presented by the Titans. Tennessee has the league’s best rush defense by an enormous margin, and while Green Bay relies heavily on Aaron Jones, this was a game where they needed to lean on Aaron Rodgers. More than that, Rodgers needed to take some chances down the field, even at the risk of throwing an interception, especially while the game was close. Once the Packers were forced to pass to catch up in the second half, their opportunity to run effective play action, or deception plays had passed.

Rodgers’ conservative play has been an issue all season for the Packers as defensive coordinators (outside of Dallas) have determined how to manipulate Rodgers into throwing inefficient passes. On RPOs (Run/Pass Options), a staple of the Packer offense, it’s become apparent to everyone that Rodgers makes his read before the snap. Most quarterbacks make their reads on RPOs after the snap, based on how the linebackers react. Rodgers, on the other hand, relies solely on whether he is facing a heavy box or not, and crucially, Rodgers also always takes the play clock down to zero. This tendency has always bitten the Packers a bit with delay penalties, but it’s really hurt them this year with defenses changing the box count at the last second, either running in an extra linebacker, or pulling one back into coverage. Rodgers’s almost always makes the “correct” read on RPOs, but one second after the snap, that read is no longer good.

The fact is that it’s too easy to stop the Green Bay offense, and that when you limit dynamic plays, regardless of how many passes Rodgers completes, the Packers lose. Opposing coordinators know this and focus on stopping it. This season, Rodgers has achieved a Yards per Attempt over seven in an individual game four times. The Packers have won all four games. That includes the Patriots game where he threw an interception and completed just 60% of his passes, his second lowest completion percentage of the season. They scored 27 points and won anyway, because the passes he completed did real damage. The entire question for Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers going forward should be about how to create big plays reliably. Taking what the defense gives them has failed miserably.

The Eagles and Jalen Hurts

The 2020 draft will likely go down in history as one of the best ever for quarterbacks. The Bengals took Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick and almost immediately made a Super Bowl. With the fifth pick, Miami selected Tua Tagovailoa, who is currently first in ESPN’s QBR, Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and EPA/Play. At six, the Chargers took Justin Herbert, who is having a down year, but has already shown elite potential, and is still a top-10 quarterback by most metrics.

This Sunday, the Packers will face Jalen Hurts, the fifth quarterback taken in that draft. Hurts lasted until the 53rd pick, well into the second round, but in his third year he’s been almost as good, and in many cases better than his draft class peers. Hurts is fifth in QBR, fourth in DVOA, and sixth in EPA/Play, and this year he’s excelled at using his mobility as a runner, but also to buy extra time as a passer.

Hurts fell in the draft for two reasons. The first is that he’s on the small side at just 6-1, although he was the best athlete in his class among quarterbacks. The second is that he transferred from Alabama to Oklahoma for his final college season, and evaluators are often skeptical of transfers who leave elite programs for more playing time. In this case, that skepticism was completely unjustified. For one thing, the Alabama quarterback that took over was Tua Tagovailoa, and no quarterback was going to beat him out. Aside from that, Hurts was still an elite quarterback virtually his entire college career, and he would have played over almost anyone except Tua.

But he did fall, and the Eagles pounced. They’re now one of the NFC’s best teams getting elite quarterback play from a player on a second-round rookie deal, and perhaps no team in the league has a brighter future. They’re in great salary cap shape, they’ve drafted well at receiver, having picked Alabama’s Devonta Smith, who leads the team in receptions, in the 2021 draft. They’ve also managed to bolster their roster through trades, getting AJ Brown for a few draft picks from the Titans, and immediately extending him. Brown is just 25 years old, leads the team in receiving yards, and has solidified himself as one of the best receivers in the league. The Eagles’ pulled off much of what the Packers have attempted over the past three seasons, and now they’re reaping the benefit.

Which brings us back to the 2020 draft. Between Justin Herbert going sixth and Jalen Hurts going 53rd, one more quarterback was taken. That quarterback was Jordan Love, taken by the Packers with the 26th pick. While Burrow, Tagovailoa, Hurts, and Herbert were among the 14 most accurate passers in college football in 2019 (Herbert being the lowest of the group with a completion percentage of 66.8%), Love was 53rd with a pedestrian 61.9%. Even in Love’s most accurate season, where he completed 64% of his passes, he ranked only 32nd. Completion percentage isn’t a perfect proxy for projecting college quarterbacks, and you will occasionally see inaccurate passers like Josh Allen develop into good professional quarterbacks, but it is exceedingly rare.

I’m still not sure what the Packers saw in Love that made them take a chance on a trade-up to get him. I am sure that they would have been well served to sit back a bit, get the receiver they so desperately needed, and then take a chance on Hurts.